Thursday, February 20, 2020

Closer Look At Two EOG Liberty LR Wells Recently Released From Confidential List -- February 20, 2020

The two EOG Parshall wells released from confidential status today:
  • 34361, 1,733, EOG, Liberty LR 49-1109H, 33-061-04160; 4 sections, Parshall, t8/19; cum 128K 12/19;
  • 33511, 1,769, EOG, Liberty LR 50-1109H, 33-061-04043, ICO, Parshall, t8/19; cum 174K 12/19; 
Production:
  • 34361, 70 stages, 22 million lbs; middle Bakken; spacing unit, 3840 acres; extended long lateral, drilling west to east; TD, 24,740 feet; FracFocus: fracked, 6/9/19 - 7/23/19; 14.4 million gallons of water; 84.4% water by mass;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN12-20193127987279455472014388136710
BAKKEN11-20192928098280885313413449125148
BAKKEN10-20193128487284986270711981109088
BAKKEN9-20192624981245437681211926110580
BAKKEN8-20191218500182674565914100137090
  • 33511, 70 stages; 21.8 million lbs; middle Bakken; spacing unit, 1920 acres; extended long lateral, drilling west to east; TD, 24,676 feet; FracFocus: fracked, 6/10/19 - 7/24/19; 13.7 million gallons of water; 84% water by mass;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN12-201931267282674745887398132380
BAKKEN11-20193032709326955310111566105086
BAKKEN10-201930392913926463088207791974815
BAKKEN9-20193054189538167727839913387680
BAKKEN8-20191221391211294593615302148960


Neighboring wells in same section:
  • 20038, recently back on line; small jump in production; t6/11; cum 263K 12/19; slight, probably insignificant, jump in production after coming back on line;
  • 20037, recently back on line; small jump in production; t6/11; cum 348K 12/19;
  • 18101, IA,  (one of five wells on same pad as #34361 and #33511), t12/09; cum 213K 1/19;
Activity in the immediate area, in the section to the south (pay attention to the chronologic number):
  • 19802, 1,215, EOG, Liberty LR 18-14H, Parshall, middle Bakken; producing well holding lease by production; remains on line; t10/11; cum 378K 12/19;
  • 5-well pad with rig on site:
  • 37252, loc, EOG, Liberty LR 117-1416H, Parshall, Three Forks B1,
  • 37253, loc, EOG, Liberty LR 54-1416H, Parshall, middle Bakken
  • 37254, ROS/loc, EOG, Liberty LR 55-1416H, Parshall, middle Bakken
  • 37255, loc, EOG, Liberty LR 116-1416H, Parshall, Three Forks B1,
  • 37256, loc, EOG, Liberty LR 52-1416H, Parshall, middle Bakken

Bullish Crude Oil Inventory Report -- February 20, 2020

EIA weekly petroleum report, link here:
  • a very, very bullish report;
  • crude oil inventories increased by 400,000 bbls from the previous week
  • current crude oil inventories: 442.9 million bbls
  • current crude oil inventories remain about 2% below the five-year average for this time of the year
  • refiner operating at 89.4% of operable capacity; still very low, but greater than previous week;
  • imports average 6.5 million bopd, down slightly
  • imports down 4%, comparing current four-week period with same four-week period one year ago
  • jet fuel product supplies was down 0.45 compared with same four-week period last year (coronavirus impact? zilch)
WTI: after the report -- $53.85, up about 0.67%.

Re-balancing:
Week
Week Ending
Change
Million Bbls Storage
Week 0
November 21, 2018
4.9
446.9
Week 1
November 28, 2018
3.6
450.5
Week 2
December 6, 2018
-7.3
443.2
Week 3
December 12, 2018
-1.2
442.0
Week 4
December 19, 2018
-0.5
441.5
Week 5
December 28, 2018
0.0
441.4
Week 6
January 4, 2019
0.0
441.4
Week 7
January 9, 2019
-1.7
439.7
Week 8
January 16, 2019
-2.7
437.1
Week 9
January 24, 2019
8.0
445.0
Week 58
January 3, 2020
-11.5
429.9
Week 59
January 8, 2020
1.2
431.1
Week 60
January 15, 2020
-2.5
428.5
Week 61
January 23, 2020
-0.4
428.1
Week 62
January 29, 2020
3.5
431.7
Week 63
February 5, 2020
3.4
435.0
Week 64
February 12, 2020
7.5
442.5
Week 65
February 20, 2020
0.4
442.9

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Note to Readers/Granddaughters

Wow, I'm in a great mood.

May and I share Uber-granddaughter responsibilities -- and it's a lot of driving for three granddaughters: three different schools; and, all their after-school activities which keep us busy until 10:00 p.m., Monday - Thursday. With the two of us driving, we can easily juggle the schedules.

May is in Portland, OR, for the next few weeks visiting our younger daughter and our son-in-law there. So, I'm the only driver for the granddaughters here. Their dad is often out-of-town and when he is in town does not get home early enough to help with driving; same with their mother who routinely gets home at 7:30 p.m.

The good news: I get to see the granddaughters every day and hear all those stories.

On top of that, May would prepare most evening meals. There was no expectation that I would do that, but I want to do that, and it will be a hoot.

The five all have different tastes, including vegan, near-vegan, adult-tastes; kindergarten tastes, parents' idiosyncratic rules about what can be served and what cannot be served (LOL). It's interesting to solve that Rubic's cube.

The first thing to do was figure out a routine. It's my experience that the biggest challenge with meal preparation these days is what to prepare. So, this is my plan:
  • Monday: salmon (I can prepare, marinade, on Sunday); prepare in 20 minutes on Monday;
  • Tuesday: pasta (I can prepare on Sunday); many pasta dinners can be tailored easily to different tastes;
  • Wednesday: salad day; see pictures below;
  • Thursday: stir-fry; like pasta, easy to tailor stir-fry to different tastes.
Those are the entrees; side dishes will vary, but that's easy: rice, potatoes, vegetables, fruit, dessert, etc. 

I won't prepare meals for Friday, Saturday and Sunday because the parents are home those days, and/or without school the next day, the older granddaughters have more time to prepare / cook / bake which they prefer to do anyway.

I will prepare my own meats (generally lamb) on Saturday to marinade overnight, and then grill on Sunday.

Since the older two granddaughters like to prepare their own meals and know how cook/bake, I will not "complete the final stage" of meal preparation. I will place all ingredients on the kitchen island and/or in the refrigerator with a checklist of "ingredients."

No instructions on how to prepare. That will be obvious / intuitive.

After each dinner I will ask for feedback how they want the dinner modified the following week.

So, for example, last night was "dinner salad."  Here is what their island looked like:



Notes From All Over, Part 2 -- February 20, 2020

AOC has company: Bolingbrook, IL, mayor rejects Amazon's offer to build a "massive" distribution center in Bolingbrook:
  • would add 1,500 jobs
  • $15/hour
  • mayor says $15/hour is not a living wage
    • too much traffic; would choke a nearby intersection on Interstate 55
    • building would be too tall and unsightly
  • comment: wow: the distribution centers around DFW are huge (and not unsightly; and no traffic jams)
    • an Amazon distribution center would attract more such centers by other companies
    • would result in more mom-and-pop retail in the local area
  • clearly, there is a difference in the way Texans think and some other parts of the US
  • So, Bolingbrook, IL:
    • a southwest suburb of Chicago
    • population: 75,000 -- the state's second largest village
    • number of corporate headquarters there suggest something like Plano or Frisco here in Texas, a "suburb" north of Dallas;
  • per capita income
    • Bolingbrook, IL: $23,468 (median: $67,852)
    • Plano, TX: the highest median income of a city with a population exceeding 250,000 in the nation; $84,492 
    • Frisco, TX:  $38,048 (median: $109,086
  • home value:
    • Bolingbrook, IL: $153,410 (2000)
    • Frisco, TX: $500,000 (median); 2nd fastest growing city in the US at 6.5% annually;
********************************
Strategic Planning

This is really, really cool.

I learned a lot about strategic planning while in the USAF.

Example: put down your "goal" / "outcome" that you desire at some time in the future, five years from now, ten years from now, thirty years from now. Then figure out how you get there starting from the current status.

Hold that thought.

Now, a thought experiment. Let's say your political party wants to broaden its voter base. Maybe "illegal" immigrants could be part of your voter base.

Strategic planning, first step: take out a huge flip-chart easel. Second step: a black Sharpie.

At the top, print: illegal immigrants can't vote.

At the bottom of the 24-inch by 36-inch flip chart: illegal immigrants allowed to vote/same day registration.

Now, draw about six rectangles on the flip chart between the top entry and the goal/outcome at the bottom.

At the bottom, the last rectangle that is not filled in, write: allow state driver's licenses to satisfy requirement for voter id/registration.

In the penultimate rectangle: introduce/pass legislation to allow state driver's licenses to satisfy requirement for voter id/registration.

In the next unfilled rectangle nearer the top: illegal immigrants allowed state driver's licenses.

Etc., etc., etc.

I was asked why states would want to give illegal immigrants the right to state driver's licenses. My reply: follow the money or google it. In this case, neither worked.

Fortunately Rush Limbaugh explained it. 

Post-Debate; Nevada -- Let's Not Over-Think This -- February 20, 2020

EIA weekly petroleum report: I assume the weekly EIA petroleum report will be delayed / released tomorrow, Friday, February 21, 2020, due to the holiday earlier this week. If I'm wrong, I'm sure some reader will let me know. Thank you in advance. [I was wrong; report has been released. Report summary here. The report was delayed a day; I forgot that the report normally comes out on Wednesdays. Sorry.] See comments.

Let's check the market:
  • two of the three indices up slightly;
    • NASDAQ down 7 points, but it has had a huge run; better than the other two, I believe 
    • individual ticker symbols:
      MPC: at $59.63, up 3.40%; up $1.96; paying 4%
    • AAPL: down 30 cents, or 0.05% -- which be the way is about how much the average global temperature will change over the next century, 0.05%; AAPL down due to coronavirus fears, they say;
    • ETFC (E*Trade): up 25% (this was predictable following Schwab-TD Ameritrade)
    • SRE: up slightly after being down yesterday
    • MDU, on a buying binge late, is up slightly today;
    • BKH: down slightly
    • D: up 0.7%
    • ENB: up slightly
    • EPD: up half a percent, paying almost 7%; trading at $26; target: $34;
    • OKE: up 2%; trading at $78.28, target: $76.73; paying almost 5%;
    • UNP: up slightly; trending toward its 52-week high; 
Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, career, travel, job, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

Re-posting: ETFC (E*Trade): up 25% (this was predictable following Schwab-TD Ameritrade).


Fact-Checking Breaking News -- February 20, 2020

Updates

Later, 10:41 p.m. Central Time: I spoke too soon. Market sell off. Dow down 310 points; down 1%. Reason: "a" Federal Reserve governor said this morning: don't expect any rate cuts any time soon. Buying opportunity. Panic vs FOMO. Traders on the floor, according a Fox Business News talking torso -- this has to do with coronavirus out of China. Yeah, panic. Sell-off began immediately after WHO press conference: pandemic. Reminds me of the Obama era; following every one of his speeches, it seemed, the market fell. Gold at 7-year highs. GS: probable correction; coronavirus not adequately factored in.


Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.


Original Post

Fake news: we're so lucky to have the internet. We can do fact checking ourselves. Here's the top of the banner headline over at Yahoo!Finance! OMG! Stocks drifting lower! The Trump economy is tanking! Time to sell. Coronavirus will get us all.


Here's the rest of the story:
  • all three major indices reached all-time highs yesterday, although two of the three did not close at all-time highs, pulling back a little before the end of the day;
  • today, after the market hit all-time highs, we would expect some profit-taking; and, 
  • the pundits provided that narrative -- coronavirus fears / stocks drift lower:
In fact, all three major indices -- after hitting all-time record highs yesterday, are drifting higher:



**********************************
Post-Debate

This morning I got up early -- prepare for an early morning of Uber-granddaughter driving -- eager to see how "Morning Joe" would report the debate.

They were interviewing some "scholar."

The question: "Which candidate has the gravitas to be the next commander-in-chief?"

The answer, and I kid you not: "It was a great debate, nice to see come competition."

In other words: no one on stage had the gravitas to be the next commander-in-chief. That's probably not the question that MSNBC executives want their talking heads to ask.

*************************
To Answer Your Question

"Yes, senator, to answer your question, I am calling you dumb. I am not mocking you. Facts are facts."

I was aware that Senator Klobuchar -- a legend in her own mind, and said to be the smartest candidate of either party -- could not remember or did not know the name of the Mexican president.

What I did not know, from the AP:
And ongoing animosity flared between Buttigieg and Klobuchar when the former Indiana mayor slammed the three-term Minnesota senator for failing to answer questions in a recent interview about Mexican policy and forgetting the name of the Mexican president. [Did she forget or did she not know? Huge difference.]
Buttigieg noted that she’s on a committee that oversees trade issues in Mexico and she “was not able to speak to literally the first thing about the politics of the country.”
She shot back: “Are you trying to say I’m dumb? Are you mocking me here?”
Obviously, Klobuchar was not punching above her weight last night.

By the way, the Founders were smart to include a minimum age limit for president (otherwise AOC would have been on the stage) but they really, really, really dropped the ball when they failed to include a maximum age limit. That was brought home when VP Biden, although unable to name them, mentioned that he had met a dozen past Mexican presidents, including, no doubt, President General Antonio López de Santa Anna.