Erratic Production In The Bakken -- November 11, 2019

The well:

• 33979, 161, BR, Kermit 4-8-32 MBH, Pershing, t8/18; cum 238K 9/19;

Full production profile:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	9-2019	22	19495	19667	8349	34258	14602	18884
BAKKEN	8-2019	31	44899	44539	19342	73360	33496	38214
BAKKEN	7-2019	30	2469	2485	991	4085	2726	1214
BAKKEN	6-2019	10	5172	5323	1832	8483	4883	3405
BAKKEN	5-2019	19	19267	19428	7153	30837	23828	5907
BAKKEN	4-2019	30	26099	26117	9166	46665	42335	1958
BAKKEN	3-2019	19	11606	11343	2405	24164	17300	5118
BAKKEN	2-2019	1	128	258	59	234	207	0
BAKKEN	1-2019	31	26513	26423	7878	35682	6868	27860
BAKKEN	12-2018	31	23711	23699	7143	21501	2975	17958
BAKKEN	11-2018	30	23336	23347	6313	21278	3804	16952
BAKKEN	10-2018	31	31078	31000	7495	20455	7432	12371
BAKKEN	9-2018	24	3775	3711	1582	3378	2953	0
BAKKEN	8-2018	1	460	460	10877	2473	1579	0

Is EOG About Ready To Exit The Bakken? -- November 11, 2019

A reader suggested EOG may be about ready to exist the Bakken.

Looking at this list of permits now canceled it's hard to disagree. This is an incredibly good area in the Bakken:

• 31403, 1,447, EOG, West Clark 117-0136H, Clarks Creek, 36 stages, 27.65 million lbs t5/16; cum 308K 2/19;
• 31388, PNC,
• 31387, PNC,
• 31386, PNC,
• 31385, PNC,
• 31384, PNC,
• 31383, PNC, 
• 31382, PNC, 
• 31381, PNC,
• 31380, PNC,
• 31379, PNC,
• 31378, PNC,
• 31377, PNC,
• 31376, PNC,
• 31375, PNC,
• 31374, conf,
• 31257, PNC,
• 31256, PNC,
• 31255, PNC,
• 31254, PNC,
• 31253, loc,
• 31252, PNC,
• 31251, PNC,
• 31250, PNC,
• 31249, TA/127, EOG, West Clark 105-0136H,
• 31248, 1,272, EOG, West Clark 104-0136H, Clarks Creek, 36 stages, 21.029 million lbs; t5/16; cum 188K 2/19;
• 31247, 1,613, EOG, West Clark 103-0136H, Clarks Creek, 37 stages, 21.15 million lbs; t5/16; cum 196K 9/19;
• 31246, PNC,

Notes From All Over, Part 2 -- November 11, 2019

The market: "not in a million years," as they say, would I have expected the "market" to be as strong as it was today. The Dow might even eke out a slight gain before the day is over. I would have bet a fair amount that the market would have "crashed and burned" today. In fact, I thought I posted that on the blog but can't find it now. The market was primed for a huge fall today: a) profit-taking -- once a few large "sell orders" would have come through, the algorithms would have taken over -- on the sell side; b) China trade talk seems to be less optimistic today than it was Friday; and, c) light volume. Not only did the market "hold" pretty well, but some individual stocks did very well:

• AAPL: quite remarkable, to say the least -- up another $1.75 today, on a day I would have expected a pretty good pullback
• ENB: up almost a percent
• KMI: down about half a percent
• BAX: up half a percent;
• ABBV: up half a percent;
• But look at this: Boeing up almost 5%; up almost $17 on a $365-stock
• BAX: up about half a percent
• ABBV: up about a third of a percent
• IMUX: down almost 3%; down 24 cents;
• TSLA: up 2.5%; up over $8
• CVX: down 0.1%

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, career, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

Others:

• SRE: up 0.2%, surprising
• BRK-B: down about a third of a percent
• D: down almost a percent
• F: up 2 cents; stays above $9
• UNP: up 50 cents; again, surprising

************************************

OXY: Starting To Sell Assets

On the block:

• Anadarko assets in Wyoming, Colorado -- up to $700 million -- Reuters, published today
• 200,000 net acres
• $66 million / year in cash flow
• $700 million / 200,000 = $3500/acre (very similar to the "number" Equinor received for Eagle Ford assets
• a four-story office building in the heart of the Permian (shows how desperate things have become -- a story about selling a four-story building); Bloomberg via Rigzone;

************************************** 

Global Warming Or Grand Solar Minimum?

Now We're Up To 300 -- Last Week It Was "Only" 170

From the AP:

• Arctic blast to break more than 300 records across the US
• eastern two-thirds of the continental US
• the next five to seven days won't just be cold-- they'll be record-breaking
• five to seven days
• O'Hare, Chicago:
• weather already claimed one airline incident, an American Eagle flight sliding off the runway
• by 11: 00 a.m. ET more than 600 flights in/out of O'Hare/Midway were canceled due to weather conditions 

****************************************

Dallas Football

Highest paid runner in the NFL:

Ezekiel Elliott finished the evening with 20 carries for 47 yards. His longest run was 6 yards. With 1:33 remaining and the outcome on the line, he carried twice from the Minnesota 11-yard line, losing 3 yards.

Back-of-the-proverbial envelope:

• 47 / 20 = 2.35 yards/carry

From The Most Rational Man In The Universe -- Flashback -- 1978

The next ice age. LOL.

Leonard Nimoy, the most rational man in the universe
This is so interesting, and had I not blogged, it's likely I never would have known.

Leonard Nimoy -- known for his rational thinking, his scientific curiosity. He narrates the world-famous film at the Griffith Observatory --

The 190-seat Leonard Nimoy Event Horizon presentation theater dramatically expands the Observatory's programming and education capabilities. The Leonard Nimoy Event Horizon realizes an unfulfilled intention of the Observatory's original architects to have a second theater to complement the planetarium.

Though not constructed with the original building, the idea for a presentation theater was not lost, and the need became especially evident as the number of Observatory visitors and programs increased over the years.

The public presentation - "The Once and Future Griffith Observatory" - is a 24-minute film which weaves the history, recent renovation, and future of the Observatory into a tale of observation and inspiration. The theater also hosts live programs and demonstrations including All Space Considered and Let's Make a Comet. The Leonard Nimoy Event Horizon is also a classroom for the Observatory's school programs. 

There was never any science behind global warming; it was a global scam. But "ice age"? Lots of science behind it. 

From a scientist, sent to me by a reader, November 13, 2019, validating my "science" remarks and the science as stated by Leonard Nimoy:

Descent into the next Glacial Period perhaps within our lifetimes

The effects of global cooling will be far more devastating than global warming. 

-- Gregory F. Fegel

Unlike the current CO2-caused Global Warming hysteria, the threat of an approaching “Ice Age” Glacial Period that was presented in the 1970s was based on solid science — including the combined evidence of the geologic record, ice cores, sea sediments, and pollens, all of which matched the cyclical insolation (amount of sunlight) pattern caused by the orbital Milankovitch cycles.

In the 1970s, it was confirmed that the Milankovitch cycles cause the Ice Age cycle — which is taught in earth-science textbooks.

In the 1970s, the media emphasized the fact that a large change in the Earth’s mean global temperature could happen within decades — in that way the media promoted “global cooling hysteria” in the 1970s. In spite of the fact that the climate in the 1980s and 90s became warmer, the scientific evidence for an approaching Glacial Period was valid, and it remains valid. Some scientists claim that our current warm interglacial (the Holocene) will be different from the previous interglacials by lasting twice as long — giving us another 15,000 years of a warm climate. However, that theory of a warm 15,000-year extension is speculative.

Based on the regularity and timing of the Ice Age cycle so far, we should expect the descent into the next Glacial Period to begin (approximately) within hundreds of years, or perhaps within our own lifetimes. The idea that either natural or anthropogenic causes will intercede to prevent the next Glacial Period from returning within its usual time-frame is speculative — and it is perhaps a result of wishful thinking.

If planners and governments want to prepare for a substantial “climate change” in the future, it’s global cooling they should be concerned about, not global warming.

Firstly, because severe global cooling is more likely to happen (eventually). Secondly, because the effects of global cooling will be far more devastating than global warming. A global sea-level rise caused by global warming would be easier to cope with than arctic conditions in Northern Europe, Russia, Canada, and Alaska caused by global cooling.

A warmer global climate would be a net benefit for all life on Earth.

Norway's Equinor will Sell US Eagle Ford Assets To Spain's Repsol -- November 11, 2019

Updates

Later, 2:36 p.m. CT: see comments. A reader has provided the link to ShaleProfile's September, 2019, update. One may want to compare the EIA dashboard with projected production through November, 2019.  The Director's Cut is scheduled to be released this Friday, November 15, 2019, at 10:00 a.m. This is getting deep into the weeds but September, 2019, might be an interesting month to note "production" vs "runs." September, 2019, one of the wettest, if not the wettest, September on record should have huge effect on "runs." Production may or may not be as greatly affected.

Original Post

Link at Rigzone. Data points:

• $325 million deal.
• 69,000 net acres
• back-of-the-proverbial envelope: $5,000 / acre
• In a statement:

“This transaction supports Equinor’s strategy to optimize our onshore U.S. portfolio, enhancing our financial flexibility and focusing our capital on our core activities in the country,” Torgrim Reitan, Equinor’s executive vice president for Development and Production International, said in a company statement.

“The US is a core area for Equinor, demonstrated by recent acquisitions including assets in the Gulf of Mexico, onshore acreage in the Austin Chalk and the Empire Wind project offshore New York,” he added.

• The Bakken was not mentioned as a core are for Equinor, which I find quite strange. Were they being politically correct by mentioning an offshore wind project instead? Probably.  
• Later: see first comment and my reply. Time to take another look at Equinor in the Bakken
• Equinor's website: hard to find any mention of the Bakken but also very hard to find anything on their Austin Chalk play

***********************************

Enbridge

Link at Rigzone: Enbridge adding more pipeline capacity. Data points:

• Enbridge: North America's largest pipeline company
• adding about 100,000 bopd by optimizing its current system; up from a previous forecast of 85,000 bbls
• Line 3,  replacement and expansion, $7 billion
• expects its distributable cash flow for the year to exceed the midpoint of its guidance range

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, career, travel, job, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

***********************************

Looking For Dividends
"3 out of 5 ain't bad"

Barron's: five stocks with big, steady dividends, November 4, 2019:

• AT&T: 5.3%
• Schlumberger: 6.1%
• AbbVie: 5.4%
• Simon Property Group: 5.6%
• Iron Mountain: 7.5%

***********************************

First, It Was TDS; Now, ADS

October 21, 2019, issue, of The New Yorker: "Is Amazon Unstoppable?" Eighteen pages of pleasure.