Monday, August 10, 2020

Notes From All Over -- The Late Evening Edition -- Nothing About The Bakken -- August 10, 2020

This was originally posted August 6, 2020, but then put in draft. I am re-posting it even though I have since departed Flathead Lake.

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Walmart And Movies

This is really, really what makes America great! Walmart offering free movies in their parking lots. Link here.

In an announcement that will certainly come as welcome news for the homeless and unemployed already living in their cars in Walmart parking lots, the retailer said yesterday that effective August 14, it is going to be kicking off the "Walmart Drive-in movie theater experience". 
The retailer's "first ever drive-in" movie theater will debut at 160 different Walmart stores across the country starting this month in a partnership with the Tribeca Film Festival. Because showing Disney movies to overweight Walmart customers eating McDonald's in their Dodge pickup trucks is basically synonymous with the elite crowds that attend the Tribeca Film Festival.
This could only happen in America. I love it. You know where you can find me on my cross-country trip back to Grapevine, TX.

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Overlooking Flathead Lake

One of the sisters wanted to drive over to Big Fork and look for deer.

Deciding whether we wanted to go or not, channeling Yogi Berra:
"If we go now, it's too early but if we go later it will be too late."
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An Oyster Story

Years ago, when we were living on the East Coast, my wife and I went out to seafood restaurants as often as possible. We figured we had pretty much seen it all.

One night with my plate of oysters came red live worms. They were about a quarter-inch / half-inch long and very, very thin, but definitely crawling and definitely worms. They didn't seem to be hurting anything, so I ate the oysters, pushed the plate aside and enjoyed the entree -- probably a shark steak -- and never mentioned the little red worms to the waiter. It was an upscale restaurant, and I didn't want to create a "thing."

Some months later I crossed paths with a young man who had worked in a seafood restaurant while going to college. I asked him about the little red worms. He knew all about them. They are found in oysters, but when restaurants shuck oysters they make sure the little red worms don't make it out to the customers. Only that time they didn't.

Tonight we were talking about ceviche and I was reminded of the little red worms.

Worms that are found on oysters are called mud worms. They are red in color and form symbiotic relationships with oysters, according to the release issued by the program.

In other words, these worms are naturally occurring on oysters, and are unsightly but harmless.

Oysters along the Gulf of Mexico are mostly harvested from both public and private oyster reefs.

According to the report, oysters that grow in their own shells build a habitat that attract what is called, "estuarine organism."

The bigger question, are they safe to eat? 
Supan says yes. "They are absolutely harmless and naturally occurring," he added. "If a consumer is offended by it while eating raw oysters, just wipe it off and ask your waiter/waitress for another napkin." 
Supan also said that if there are children at the table, to ask a waiter for a clear glass of water to drop the worms in. 
"They are beautiful swimmers and can be quite entertaining," Supan said.

Could Be Rough Day Tomorrow For OXY -- August 10, 2020

 OXY posts $6.6 billion charge after price crash, Bloomberg.

OXY shares up about a dollar today during normal trading hours, then dropped a dollar after hours. From the linked article:

Occidental Petroleum Corp. reported a $6.6 billion writedown in the second quarter, equivalent to more than 40% of its market value, as the collapse in energy prices took its toll on the debt-laden U.S. shale oil producer.

More than two-thirds of the impairment was to account for the lower value of its domestic onshore acreage, with the remainder in the Gulf of Mexico and overseas, the Houston-based company said Monday in a statement. The shares plunged as much 6.8% in after-market trading in New York.

Occidental is not alone is taking large impairments after the Covid-19 pandemic crushed demand for petroleum around the world, but its writedown is one of the biggest relative to its size. Though the charges don’t affect near-term cash flows, they increase certain leverage ratios, potentially pushing up borrowing costs for the oil producer.

Earnings report:

Excluding the writedowns, Occidental made an adjusted loss of $1.76 a share, worse than the average $1.68 estimated by analysts in a Bloomberg survey. 
Production came in at the high-end of Occidental’s guidance, at the equivalent of 1.41 million barrels of oil a day, boosted by output from the Permian Basin of Texas and New Mexico.

Earnings report from Zacks:

Occidental Petroleum came out with a quarterly loss of $1.76 per share versus the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a loss of $1.66. This compares to earnings of $0.97 per share a year ago. 
These figures are adjusted for non-recurring items. This quarterly report represents an earnings surprise of -6.02%. 
A quarter ago, it was expected that this oil and gas exploration and production company would post a loss of $0.50 per share when it actually produced a loss of $0.52, delivering a surprise of -4%. 
Over the last four quarters, the company has not been able to surpass consensus EPS estimates. Occidental posted revenues of $2.98 billion for the quarter ended June 2020, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 23.57%. This compares to year-ago revenues of $4.48 billion. The company has topped consensus revenue estimates three times over the last four quarters.

MRO With One New Permit -- August 10, 2020

 Active rigs:

$41.96
8/10/202008/10/201908/10/201808/10/201708/10/2016
Active Rigs1261615733

One new permit: #37728 --

  • Operator: MRO
  • Field: Van Hook (Mountrail)
  • Comments:
    • MRO has a permit for a Spencer USA well in NWNW 17-150-97, Van Hook oil field, 300' FNL and 1299' FWL

Two permits renewed:

  • XTO: two Michael State Federal permits, Williams County

Huge Stories This Week / Next Week -- August 10, 2020

Huge stories pending this week:

  • Uber, Lyft: California could shut them down within ten days;
  • Politics: Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden to pick his running mate by August 10, 2020 (that's today). Later: announcement said to be imminent -- August 10, 2020; perhaps as early as August 11or August 12; DNC convention: August 17 - August 20, 2020
  • College football: Power 5 to decide whether the five college conferences will play football this season
    • my hunch: yes
    • consensus on talk radio: no


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Nikola

Nikola: this was the big story today on the market, based on the price movement and all the stories ... about one story, the deal with Republic for EV trash trucks --- Nikola announces orders for 2,500 garbage trucks -- so I need to put this in context ...

  • NKLA: up 22% today -- after news of the order for garbage trucks; trading for $45; up $8/share
  • market cap: $16.982 billion
I'm hoping my readers can tell me what a company can expect to "make" on a single truck sale; I'll take a wag --

Assume the company make $100,000 on each garbage truck

  • 2,500 trucks x $100,000 = $250 million
  • $250 million / 16,982,000,000 = 1.5%
  • if the company delivers all these 2500 garbage trucks, with a profit margin of 20% or $100,000 on a $500,000 truck, that will equal less than 2% of the company's total market cap

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 

$1 - $2 billion contract; obligated to buy 2,500; option to buy a max of 5,000; "partnered" with Republic;

  • 2500 at $1 billion = $400,000
  • 5000 at $2 billion = $400,000

Goal: under $500,000/trash truck -- according to Trevor Milton, CEO of Nikola on "Fast Money," August 10, 2020; how this differs from other trash truck companies -- one company, Nikola, will make all three components -- chassis, powertrain, compactor -- instead of "cobbling" together the three components from three different suppliers.

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Nonsense

With all that is going on in the investing world, what is "Fast Money" going to focus on this week? All week, each day, "Fast Money" will have a special segment on cannabis. And with that, television is turned off. 

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Before I Go

Apparently the transportation sector was up "huge" today.

I mentioned UNP earlier today -- saw ti this morning. How did it finish? Closed up 2%; up almost $4; closed at $186.85.

On another note, SRE: up 2.83% during normal trading hours; up $3.67; closed at $133.57.

Initial Production For Wells Coming Off The Confidential List This Next Week -- August 10, 2020

 The wells:

  • 37075, conf, BR, Cleofill 1C, Croff, no productiondata,
  • 36351, conf,  Hess, EN-Thompson Trust-154-94-1930H-6, Alkali Creek,
    DateOil RunsMCF Sold
    6-20201855832621
    5-20202373644774
    4-20201920333219
    3-20201056410410
    2-202038453388
  • 36158, conf,  Hess, GO-Hauge-156-97-2116H-2, Dollar Joe,
    DateOil RunsMCF Sold
    6-20201590
    5-20201064223029
    4-20201361827216
    3-20202227339637
    2-20201533221456
  • 36109, conf, BR, Gladstone Gap 44-23TFH-ULW, Sand Creek, no production data,
  • 37074, conf, BR, Cleofill 1B, Croff, no production data,
  • 37073, conf, BR, Cleofill 1A, Croff, no production data,
  • 36110, conf, BR, Gladstone Gap 34-23MBH-ULW, Sand Creek, no production data,
  • 33929, conf, CLR, Hendrickson Federal 13-25H2, Elm Creek,
    DateOil RunsMCF Sold
    4-202066987351
    3-20201339419155
    2-202022210
  • 36980, conf,  CLR, LCU Truman 8-23H1, Long Creek, no production data,
  • 36111, conf, BR, Outlaw Gap 44-23TFH, SandCreek, no production data,
  • 35895, conf,  Whitign, Rasuer 22-29H, Pembroke,
    DateOil RunsMCF Sold
    6-20201153027238
    5-20202506746566
    4-20202608039050
    3-20203196761477
    2-20201382017183
  • 35722, conf,  Oasis, A. Johnson 5298 42-33 7B, Banks,
    DateOil RunsMCF Sold
    6-20201582230617
    5-2020223373
    4-20201510329260
    3-20201123023060
    2-202037197151
  • 35597, conf,  Enerplus, Cumulus 149-94-33C-28H, Eagle Nest,
    DateOil RunsMCF Sold
    6-20202171027239
    5-20202663529317
    4-20202023321233
    3-20203356332087
    2-20203092228167
  • 26970, conf, XTO, FBIR Lawrence 24X-26E, Heart Butte, no production data,
  • 36981, conf,  CLR, LCU Truman 7-23H, Long Creek, no production data,
  • 36744, conf, XTO, FBIR Lawrence 24X-26A, Heart Butte, no production data, 
  • 36421, conf,  Zavanna, Panther 16-21 2TFH, Stony Creek,
    DateOil RunsMCF Sold
    6-20201522923916
    5-20201453112470
    4-20202389422397
    3-20203633248629
    2-202051315382
  • 36350, conf,  Hess, EN-Thompson Trust-154-94-1930H-5, Alkali Creek,
    DateOil RunsMCF Sold
    6-20202159245084
    5-20202055040897
    4-20202208340346
    3-20203074757310
    2-20202166432644
  • 36159, conf,  Hess, GO-Hauge-156-97-2116H-3, Dollar Joe,
    DateOil RunsMCF Sold
    6-202022245935
    5-20201252125903
    4-20201929139100
    3-20202806852356
    2-20202172225833
  • 35721, conf,  Oasis, A. Johnson 5298 11-1 4B, Banks,
    DateOil RunsMCF Sold
    6-20202816555775
    5-20202515559816
    4-20202995263054
    3-20202927662411
    2-2020876221397
  • 35600, conf, Enerplus, Alto 149-94-33C-28H-TF, Eagle Nest,
    DateOil RunsMCF Sold
    6-20201908123941
    5-20202827331120
    4-20202605327340
    3-20202814926911
    2-20202250720502
  • 35599, conf,  Enerplus, Haze 149-94-33C-28H-TF, Eagle Nest,
    DateOil RunsMCF Sold
    6-20202792135033
    5-20202302725345
    4-20202496326196
    3-20203443532921
    2-20202994627278
  • 35598, conf, Enerplus, Vapor 149-94-33C-28H-TF, Eagle Nest,
    DateOil RunsMCF Sold
    6-2020876410997
    5-20201335614701
    4-20202065421674
    3-20203273331293
    2-20201757616011
  • 36727, conf, CLR, Marshall 8-24H, Little Knife,
    DateOil RunsMCF Sold
    5-2020140492388
    4-2020168516103
    3-2020192719431
    2-20204590
  • 35859, conf,  Newfield, Kummer 149-98-2A-11-3H, Pembroke, no production data,
  • 35894, conf,  Whiting, Rauser 11-29-2H, Pembroke,
    DateOil RunsMCF Sold
    6-20201352635221
    5-20202286044337
    4-20202388035421
    3-20202272138546
    2-20202437429774
  • 33930, conf, CLR, Holstein Federal 14-24H2, Elm Tree,
    DateOil RunsMCF Sold
    4-20201229615053
    3-20201722323229
    2-20206520
  • 36982, drl/TAI, CLR, LCU Truman 6-23H1, Long Creek, no production;
  • 36746, drl/NC, XTO, FBIR Lawrence 24X-26F, Heart Butte, t--; no production,
  • 36745, drl/NC, XTO, FBIR Lawrence 24-26EXH, Heart Butte, t-- ; no production,
  • 35719, SI/A, Oasis, A. Johnson 5298 11-1 3TX, Banks, t--; cum 89K 4 months; a 25K month;
    PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
    BAKKEN6-2020302191721821228415317052622228
    BAKKEN5-20205401401611109110326
    BAKKEN4-2020302060820639225425012149451350
    BAKKEN3-20203124690250242851366033643441358
    BAKKEN2-20202720919205482001447699456331852
  • 35858, drl/A, Newfield, Kummer 149-83-3-10-10HLW, Pembroke, no production; 
  • 36747, drl/NC, XTO, FBIR Lawrence 24X-26C,  Heart Butte, no production data,
  • 36728, drl/A, CLR, Marshall 7-24H1, Little Knife, t--; cum 26K 2 months; Little Knife,
    PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
    BAKKEN6-20200000000
    BAKKEN5-202011200673102960
    BAKKEN4-202028966993203657669576301497
    BAKKEN3-2020221515914994513481142186122809
    BAKKEN2-202061026102654684180418
  • 36420, SI/A, Zavanna, Panther 16-21 3TFH, Stony Creek, t--; cum 84K 4 months; a 35K month; no production data,
  • 35857, drl/NC, Newfield, Kummer 149-98-3-10-2HLW, Pembroke,
  • 36983, drl/TAI, CLR, LCU Truman Federal 5-23H1, Long Creek,