Thinking Out Loud -- November 16, 2020

October 1, 2020:

• BRK-B: 212
• DFS: 58.91

Today, November 16, 2020:

• BRK-B: 231
• DFS: 78.55

Appreciation since October 1, 2020:

• BRK-B: 9%
• DFS: 33%

I'm getting tired of reports that Warren Buffett can't find anything better than his own stock to buy. 

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 

And, yes, I bought DFS. I had too much BRK-B. Had to diversify. LOL.

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For The Archives
Dow Sets Record

Updates

November 24, 2020: all-time high; breaks through 30,000. New number, around 30,100.

Original Post

"Dow" soars to a record high. Yahoo!Finance link here. It looks like "29,934" is the number to beat going forward -- not the close, but an intraday high.

The Dow rose more than 450 points, or 1.5%, topping its previous record intraday high of 29,933.83 from Nov. 9. The S&P 500 also increased, while the Nasdaq hugged the flat line. Shares of airlines, cruise lines, hotels, and restaurant companies surged anew as the latest vaccine data suggested consumers might return more enthusiastically to these businesses. 

Moderna’s stock jumped more than 9% to a record high shortly after market open. 

Moderna became the latest major drug-maker to announce upbeat data for its COVID-19 vaccine candidate, building on hopes that an effective inoculation will soon be available.

Later in the day, the New York manufacturing index came in a bit lower than expected, but it didn't phase the market a whole lot. 

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Flush With Cash

From Bloomberg at Yahoo!Finance:

Eight months into the pandemic, Americans’ household finances are in the best shape in decades.It’s a seemingly incongruous thought, what with the widespread business lockdowns earlier in the year and coinciding surge in unemployment -- and it certainly doesn’t apply to all families equally. But it points to just how strong the U.S. economy was going into the virus outbreak, and how powerful the combined monetary and fiscal response was from the Federal Reserve, Congress and the Trump administration.

Record-low mortgage rates, reflecting the ultra-easy Fed policy, have prompted a steady wave of refinancing and allowed homeowners to reduce monthly payments or tap equity. Americans are also holding more cash, helped in part by stimulus from the government. [And huge amounts of money not spent on vacations, traveling, dining out, car maintenance, unnecessary doctor appointments and elective surgery, and Starbucks.]

Households’ debt service burdens have eased considerably, too, a complete departure from the 2007-2009 financial crisis that required years to mend. That in turn bodes well for consumer spending and its ability to power the economic recovery through a period marred by a violent spike in virus cases.

The only question? How fast can Biden and the squad screw this up? Maybe we need another 4 - 6 month lockdown. LOL. Just imagine how flush with cash we would all be. 

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From Last Summer
Getting The Charcoals "Going"

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Love Hearing From Readers! LOL!

CDC's Weekly MMWR Report On Influenza-Like Illnesses To Include Chinese Flu -- November 16, 2020

Link here. 

Influenza-like activity remains BELOW the national baseline. 

Hardly a map of concern.

Everything is now lumped together.

Wow, this must be cost-effective. And all those unnecessary out-patient visits vs fluids, Tylenol, and adequate rest.

Notes From All Over -- Wall Street Edition -- November 16, 2020

Headlines from WJS. No links.

• Moderna's vaccine 94.5% effective;
  
  
  
  
  
• US stock futures jump
• PNC to buy US arm of Spain's BBVA for $12 billion; 2nd largest bank deal since Lehman
• Walmart retreats around globe to focus on e-commerce
• US crop prices are rising, and China is buying (this was predicted for quite some time)
• China economy gathers steam; setting stage for a strong end to the year -- Covid--19? What Covid-19?
• Space X launches four astronauts into orbit
• US exporters running out of containers -- wow!
• Saudi Aramco planning US-dollar bond to plug funding gap (link here)
• Covid-19 cases surging across fly-over country -- looks like "seasonal flu" map as winter sets in
• "seasonal flu" no longer an issue
• all "flu cases" and orthopedic injuries now lumped together as Covid-19
  
• Dustin Johnson wins the Masters (link here); a month ago he tested positive for Covid-10
• number one co-morbidity for Covid-19, it seems: being an athlete, or Boris Johnson
• Tiger Woods: 10 on a par 3.

When I get back from my nap, I'll link the most recent issue of the CDC''s MMWR. 

Notes From All Over -- Pre-Market Edition -- November 16, 2020

NYC: I haven't watched CNBC in months, but when I last watched, I noted, and have said many times on the blog, the one story CNBC is not reporting is the "mass" migration out of NYC. My hunch: CNBC is still not reporting that story. But the story doesn't die. I would have thought, that by now, this story was pretty much done, but apparently not. A google search proves me wrong. The very first hit is a CNBC story: "Leaving NYC: high earners in finance and tech explain why they left the "world's greatest city." 

Wow, LOL. I've never been there but my hunch, the world's greatest city is probably Singapore, or Hong Kong. Or perhaps Tokyo, which I have visited.

[London] Daily Mail]: more than 300,000 New Yorkers have fled the Big Apple in the last eight months -- one day ago -- link here. One of the world's greatest newspapers. Many great memories of running down to the local village store on Sunday mornings, buying three newspapers, real bacon, fresh bread, and running back up to Pateley Bridge to enjoy a long Sunday morning reading. I still remember how "significant" the English pound felt in my hand. It had the feeling of really being worth something. But I digress.

Forbes, three weeks ago: is NYC's real estate market really tanking? I asked three experts for the "brutal truth." Link here. I did not read this: as soon as I saw "experts" in the headline, I lost interest. I've learned that "experts" in business magazines "talk their book," as they say.

WSJ, two weeks ago: parents pulling more children out of NYC public schools. Link here.  Families moving children to private schools, Hamptons seek less confusion and more in-person learning. For two working parents, that only makes sense.

[NYC] Globe Street, two weeks ago: New York rents fall 15.3% since March (2020). Link here.

Business Insider, three weeks ago: low rents in Manhattan and San Francisco spotlight urban exodus trend. Link here. 

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Zero Hedge

These are the Zero Hedge stories that caught my interest today. 

Too much time to link them individually, so I will link ZeroHedge and the reader can scroll through the headline stories.  

PNC buys BBVA's US arm for $12 billion; 2nd biggest banking deal since collapse of Lehman. And, yes, this is a big, big deal. WSJ link here. BBVA is Spanish owned.

Syria exit in progress? US convoys seen withdrawing from northeast Syria to Iraq. If accurate, it means Syria is now under Russian control, but I've long lost the bubble on this Mideast chess game. Or would "Twister" be a better analogy?

Germany wants to avoid "yo-yo shutdown. Wants to destroy economy once and for all. Planning for six-month "severe lockdown." Yeah, like that will work. When they all come out of their bomb shelters, the virus will still be there and the vaccine won't.

Wow, I hope Trump does declassify the whole portfolio. What is John Brennan so worried about?

Most exciting and this is just one reason the Biden presidency will be huge -- the admirals and generals will be back in charge. US Navy pushes ahead with 500-ship plan to "counter China and Russia" now that Esper has been fired. The Pentagon will run circles around the Big Man.

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Could "We" See 30,000 This Week?

Vaccine:

• 94.5% effective -- isn't that, like, 100% effective? That's historic.
• results far exceed expectations
• now, where did I put that bottle of champagne?

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

30,000: guaranteed, if:

• vaccine announced:
• $4 trillion stimulus bill in play

When reality hits, get out of the way. We might just see one of the biggest corrections ever. 

But for now, enjoy the ride to the top.

Pre-market:

• Dow up a staggering 523 points -- Dow futures at 29,933.
• NASDAQ:up 10 points
• S&P 500, already at a new record, now up another 45 points

Fully invested? And to think Warren Buffett couldn't find anything to buy last month.

Of interest:

• AAPL: down $.44 (this is the bellwether ticker today: if AAPL turns positive today, it's going to be a huge market for the bulls)
  
• SRE:
• T: up slightly; still below $30
• JNJ: up 1.3%; trading at $151.86
• DFS: up 2.5%; trading at $78,5
• UNP: up 1.5%; up $3.00; back to $206.42, just short of its all-time high;
• ENB: finally, seeing some love; up 1.5%; still under $30
• EPD: wow, completely unexpected, up2.6%; trading at $19
• BRK-B: up 1.34%; up $3; trading at $230;
• BA: up 4.4%; up over $8/share
• BK: up 2.3%; up almost a buck
• WMT; to hit an all-time high today
  

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Cable Television Is Expensive

But wow, bang for buck, I'm really, really impressed with Spectrum television. 

On every Apple device in the apartment -- desktop, laptop, iPad, iPhone -- all seamlessly work with Spectrum.

And now that I no longer go to Starbucks, the money I save there, helps cover the cost of Spectrum. Not going to restaurants pays for the rest of Spectrum.

Meanwhile, so far, I'm not impressed with Apple TV+ but that's just me.

Monday, November 16, 2020 -- Get Ready For A Wild Ride -- A Lot Happening This Monday Morning

First things first: focus on fracking posted. Link here. Note lede:

• Global oil supply in October was short by 2.5 million bopd despite rising production

Shell: to cut production at its largest refinery in the world by 50%.

Oil prices pre-market trading:

• WTI: up 2%
• OPEC basket down 1%

OPEC basket, link here: yo-yo; down again:

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Back to the Bakken

NB:

• Slawson, perhaps one of the most conservative, most successful independents, family-owned, private drillers in the Bakken has two active rigs (as reported by NDIC) -- for me, this is huge:
• MRO: at three active rigs, as reported by NDIC; again, huge development. Later: that turned out to be a head fake. One rig coming up; one rig coming down. Slawson has one rig; and MRO has two rigs, same thing (one was coming up, one was coming down -- November 17, 2020.]
  

Active rigs:

$41.50	11/16/2020	11/16/2019	11/16/2018	11/16/2017	11/16/2016
Active Rigs	16	57	63	55	38

Operators:

• MRO (3)
• CLR (2)
• WPX (2)
• BR (2)
• Hess (2), but one is drilling SWD well
• Slawson (2)
• Petro-Hunt
• Oasis
• Midwest AgEnergy Group, LLC (it sure is taking them a long time to drill one well)

And just like that, drilling stopped. One well coming off confidential list (actually two but I'm not interested in #37380, a CCS science project)

• 36005, conf, BR, Kermit 3-8-32UTFH, Pershing, Rink/Kermit wells are tracked here;

RBN Energy: physical gas flow constraints, volatility arise at Henry Hub, part 2. Archived.

With the rise of LNG feedgas demand in southern Louisiana, physical natural gas flows at Henry Hub have been climbing. As such, volumes moving through the U.S. benchmark pricing location are increasingly affected by swings in LNG feedgas deliveries, as well as in the gas supply flows into southern Louisiana that serve that demand. Those impacts have become particularly evident in recent months as nearby LNG export capacity utilization went from a trough this summer due to cargo cancellations, to being erratic during late summer and fall as hurricanes disrupted marine traffic and facility operations, and, in more recent days, to being at full bore at most facilities. In conjunction with brimming storage and pipeline maintenance in the area, this has meant more operational constraints and volatility in flows and pricing at the hub. Today, we continue our series on the changing dynamics in and around Henry Hub. 

This is Part 2 of our updated analysis on Henry Hub gas flows. As we said in Part 1, Henry, which is encompassed within Vermilion Parish, LA, has numerous distinctions that give it the benchmark status in the U.S. natural gas market: it’s been the center of the gas spot-trading universe for 30 years; it’s the delivery mechanism for the third-largest commodity futures trading instrument in the world — the CME/NYMEX Henry Hub natural gas futures contract; and, after decades of being the basis of domestic gas deals, spot and futures prices at the hub also now serve as the index for U.S. LNG export contracts.