Brent: Back To $70 -- Happy Days Are Here Again -- May 31, 2021

This is so cool. On May 20, 2021, I wrote:

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 

Over on twitter earlier today, someone asked, "where are all the $70-Brent bulls now?"

My reply: "Quietly buying Chevron stock."

See ten-year history here.

April 12, 2020: Brent was selling for $9.12 / bbl. That was one year ago.

So, when a twit asked "where are all the $70-Brent bulls now," I replied:

"Quietly buying Chevron stock."

Today, only eleven days later, $70-Brent:

Covid-19 Vaccination Freedom -- North Texas -- May 31, 2021

I'm inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken. 

Likewise, there seems to be a certain euphoria in north Texas as "things" get back to normal and folks "de-mask" figuratively and literally. 

We will know in two months whether this was a good idea or not. Some say we were Neanderthals.

Some policies put in place under the Trump administration are now paying dividends.

The big disconnect right now: why the president is not pushing the FDA to fully approve the Covid-19 vaccinations currently being used in the United States. Trump would have pushed for full unqualified approval two months ago.

There are two issues to be considered: safety and efficacy.

I am unaware of any other drug or any other vaccine that has undergone so much political scrutiny and has been administered to so many folks in such a short time. The efficacy appears to have been proven. All one needs to do is look at global rates of immunization and global rates of infection. Exhibit A: Israel.

Safety: that's a bit tougher. 

Short-term, the vaccines have been determined to be very, very safe. 

Long-term safety is yet to sorted out, but if one considers the outcome of natural infection (death, prolonged hospitalization, symptomatic disease without hospitalization, asymptomatic disease, natural immunity for some unknown reason) vs 65% to 95% prevention of moderate-to-serious disease or no disease at all, it seems the "safety" argument becomes less concerning each day as more folks receive the vaccine. 

Anti-vaxxers continue to debate the safety of "routine" childhood vaccinations given for decades which means the "safety" argument for any vaccine will go on forever and ever. For me, that train left the station decades ago.

Now, back to north Texas. Sophia and I went to Target today to get some food items for her tea party. The parking lot was incredibly busy, as busy as I've ever seen it. It was amazing.

A quick scan around the parking lot and entrance doors suggested about half the folks were wearing masks, half not wearing masks. Inside the store, some employees were wearing masks, others were not. It seemed about half the folks inside the store were wearing their masks. Some wore their masks around their necks suggesting they were unaware of Target's new policy. I don't know what Target's policy is here in Texas but it sounds like they are following the CDC's advice: if fully vaccinated, masks not needed.

There was definitely a feeling of excitement. Perhaps I was transferring my own feelings but it certainly felt like a day of "freedom." 

In north Texas, if one is not fully vaccinated it is expected that one wear a mask.

If one is fully vaccinated, one is expected to wear a crown or a tiara with a "VC" medallion.

Fully vaccinated, here I am with full regalia when visiting Target:

 

-- photo by Sophia

Note the confirmation code and the lone star of Texas.

• the first digit, "3": one of 23 Covid regions in Texas;
• "W": white male
  
• "89B" unique designator

The little rectangle to the viewer's left is the US flag, black and white.

Sophia, under the age of twelve, is not yet vaccinated and she still wears her mask.

Initial Production For Wells Coming Off Confidential List This Next Week -- May 31, 2021

The wells:

• 37830, conf, WPX, Dakota 1-36HUL, Heart Butte, no production data,
• 37677, conf, MRO, Ortman USA 34-31TFH, Reunion Bay, no production data, Three Forks first bench, 20,854 feet; 1280-acre spacing; geologic top, TF1: TVD - 10,803'; 
• 37378, conf, CLR, Rodney 7-29H, Cedar Coulee, no production data, 
• 36552, conf, Oasis, Thelen 5297 12-6 7B, Banks,
  

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
3-2021	27756	69257
2-2021	26040	78451
1-2021	26191	78649
12-2020	5646	13772

• 37250, conf, MRO, Hoss 41-3TFH, Killdeer,
  

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
3-2021	27485	21362
2-2021	23553	18115
1-2021	31129	22087
12-2020	35709	19883

• 36551, conf, Oasis, Thelen 5297 12-6 6T, Banks,
  

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
3-2021	17554	40754
2-2021	21443	66211
1-2021	17090	52053
12-2020	6507	14087

• 36549, conf, Oasis, Thelen 5297 11-6 5T, Banks,
  

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
3-2021	13151	45372
2-2021	17602	64272
1-2021	22093	65064
12-2020	12759	36171

• 37521, conf, WPX, Dakota 1-36HB, Mandaree, no production data, 
• 37376, conf, CLR, Rodney 5-29H, Cedar Coulee, no production data,
• 37251, conf, MRO, McGowan 11-2H, Killdeer,
  

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
3-2021	28333	22113
2-2021	27092	19365
1-2021	30339	21668
12-2020	49191	33428

• 36994, 2,433, MRO, Hull 41-28TFH, Chimney Butte, t12/20; cum 114K 3/21;
  

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	3-2021	31	18505	18604	19273	21960	20539	69
BAKKEN	2-2021	28	27982	27787	26725	26359	24394	0
BAKKEN	1-2021	31	33097	33109	38496	28771	26452	0
BAKKEN	12-2020	30	31852	31350	46717	27217	24982	0
BAKKEN	11-2020	4	2860	2749	6065	2070	1874	0

Wells Coming Off The Confidential List This Next Week -- May 31, 2021

Monday, June 7, 2021: 48 for the month, 69 for the quarter, 150 for the year:
37830, conf, WPX, Dakota 1-36HUL,
37677, conf, MRO, Ortman USA 34-31TFH,
37378, conf, CLR, Rodney 7-29H,
36552, conf, Oasis, Thelen 5297 12-6 7B,

Sunday, June 6, 2021: 44 for the month, 65 for the quarter, 146 for the year:
37250, conf, MRO, Hoss 41-3TFH,

Saturday, June 5, 2021: 43 for the month, 64 for the quarter, 145 for the year:
37377, conf,  CLR, Rodney 6-29H1,
36551, conf, Oasis, Thelen 5297 12-6 6T,

Friday, June 4, 2021: 41 for the month, 62 for the quarter, 143 for the year:
36549, conf, Oasis, Thelen 5297 11-6 5T,

Thursday, June 3, 2021: 40 for the month, 61 for the quarter, 142 for the year:
37521, conf, WPX, Dakota 1-36HB,
37376, conf, CLR, Rodney 5-29H,

Wednesday, June 2, 2021: 39 for the month, 60 for the quarter, 141 for the year:
37251, conf, MRO, McGowan 11-2H,

Tuesday, June 1, 2021: 38 for the month, 59 for the quarter, 140 for the year:
None.

Monday, May 31, 2021: 38 for the month, 59 for the quarter, 140 for the year:

Sunday, May 30, 2021: 38 for the month, 59 for the quarter, 140 for the year:
None.

Saturday, May 29, 2021: 38 for the month, 59 for the quarter, 140 for the year:
36994, conf, MRO, Hull 41-28TFH,

Notes From All Over -- Mid-Day Edition -- Memorial Day -- May 31, 2021

What a great country. Wow, I'm in a great mood. I love our second-floor apartment with balcony. The door to the balcony is wide open and fresh Texas air is blowing through the house. Due to the rain and low-pressure system it's quite cool outside; a bit humid, but the fresh air is nice. 

The technology is wonderful. I can't say enough about Hulu, Amazon Prime, Apple (although the latter is starting to disappoint me -- Apple may be losing some key markets to Amazon). 

Movie: Young Frankenstein, Mel Brooks, Gene Wilder, Terri Garr, Cloris Leachman, Marty Feldman, Peter Boyle, Madeline Kahn. What an incredible cast. 

Covid-19: bottom line, as I see it:

• we needed a wake-up call;
• some great things came out of the global response;
• I'll probably be better off five years from now because of Covid-19 and the global response;

China: 

• was there ever a two-child limit?
• I know the one-child limit that China encouraged as early as 1978, and then strict enforcement began in 1980
• interestingly enough, according to wiki, there were enough loopholes in the one-child policy that it was really a two-child policy (1979 - 2015)
• for example, ethnic minorities were "exempt" from the one-child policy
• so, now we have the three-child policy
• Greta: "Say what?"

Three-child policy: by the way, the Chinese three-child policy was the top story in many news outlets over the weekend. It must be a big deal. Who knew?