Wednesday, September 8, 2021

Why I Love To Blog: Reason #45 -- The Language Continues To Evolve -- Nothing About The Bakken -- September 8, 2021

Locator: 10010LANGUAGE.

If you want to maintain your sense of humor and/or your sanity, do not read this post. It has nothing to do with the Bakken except one slight connecting dot. 

So, here goes. 

I'm reading / re-reading David Abulafia's 700+ page opus on the history of the Mediterranean Sea: The Great Sea: A Human History of the Mediterranean, c. 2011.

I came across a term I did not recall seeing before, "Sublime Porte." I will let readers google it. One hint: it's a metonym. [And that's the one connecting-dot to the "Bakken," also a metonym.]

I have rarely used the term "metonym" on the blog. After seeing "Sublime Porte" I wanted to link one of the posts in which I used the word, metonym.

I happened across several posts on the blog in which I used "metonym," but this post I do not recall, from September 19, 2018:

From buzzfeednews:

In the essay, Ghomeshi wrote about his name becoming a "metonym for everything from male privilege to the need for due process" and about being shamed and humiliated in the wake of the sexual assault allegations against him.

Does anyone recall Ghomeshi? 

I had completely forgotten all about Ghomeshi.

I misspelled Ghomeshi's name while googling and was immediately confused. There are two "Ghomeshis," Jila and Jian, brother and sister, and both with same / similar interests. 

One was accused of sexual assault some years ago, and when googling the back story, I found myself reading about Jila. I thought it strange a woman was accused of sexually assaulting several women .... and then realized I was reading about the XX individual, the "sister" of the XY individual, the "brother" who was actually accused of sexual assault. 

Googling Jila Ghomeshi, I came across this article, near the top if not the top, suggesting it has widespread "appeal":

BIPOC or IBPOC? LGBTQ or LGBTQ2S+? Who decides which terms we should use?

This article was fascinating, mostly because of this:

It is incumbent on us to use the level of granularity that fits the context and when unsure, ask the people we are introducing or speaking about how they want to be identified. Where group membership is contested (for example, should women include people who do not menstruate? Should people who menstruate be called women?) opting for a superordinate term (adults, humans, people) is one way for non-members to avoid taking a side.

That paragraph fascinated me because not less than thirty-five minutes earlier I read a Fox article, "Person-A Non Grata: AOC mercilessly mocked for using gender-neutral term to describe women."

Link here: https://www.foxnews.com/media/aoc-mocked-term-menstruating-person-describe-women.

In case that link breaks, the lede:

Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, D-N.Y., was roundly mocked on Twitter for using the term "menstruating person" instead of women in a recent interview. 
On Tuesday, Ocasio-Cortez appeared on CNN’s "Anderson Cooper 360" to discuss Texas Gov. Greg Abbott’s statements on the Texas Heartbeat Act which prohibits abortions after six weeks. 
She claimed that the law was actually not "about supporting life" and instead was about controlling "women’s bodies" as well as "any menstruating person." 
"None of this is about supporting life. What this is about is controlling women’s bodies, & controlling people who are not cisgender men. This is about making sure that someone like me as a woman or any menstruating person in this country cannot make decisions over their own body," she said.

Why is this important?

Jila Ghomeshi's article was dated May 25, 2021, just a few months ago. It's hard to believe AOC did not read that article.

It is risky to "blow-off" AOC as an idiot. I don't know if she is well-read or not, but my hunch is she is well-read, and she is meeting a lot of folks and holding strategic meetings with well-read folks, even if she is not well-read. I've always maintained that folks who get "to the top" are not dumb. They get to the top for a reason.

On another note, good, bad, or indifferent, language continues to evolve. 

Whether you like her or hate her, or somewhere in between, perhaps agnostic, I wouldn't blow off AOC as an idiot. She knows what she is doing and each day she becomes a more formidable politician. Fox can write disparaging articles about her but my hunch is she will be in office (if she wants) longer than I will be alive. 

Think Cher. 

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Metonym

Later: I should have added this to the original post above ....

Originally posted January 19, 2015.
Trope: A literary trope is the use of figurative language – via word, phrase, or even an image – for artistic effect such as using a figure of speech. Kenneth Burke has called metaphor, metonymy, synecdoche and irony the "four master tropes."

I think we all "know" irony and metaphor even if we don't always use the former correctly. The word "metonym" is less well known but used all the time, such as "Wall Street" to refer to the US financial sector, or "Hollywood" to refer to the US film industry.

I see "synecdoche" often but never seem to remember what it means. Very similar to synonym but a bit more imaginative, such as "hired hands" for workers; "bread" for food; "cat" for lion, and so forth.

Early on with the blogging I discussed how "the Bakken" was used in at least three different contexts. I began using "the Bakken" as a literary trope for US unconventional oil some years ago.

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Barrel of Monkeys One

WMB -- September 8, 2021

The feature story: is North Dakota's oil industry finally bouncing back? Link to Felicity Bradstock.  I will post that as a stand-along post.

It's important to note that I've "lost that lovin' feeling." I no longer have an unconstrained emotional attraction to the Bakken I once had. Now that I understand it and know its potential, I'm much less attracted to it. I am still inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken but I think the two are mutually exclusive. I'm not sure that makes sense; if not, it's because of my inability to articulate it better on the fly.

Thinking strategically: The Keystone XL was a national strategic pipeline. But some folks cannot think strategically.

Never underestimate Resident Biden's ability to screw things up. Kills the Keystone XL first day in office. Now, Russian oil shipments to the US set to surge following Hurricane Ida. Link here. Or direct to Bloomberg

  • Western Canadian Select (WCS) would easily replace the loss of Gulf of Mexico (M) oil.

Meanwhile, the price of MARS crude oil hits a one-year high amid lingering Hurricane Ida supply disruptions. Link here. Or direct to SPGlobal.

  • Mars trades at WTI plus $1.50 / bbl.
  • nearly 77% of Gulf of Mexico crude oil output remains offline
  • onshore infrastructure damage delays platform restarts
  • but refineries are restarting faster than oil from the gulf
  • if Keystone XL was in operation, the loss of Mars oil would not be an issue
  • these are "heavy" oil and WTI does not help
  • that's why Russian oil shipments to the US are about to surge

But, having said all that, talk about a mixed picture. This just tells me  .... well, it tells me a lot ... LOL. From the API today, link to Julianne Geiger.

Wow, the data points, all from the API, numbers rounded:

  • weekly crude oil inventory dropped by 3 million bbls;
  • the 2021 crude draw so far: 65 million bbls
  • for context, the SPR can hold 720 million bbls; currently holds 620 million bbls
  • inventories dropped but US crude oil production rose 100,000 bopd to 11.5 million bopd
  • this is despite most of GoM shut in
  • distillates are most interesting: continuing to plummet; dropped another 4 million bbls this week;
  • that 4 million bbls is double the previous week, slightly less than a decrease of 2 million bbls
  • Cushing inventories rose by almost two million bbls; and the previous week, Cushing inventories also rose by more than two million bbls
  • all those (faux) hand-wringing stories about oil shut in in the GofM after Hurricane Ida and then these numbers
  • yes, I know: the type of oil from the Permian (in Cushing) is light oil vs heavy oil coming from the Gulf but no one would ever know that if only listening to CNBC.

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Natural Gas

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here

Williams (WMB): bullish US LNG export activity buoys pipeline operator Williams' growth forecast. Link here. Or direct to Platts.

  • two more Gulf export terminals under construction
  • northeast takeaway capacity a factor for G&P business
  • Williams will keep annual growth project spending steady at $1.2 billion through 2026
  • Williams handles about 30% of US natural gas volumes
  • CEO thinks export business is going to grow dramatically
  • US LNG feedgas demand:
    • currently: 11 Bcf/d (2021)
    • 2026: 15 Bcf/d
  • LNG export terminals:
    • currently: six in operation (in the US, in 2021)
    • 2022: seven
    • 2025: eight (based on current construction)
    • four or more could be sanctioned by the end of 2022
  • much more at the link
  • it's amazing: when I started the blog back in 2007, folks like Pickens said natural gas would be the "bridge" to renewable energy; nothing has changed;
  • WMB:
    • on another "down" day for the market, WMB was up a half-percent during normal trading hours and up another quarter percent after hours; trading at $24.81
    • 52-week high is $28.35
    • the annual dividend, $1.64, which, by the way, goes ex-dividend tomorrow, September 9, looks "safe";
    • the quarterly dividend, 41 cents is payable September 27, 2021
  • tea leaves suggest the dividend will remain unchanged in December, but then could be increased significantly in 2022

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here

EIA: boosts late-2021 spot natural gas price estimates, as Ida, slower injections take toll; link here;

  • 4Q21 Henry Hub spot price forecast raised 54 cents to $4/MMBtu
  • agency lowers expected 4Q21 gas marketed production by 420 MMcf/d

Ovintiv With Four New Permits; WTI Flirts With $70; Two Wells Released From Confidential Status -- September 8, 2021

Active rigs, from today's daily activity report:

$69.30
9/8/202109/08/202009/08/201909/08/201809/08/2017
Active Rigs2511616655

Twenty-five active oil and gas rigs:

  • CLR, drops one; down to eight active rigs

Four new permits, #38545 - #38548, inclusive:

  • Operator: Ovintiv
  • Field: Westberg (McKenzie)
  • Comments:
    • Ovintive has permits for four Wisness State wells in NWNE 16-152-96; 
    • the wells will be sited 995 FNL and between 2210 FEL and 2270 FEL

Two wells released from confidential status:

  • 37882, conf, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Burgess 4-14-23-158N-100W-MBH, Winner, NDIC reports no data;
  • 37883, conf, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Sylvan 4-11-2-158N-100W-MBH, Winner, NDIC reports no data;

Five producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

  • 36376, 2,544, Whiting, Sorenson 44-34-1H, Grinnell, NDIC scout ticket still shows this as drl/NC, no production data;
  • 37271, 1,344, CLR, Kate 12-19H, Big Gulch, first production, --; t--;l cum --;
  • 37507, 1,137, CLR, Kennedy 13-31H, Dimmick Lake, first production, 6/21; t--; cum 60K 7/21;
  • 37269, 2,538, CLR, Kate 14-19H1, Big Gulch, first production, --; t--; cum --;
  • 37270, 1,783, CLR, Kate 13-19H, Big Gulch, first production, --; t--; cum --;

The Slawson Osprey Federal Wells Have Been Updated -- September 8, 2021

These wells are tracked here.

The wells have been updated. Several have just come off the confidential list.

The Whiting Olson Wells In Dollar Joe -- September 8, 2021

Five new permits, September 7, 2021: #38540 - #38544, inclusive:
  • Operator: Whiting
  • Field: Dollar Joe (WIlliams)
  • Comments:
    • Whiting has permits for five "Olson" wells: the Richard Olson; the Ryder Olson; the Mariah Olson; the Marlys Olson; and, the Scott Olson.
    • the wells will be sited in lot 2 section 1-155-97; 271 FNL and between 1791 FEL and 1911 FEL 

The parent well in that drilling unit:

  • 16387, 376, Whiting, Ron Olson 31-1HCE, Dollar Joe, t5/10; cum 104K 7/21; a lousy well from the beginning, but it held the lease by production; open hold frack: 1.6 million 20/40 sand and 0.7 million 40/70 sand; 18 stages

The graphic: