Mark Your Calendars -- Halloween For Citgo -- September 12, 2020

This is absolutely fascinating.

Citgo.

Link here.

Venezuela's crown jewel, Citgo, is controlled by "mainstream opponents" of Venezuelan president Nicolas Maduro. These "mainstream opponents" have controlled Citgo since early 2019.

Citgo is in default of a 2020 bond.

• the 8.5 percent interest bond matures on October 27, 2020
• bondholders are owed just less than $2 billion on that date
• bondholders include Ashmore, Fidelity, T Rowe Price, and others
• the bond's collateral: 50.1% ownership of Citgo

Citgo and its "owners" appear to be in default to the tune of $914 million due a year ago, October. The foreclosure has been put on hold through legal maneuvers extending the deadline every ninety days.

Citgo and its "owners" argue the bond should be invalidated because it was never approved by the National Assembly in Caracas --

• that argument has gained no traction:
• besides being outright theft, it would set a precedent for other foreign issuers to walk away from their US obligations based on political changes at home

Then, a lot of legalese and lot of politics.

Due to the presidential election, the "suspension" preventing foreclosure is likely to be renewed for another ninety days. But by January, 2021, the issue will have lost its campaign values, making it easier for bondholders to foreclose on Citgo.

Two other players, Crystallex and COP are in the mix, but both seem in a less advantageous position than the bondholders. 

At the end of the day, this is as much a political story (and the likely end of Maduro's opposition (Juan Guaido) as a financial story. 

My hunch: a clever judge will thread the needle.

Gulf Coast Refineries

Hurricane Watch -- September 12, 2020

There is so much fake news out there, I can no longer make sense of even some of the most basic "stuff," like hurricanes. From my perspective this has been a most uneventful hurricane season to date, even including "lo-impact, no-impact Laura." But then we get, see second paragraph in note below:

 Link here.

The Atlantic’s 18th storm is coming together off Florida’s eastern coast and will drift west into the oil-rich Gulf of Mexico over the weekend where it could reach nearly hurricane strength before coming ashore.

When the storm’s winds reach 39 miles (63 kilometers) per hour it will likely be named Sally. That would mark the earliest that 18 storms have formed in the Atlantic during a hurricane season, breaking the previous record set by Stan in October 2005, said Phil Klotzbach, lead author of the Colorado State University seasonal hurricane forecast. It is possible a second system in the far eastern Atlantic will be named first.

“The system is forecast to strengthen to near hurricane intensity by early next week as it moves across the northeastern Gulf of Mexico,” Eric Blake, a hurricane forecaster, wrote in his outlook.

In addition to the depression, which has sparked a tropical storm watch in southern Florida, the hurricane center is watching three other potential storms -- one in the Gulf of Mexico and two off the coast of Africa. On top of that, Tropical Storms Paulette and Rene are churning through the central Atlantic. Paulette will likely become a hurricane and could strike Bermuda Monday.

World Series Watch -- September 12, 2020

Assuming we get that far, all 2020 World Series games will be held in Arlington, TX, midway between Dallas and Ft Worth:

Week 37: September 6, 2020 -- September 12, 2020

Best social media quip all week:

• graze it, log it, or, watch it burn

Top story of the week:

• President Trump receives two separate nominations for the Nobel Peace Prize (white privilege); first announcement here (white privilege);

Top international non-energy story:

• AstraZeneca's Covid-19 vaccine trial put on hold;
  
• Sweden defeats coronavirus;

Top international energy story:

• OPEC basket in free fall;
• Existential crisis for the House of Saud; squeezing a cash cow to stay afloat; Vision 2030 (almost) dead; reserves and import requirements; foreign exchange reserves, lower for longer;
• Pemex slashes production forecasts;

Top national non-energy story:

• Denver records earliest ever freeze;
• The fires in California, Oregon, and Washington state

Top national energy story:

• US crude oil imports from Saudi Arabia at all-tie low;
• Low gasoline prices going into Labor Day weekend;

Top North Dakota non-energy story:

Top North Dakota energy story:

Geoff Simon's top North Dakota stories:

• Corps of Engineers starts DAPL review;
• Project Tundra sets up second test well: just south of hte main plant at the Milton R. Young Station;
• Wow, that was fast -- remember that story? the railroad bridge near Beulah destroyed by fire just a week or so ago; the bridge has been replaced and traffic resumed
• thirty-acre greenhouse project to grow tomatoes planned for Spiritwood
• Baker Hughes to sell surface pressure control flow unit to Pelican Energy Partners

Operators:

• NOG announces first acquisition in the Delaware Basin, paying upwards of $30,000/acre;

Operations:

• Whiting reporting nice wells in Pembroke oil field;
• An Oasis Rolfso N well goes over 500K bbls crude oil;

Fracking:

Pipeline:

• "Hot gas" and the Northern Border pipeline; and, here;

Advantaged oil:

Commentary:

• East coast newspapers reporting North Dakota is a hot spot for the coronavirus;