Nine Wells Coming Off Confidential List -- August 24, 2020

Substitute "regional economic growth" for "added NG pipelines.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

Iraq: pledges to cut more deeply. From Reuters and if you can't trust Reuters, who can you trust?

Iraq said on Friday, August 22, 2020, it would cut its oil production by another 400,000 barrels per day in both August and September to compensate for its overproduction in the past three months. 

Iraq oil minister Ihsan Abdul Jabbar said in a joint statement with his Saudi counterpart Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman that Iraq's output cut was in addition to the 850,000 bpd it had committed to cut in August and September under an OPEC+ supply pact. The total reduction to Iraq's production in August and September will amount to 1.25 million bpd for each month.

OPEC basket, link here: down again, this time drops below $45. Trading at $44.92.

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Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

$42.78	8/24/2020	08/24/2019	08/24/2018	08/24/2017	08/24/2016
Active Rigs	12	64	62	54	31

Nine wells coming off the confidential list:

Monday, August 24, 2020: 69 for the month; 140 for the quarter, 586 for the year:

• 36537, drl/NC, XTO, Marilyn 21X-23D, Sand Creek, no production data,
  
• 35998, drl/A, Hess, AN-Mogen Trust-153-94-2932H-9, Antelope-Sanish, t--; cum 108K 6/20; a 25K month;
  
• 35596, SI/NC, Enerplus, Stratus 149-94-33C-28H-TF, Eagle Nest, t--; cum 78K 5/20; a 31K month;
  

Sunday, August 23, 2020: 66 for the month; 137 for the quarter, 583 for the year:

• 36686, SI/A,  Whiting, Iverson 41-14-2HU, Sanish, t-- cum 90K 6/20; a 25K month;
  
• 36538, drl/NC, XTO, Marilyn 21X-23H, Capa, no production data,
  
• 35997, drl/A, Hess, AN-Mogen Trust-LE-153-94-2932H-1, Antelope-Sanish, t--; cum 104K 620; a 29K month,
  
• 33799, SI/IA, CLR, Bohmbach Federal 13-26H1, Elm Tree, t--; cum 33K 4/20; off line 5/20; remains off line 6/20; an 18K month;
• 33798, SI/IA, CLR, Bohmbach Federal 12-26H, Elm Tree, t--; cum 51K 4/20; off line 5/20; remains off line 6/20; a 30K month;
  

Saturday, August 22, 2020: 61 for the month; 132 for the quarter, 578 for the year:

• 36539, drl/NC, XTO, Marilyn 21X-23C, Capa, no production data,
  

RBN Energy: Enbridge's Line 5 faces new scrutiny. Archived.

The Dakota Access Pipeline isn’t the only interstate liquids pipe facing an uncertain future. The fate of Enbridge’s Line 5, which batches either light crude oil or a propane/butanes mix from Superior, WI, through Michigan and into Ontario, also hangs in the balance as the company renews its battle with Michigan’s top elected officials to keep the 67-year-old pipeline open and its effort win regulatory approval to replace the pipe’s most important water crossing. 

Line 5 supporters say that closing the 540-Mb/d pipeline would slash supplies to residential and commercial propane consumers in the Great Lakes State, steam crackers in Ontario, and refineries and gasoline blenders in three states and two Canadian provinces. Critics of Line 5 counter that there are plenty of supply alternatives. Today we discuss the pipeline, what it transports, and who it serves, as well as challenges it faces.

Notes From All Over -- The Early Morning Edition -- Part 6 -- August 24, 2020

Paper towel shortage: this is truly bizarre. This reminds me of the "egg shortage" story some months ago, also in The WSJ. Do these business journalists ever get out and actually go shopping? You will note in the article below the first reference is to "on-line" Target, not a physical store. There's no paper towel shortage here in north Texas. From The WSJ: 

Why Are There Still Not Enough Paper Towels? Blame lean manufacturing. 

A decades-long effort to eke out more profit by keeping inventory low left many manufacturers unprepared when Covid-19 struck. 

And production is unlikely to ramp up significantly any time soon. 

The United States of America, heralded as the land of plenty, still doesn’t have enough paper towels. Long after the coronavirus sparked a run on them, retailers can’t keep their shelves full. 

Target.com had no Bounty paper towels for delivery this week, though it had some at certain stores. 

At Amazon.com, a seller was charging $44.95 for a pack that normally goes for $15. An average of 21% of household paper products were out of stock at U.S. stores as of Aug. 9, according to research firm IRI. The situation isn’t likely to abate soon, because producers have no plans to build new manufacturing capacity. The central piece of the machinery needed to make paper towels takes years to assemble. 

Americans have faced many stresses in the pandemic, of which paper-towel scarcity is hardly among the worst. Yet the forces behind the shortage nearly six months into the crisis help explain the broad lack of U.S. preparedness that has made the pandemic worse than it might have been.

Paper towel shortage? Sounds like a first-world problem to me. 

By the way, I just checked Target.com: plenty of Bounty towels. I thought the story sounded bogus. And that "At Amazon.com, a seller was charging $44.95 for a pack that normally goes for $15" -- the writer is not looking at the number of rolls in the pack. Amazon is selling a pack of 12 "huge" rolls (= to 26 rolls) for less than $50 -- or about $4/roll -- that's about what Bounty has always sold for, and, oh by the way, store-brand paper towels are available and a lot less expensive. And, oh by the way, how much does this have to do with the price of lumber. Oh, give me a break. 

Egg shortage? Now it's paper towels. Next week, Bush's beans.

Notes From All Over -- The Early Morning Edition -- Part 5 -- August 24, 2020

CNBC guest: still talking about growth stocks and value stocks. I agree with a guest on CNBC last week. There are only "growth" companies -- companies are either growing or they aren't. Period. Dot. Well said.

"Story stocks": how Andrew Sorkin refers to AAPL and TSLA.

Sorkin: still can't get over AAPL's stock split. Amazing. Doesn't understand human nature.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

Home sales surging. Why? Link to USA Today: the question is never answered in this article except perhaps in a superficial way with several memes. Clickbait.

Home sales soared in July, continuing a stunning rebound buoyed in part by buyers seeking a more comfortable home in the midst of the coronavirus pandemic. 

Home sales jumped 24.7% from the month before. 

That surge broke the record for a month-to-month sales spike set in June when completed home purchases rose 20.7%. July sales rose 8.7% over the same month last year. 

“Right now housing, amazingly, in the midst of a global pandemic (and) high unemployment ... is in a booming phase,'' Lawrence Yun, NAR's chief economist, said in a briefing Friday.  [Has he looked at lending rates?]

But a significant segment of the country is being left out of the home buying rush because they can't afford to participate. 

"Unfortunately, home prices have also soared in the last year, a consequence of high demand, relatively low supply and low interest rates,'' Robert Frick, corporate economist for the Navy Federal Credit Union, said in a statement. 

"This puts homeownership further out of reach for lower-income Americans and even middle-income Americans in some markets. That lower-income Americans have been hurt more by the pandemic just makes that situation worse." [Is this anything new, where a crisis hurts the low income more than the wealthy?]

The number of homes available to buy was down. The 1.5 million houses, condos, and townhomes available for purchase in July was 21% lower than the housing inventory on the market one year earlier. That helped elevate prices. 

The national median price for a home topped $300,000 for the first time, reaching $304,100 -- an 8.5% jump over July 2019. Despite the higher price tags, many sellers are fielding multiple offers from buyers eager to take advantage of historically low interest rates that can shave hundreds of dollars off their mortgage payments.

So, again, did I miss it? Why are home sales surging? And to think folks read this drivel while waiting for their flight. Well, not so much any more.

AAPL price target: raised by Morgan Stanley to $520. Joe Kernan gets it. Wow, wow, wow, he finally mentions a "reverse split."

Lego on a tear. And not just in my household. LOL. From The WSJ. This is a non-story but it's my hunch the editors were aware of LEGO's growth and wanted a story on LEGO and here it is.

Seeking ideas for TV shows, digital videos and toy sets, Lego A/S is asking people to share their imaginings on a new platform set up for that purpose. 

Called Lego World Builder, the platform lets users propose story worlds, characters and other ideas by uploading concept art, videos and descriptions. Lego said it will buy the ideas it likes. 

Entertainment has long been important to the $21 billion toy industry, which also sells playthings based on popular Hollywood franchises as well as making TV series and movies about its own wares. 

Licensed “Star Wars” toy sets helped Lego rebound from near-bankruptcy in the early 2000s, while the success of “The Lego Movie” in 2014 helped usher in new products and an increase in revenue. 

But content—stories featuring toys—has become central as toy makers vie for children’ attention against videogames, YouTube and social media. “It’s a different world with so many choices for children,” said Chris Byrne, an independent toy-industry consultant and analyst. 

Lego’s most ardent fans will stay engaged on Lego World Builder, as the company mines them for ideas to reach consumers across a fragmented media landscape, he added. 

Lego has budgeted $500,000 a year for at least the next three to pay the platform’s users when it likes their submissions, said Keith Malone, the company’s senior director of entertainment development. To option an idea—meaning Lego will try to develop it—the company will pay $10,000, he said. If it decides to buy the idea outright, it will pay $50,000. Those pitching ideas must be at least 18 years old.

From my perspective, LEGO is the most transformative of all non-electronic toy companies. It is simply incredible. And the interest is shifting to millennials and baby boomers, alike.

Notes From All Over -- The Early Morning Edition -- Part 4 -- August 24, 2020

Apple, again: from The Motley Fool, August 22, 2020 -- Apple has gobbled up half of the Smartwatch market this year. Remember when everyone laughed at Apple's Apple Watch. LOL. This is truly amazing -- so many story lines.

Apple has been dominating the wearables market in recent years, thanks in large part to the popularity of Apple Watch. 

Strong demand for AirPods also helps, as the company is likewise the leader in hearables. The smartwatch market has been able to grow so far this year despite the economic havoc that the COVID-19 pandemic has wreaked across the world. 

The Mac maker has expanded its market share over the past year and represented over half of all smartwatch revenue in the first two quarters of 2020. 

Counterpoint Research estimates that Apple's share of smartwatch revenue in the first half of 2020 was 51.4%, up from 43.2% in the first half of 2019. 

The No. 2 vendor was Garmin with 9.4% share during that time frame, followed by China's Huawei at 8.3%. Overall unit volumes were roughly flat at around 42 million as consumers tried to continue exercising during the coronavirus crisis, but the 20% growth in total smartwatch revenue points to an increase in average selling prices (ASPs). 

"The smartwatch space remains a popular consumer device segment, compared to the downturn seen in smartphone demand and many other segments in the first six months of 2020 due to the devastation caused by COVID-19," Counterpoint senior analyst Sujeong Lim said. 

"Close to 42 million smartwatches were shipped in the first half of 2020 as wearables continue to see greater demand with consumers becoming more health conscious." The Apple Watch Series 5 has the most popular smartwatch model thus far in 2020, followed by the older Apple Watch Series 3 that the Cupertino tech giant continues to sell at a lower $199 price point. Huawei's Watch GT2 was the third best-selling gadget, with Samsung's Galaxy Watch Active 2 ranking No. 4 in popularity.

Biggest fumble: colleges canceling fall football. Huge, huge fumble. How bad will it be. The repercussions will be felt for years. My hunch: "peripheral sports" dead; women's sports will take a bigger hit. From https://www.foxbusiness.com/sports/iowa-hawkeyes-announce-cuts-to-sports-programs-over-financial-fallout-a-loss-of-this-magnitude-will-take-years-to-overcome: Iowa Hawkeyes announce cuts to sports programs over financial fallout: "A loss of this magnitude will take years to overcome." More than 200 sports programs have been cut across the NCAA's three divisions and NAIA.

The University of Iowa announced Friday that it would be cutting several sports programs following the 2020-2021 season as a result of the financial burden caused by the pandemic. 

School president Bruce Harreld and athletic director Gary Barta confirmed that the school would be discontinuing men's gymnastics, men's tennis and men's and women's swimming and diving in response to the projected $100 million in revenue losses. 

“A loss of this magnitude will take years to overcome. We have a plan to recover, but the journey will be challenging,” Harreld and Barta said. 

Barta pointed to Big Ten’s decision to postpone Hawkeyes football and other fall sports to the spring. The move creates an estimated budget deficit of somewhere between $60 million and $75 million this year. 

Athletic departments across the country are facing financial hardships because of the cancellation of the NCAA men's basketball tournament and shortened or canceled football seasons. More than 200 sports programs have been cut across the NCAA's three divisions and NAIA since the pandemic began in March. 

Just last month Stanford announced that it would be doing away with 11 sports programs. Iowa announced initial budget cuts in July, including a $15 million reduction for athletics through pay cuts and furloughs but it wasn’t enough to save the program.

Notes From All Over -- The Early Morning Edition -- Part 3 -- August 24, 2020

Permian drillers bounce back! Link here.  Just the other day a reader wrote to remind me of the "bucket-full" of oil-shale-related bankruptcies. In fact, by my reckoning, I am aware of only a handful. And, need one point out, the oil industry is one known for bust and boom (mostly bust, I might add). I'm not quite sure this "bust" is any different than any previous "bust" -- except it appears to be a lot shorter. 

See "WTI meltdown: the Bakken or the Permian" at the link at the sidebar at the right.

Disclaimer: I am inappropriately bullish about the Bakken and Big Oil, and always have been. This does not mean I would recommend anyone invest in the Bakken or Big Oil. Being bullish on the operations and the business of the Bakken and Big Oil is completely different than investing in these areas.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

Wow, the stories keep coming in: Covid-19 pounds NYC. Here's another one -- The WSJ, August 20, 2020: Covid-19 pounds NYC real estate -- worse than 9/11 or the financial crash. 

The Covid-19 crisis has delivered a stunning gut-punch to the New York City luxury real-estate market, applying downward pressure at a rate that surpasses both the 2008 financial crisis and the period immediately following the 9/11 terrorist attacks.

In the West Chelsea district, a recently built ultra high-end boutique condominium known as the Getty slashed prices for its remaining units by as much as 46%. One full-floor, four-bedroom apartment at the Peter Marino-designed building was lowered to $10.475 million from $19.5 million.

“Truth be told, you need to do something drastic and dramatic to attract attention,” said Ran Korolik, a partner at Victor Group, a developer of the project. “I didn’t want to reduce prices by 15% or 20% and then have someone come along and try to negotiate another 15% or 20%.”

The crisis comes at a time when sales and prices in the luxury market were already under pressure. “It’s not like New York City is all of a sudden on sale. New York has been on sale for the past 24 months,” said Tal Alexander, a luxury agent with Douglas Elliman. “Sellers who are motivated and want to do deals need to add on another layer of discount.”

The numbers are unprecedented. Between March 23 and August 16, sales of Manhattan homes were off 56% year-over-year, according to UrbanDigs, a real-estate data site. For properties priced at $4 million or above, sales were down about 67%.

New listings were down by 21%, while new listings priced at $4 million and above were down by almost 35%. For luxury homes sold in the second quarter, prices were also down by about 11%, according to a report by Douglas Elliman.

Much more at the link, of course, as there always is.