Re-Posting: I Don't Want This Post To Get Lost In The Clutter -- September 11, 2020

Sometimes I feel like an idiot. Wow. A reader helped me out. And that's why I love to blog.

See this post from yesterday. From yesterday:

Hurricane Laura: landfall, August 26, 2020

• September 1, 2020: refineries still getting back on their feet; but no major stories coming out of the region;
• last week, Sunday, August 30, 2020 - Saturday, September 5, 2020

Keep those dates in mind when looking at the following:

One can argue that this was because of Hurricane Laura, but Laura had minimal impact on the oil sector compared to many, many other hurricanes since 2010 when data was first available. So, blame it on "lo-impact Laura" but that is hardly the answer ... and even if that's the answer, that's still not much revenue for Saudi Arabia.

A reader provided an explanation:

The Saudi spike of oil imports, go back to March when Saudi Arabia was negotiating oil production reductions that others (mainly Russia) that would not comply. Saudi Arabia decided to rent a fleet of VLCCs to dump ~100,000,000 barrels of crude on the open market stored in VLCCs.

Where is the safest place to park a VLCC full of crude oil without problems of pirates? Of course, the coast of USA, lowers cost of insurance. Plus Saudis own a big refinery that can process that crude. I believe that this was a simple business decision of storing a few billions of $$$s of crude oil safely, plus close to a market to eventually sell the crude rather then move the VLCC to Asia. VLCC propulsion engines use a lot of fuel 

The reader's comment and my reply was at this post.  

Wow, I feel like an idiot. The reader is exactly correct. I had forgotten all about that, and I had made a very, very big deal about that exact "thing." 

Anyway, the reader got it exactly right. I'm impressed.

But there's a cherry on top of this sundae. 

The next link will be to the must-read article for the day.

Wow, It's Friday Already -- Wow, That Was A Fast Week -- September 11, 2020

Oregon fires: threatening Portland, OR, metropolitan area. Link here. 

OPEC basket, link here. If it goes down today, I will be shocked. So let's look. Together. Yesterday the slide continued to, to $39.82. Today, the OPEC basket has stabilized: $39.83.

WTI: only four dimes from going under $37. Trending toward $20-oil, something that GS probably predicted a year ago. About the same they also forecast $100-oil. 

House of Saud: facing an existential crisis.

*******************************
Back to the Bakken

Drone program funding: this is a great story. City of Williston okays funding for drone program at TrainND. Link here. These Norwegians are smart cookies.

Active rigs:

$37.14	9/11/2020	09/11/2019	09/11/2018	09/11/2017	09/11/2016
Active Rigs	12	64	66	56	37

Wells coming off the confidential list -- 

Friday, September 11, 2020:

• 37210, drl/NC, WPX, Spotted Wolf 7-6HUL, Eagle Nest;
  
• 36952, drl/NC, WPX, Spotted Wolf 7-6HD, Eagle Nest,
  
• 36843, drl/A,  Hess, TI-State-158-95-3635H-6, Tioga, t--; cum 62K over 3.5 months;
  
• 36839, drl/NC, XTO, Muller 31X-12EXH, Alkali Creek,
  
• 36838, loc/NC,  XTO, HBU Muller 31X-12A, Hofflund,
  
• 36759, SI/A,  Whiting, Janet Adele 14-12XH, Sanish, t--; cum 75K over over four months;
  
• 36314, drl/NC, BR, State Dodge 1C TFH, Dimmick Lake, 

RBN Energy: why Gulf of Mexico crude production isn't always steady as she goes.

The offshore Gulf of Mexico is often viewed as the rock-steady player in U.S. crude oil production. Unlike price-trigger-happy shale producers that quickly ratchet their activity up or down, depending on what WTI is selling for that month or quarter, producers in the Gulf base their big, upfront investments in new platforms or subsea tiebacks on very long-term oil-price expectations. Also, unlike shale wells, whose production peaks early then trails off, wells in the GOM typically maintain high levels of production for years and years. But don’t think for a minute that production in the Gulf can’t spike down, if there’s a good reason. GOM output dropped by 300 Mb/d, or 16%, from March to April as producers shut down wells in response to sharply lower oil prices, and a couple of weeks ago more than 80% of GOM wells were taken offline in anticipation of Hurricane Laura. Today, we look at offshore oil production ups and downs in a wild and woolly year and what’s ahead for the GOM.

Fast And Furious -- Fifteen Minutes -- September 11, 2020

Theme for the day: perhaps the second wave of Covid-19 was not the big worry. The big worry: the second wave of bankruptcies.

If this doesn't scare you, nothing will scare you: Joe Biden's tax plan.

I am going to clear out my in-box. Just the headlines, links now. I will come back to the stories later if the spirit moves me. The items below are just a handful of what I could have posted. So much is happening right now, it's hard to keep up. 

• The number one international story right now is the existential crisis facing the House of Saud.
• The number one Covid-19 story right now: Sweden defeats the virus.
• The number one "business" story in the US, perhaps globally, right now, concerns EVs.
• The number two "business" story right now: anticipation of the September 15, 2020, Apple event.
• Best video today: Apple's Marina Bay Sands store in Singapore opens Thursday. Link here.

Sports:

• women's semifinals tennis last night: incredible; some of the best sports I've seen in a long, long time; well at least since last week's FedEx PGA tournament; Serena Williams played her heart out; despite what announcers said, she did not have an injury; it's an old trick; will not advance
• NFL football opener: a real -- how should I say this? -- a real dud; embarrassing;

And a moment of silence for victims of "9/11"  -- September 11, 2001.

So, let's get started: 

• BP moves into offshore wind for the first time with a new strategic partnership with Equinor. Link here. And, here, Barron's paywall. 
• ExxonMobil may need $15 billion in debt to service the dividend. Link here.
• OXY warrants hit their all-time low this week: $2.33. Link here. Dropped over 10% yesterday.
  
• EIA raises 2020 oil price forecasts for Brent and WTI. Link here. 
• one of the world's oldest LNG deals is unraveling. Link here.
• Century 21 files for bankruptcy. Never in a million years did I see this coming. Link here.
• A scary number of retail companies are facing bankruptcy. Link here.
• the mall meltdown is underway. Link here.
  
• Peloton making some very, very interesting moves right now. Link here. Something doesn't add up or Peloton is striking while the iron is hot, as they say.
• Warren Buffett makes rare move; invests in IPO; Snowflake. Link here. There's a bigger story here, a much bigger story here. This is incredible. 
• fast food drive-thrus get a new shape up in coronavirus world. Google it.
  
• FWIW: atmospheric CO2 for August, 2020, posted September 9, 2020 comes in at 412.55. Link here. A year ago? See this link.
• A solar minimum is coming. No, it's not going to mess up the world, but if it does, Rachel will blame Trump. Link here.
  

A special section on EVs:

• short seller compares Nikola to Theranos; intricate fraud built on dozens of lies. Link here.
• a long-term Tesla bull -- and still a Tesla bull -- says the Tesla stock crash targets $75. Link here.
• Tesla plans to start shipping out cars made in Shanghai gigafactory. Link here.
• Tesla rises as UBS doubles price target ahead of "Battery Day." Link here.
• making money from regulatory credits. Link here.  Previously posted.
  
• S&P passed on Tesla because it was profoundly overvalued," -- analyst. Link here. 

A special section on Wuhan flu:

• dead virus cells frequently trigger "false positives" in most common Covid test. Link here.
• most promising Covid vaccine study put on hold, due to one adverse reaction. Previously posted.
• Sweden defeats the virus. Previously posted.most egregious story: that hit-piece on the Sturgis Rally; no facts to back it up; statistics prove different story; previously posted;

Okay, that's it. My fifteen minutes are up.

Photo of the day: someone climbed this tree on Interstate 90 in northern Idaho and posted this flag complete with a solar light. 

The Only Must-Read Article All Day -- September 11, 2020

This is the only must-read article for the day. Link to Simon Watkins. Sometime ago I mentioned that this analyst is my favorite or may be my favorite. I forget exactly what I wrote. But his contribution today over at oilprice is spot on. I will re-post this later. I don't want it to get lost in the clutter. 

If you want more proof of another blunder by Saudi Arabia, see this post.

The Simon Watkins link above archived here.

Why I Love To Blog -- Reason #1 -- Reader Feedback -- September 11, 2020

Sometimes I feel like an idiot. Wow. A reader helped me out. And that's why I love to blog.

See this post from yesterday. From yesterday:

Hurricane Laura: landfall, August 26, 2020

• September 1, 2020: refineries still getting back on their feet; but no major stories coming out of the region;
• last week, Sunday, August 30, 2020 - Saturday, September 5, 2020

Keep those dates in mind when looking at the following:

One can argue that this was because of Hurricane Laura, but Laura had minimal impact on the oil sector compared to many, many other hurricanes since 2010 when data was first available. So, blame it on "lo-impact Laura" but that is hardly the answer ... and even if that's the answer, that's still not much revenue for Saudi Arabia.

A reader provided an explanation:

The Saudi spike of oil imports, go back to March when Saudi Arabia was negotiating oil production reductions that others (mainly Russia) that would not comply. Saudi Arabia decided to rent a fleet of VLCCs to dump ~100,000,000 barrels of crude on the open market stored in VLCCs.

Where is the safest place to park a VLCC full of crude oil without problems of pirates? Of course, the coast of USA, lowers cost of insurance. Plus Saudis own a big refinery that can process that crude. I believe that this was a simple business decision of storing a few billions of $$$s of crude oil safely, plus close to a market to eventually sell the crude rather then move the VLCC to Asia. VLCC propulsion engines use a lot of fuel 

The reader's comment and my reply was at this post.  

Wow, I feel like an idiot. The reader is exactly correct. I had forgotten all about that, and I had made a very, very big deal about that exact "thing." 

Anyway, the reader got it exactly right. I'm impressed.

But there's a cherry on top of this sundae. 

The next link will be to the must-read article for the day.