Out And About In The Bakken -- July 9, 2019

Another well goes over 500K bbls of oil:

• 30074, 981, Slawson, Howo 2-4-33MLH, Big Bend, t4/15; cum 515K 5/19;

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	5-2019	31	3977	4353	1566	3259	2255	425
BAKKEN	4-2019	30	3626	4073	1531	2744	1757	453
BAKKEN	3-2019	20	1644	1364	1073	1387	1028	85
BAKKEN	2-2019	15	1029	659	699	709	331	195
BAKKEN	1-2019	23	1465	2208	839	1308	1010	30
BAKKEN	12-2018	31	1348	660	911	1077	609	169
BAKKEN	11-2018	29	2648	2599	1193	2016	1506	84
BAKKEN	10-2018	26	2732	3097	1115	1966	835	710

Back in production:

• 29688, 779, Hess, SC-Bingeman-154-98-0904H-4, Truax, t8/15; cum 135K 5/19;

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	5-2019	31	2361	2337	3575	3208	2490	710
BAKKEN	4-2019	30	2439	2426	3515	3780	3214	565
BAKKEN	3-2019	23	2236	2200	3338	2317	1506	803
BAKKEN	2-2019	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	1-2019	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	12-2018	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	11-2018	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	10-2018	0	0	42	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	9-2018	0	0	0	0	37	37	0
BAKKEN	8-2018	5	108	847	193	533	445	73
BAKKEN	7-2018	31	1682	1276	1044	5822	5509	190
BAKKEN	6-2018	30	1111	957	766	4858	3164	1641

And coming out of production (in fact all four wells on two neighboring pads are off line: #29170, #29170, #29169, and #29168); I assume the BR West Kellogg wells about a mile to the east are being fracked:

• 29169, 905, CLR, Kellogg Ranch Federal 3-32H, Elidah, t9/15; cum 336K 5/19; off line as of 4/19;

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	5-2019	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	4-2019	16	1875	2086	1085	3323	162	2782
BAKKEN	3-2019	31	3597	3748	2107	6491	2150	3511
BAKKEN	2-2019	28	3343	3071	2065	9319	8639	0
BAKKEN	1-2019	31	3753	3966	2306	8983	6723	1469
BAKKEN	12-2018	30	4045	3768	2770	8466	5818	1834

Making America Even Greater Tomorrow -- July 9, 2019

Updates

December 10, 2019: from Rigzone --

Enbridge Inc. and Enterprise Products Partners L.P. have agreed to jointly develop and market a deepwater offshore crude oil export terminal capable of fully loading very large crude carrier (VLCC) vessels, Enbridge reported Monday, December 9, 2019.

The companies have signed a letter of intent under which they will finalize an equity participation agreement granting Enbridge an option to purchase an ownership interest in Enterprise’s Sea Port Oil Terminal (SPOT) if SPOT receives a deepwater port license.

Enterprise also noted the SPOT project would comprise onshore and offshore facilities including a fixed platform approximately 30 nautical miles off the Brazoria County, Texas, coast in approximately 115 feet of water. The company added that SPOT would be designed to load VLCCs at rates of approximately 85,000 barrels per hour – equating to approximately 2 million barrels per day.

Enbridge’s involvement in SPOT will help the company provide its North American light and heavy crude customers with access to the Houston-area refining market and growing global demand.

Original Post 

Some years ago, RBN Energy provided a "what's coming" list with regard to LNG export terminals for the US. Now, RBN Energy is providing a similar list regarding new offshore crude oil terminals.

The key word there: offshore. 

From RBN Energy today:

While expansion projects at onshore terminals allow their developers to build off of existing infrastructure, what they cannot do — at least so far — is enable their docks to fully load deep-draft, 2-MMbbl VLCCs, which are the most cost-efficient waterborne means for transporting crude long distances (like from the Gulf Coast to Asia).

To fill a VLCC to the gills, you need more than 72 feet of draft, and to get that along most of the Texas and Louisiana coast, you typically have to go out at least several miles. Hence, the growing importance of deepwater offshore terminals like the Louisiana Offshore Oil Port (LOOP), which since the early 1980s has been receiving VLCCs fully laden with foreign crude — and since early 2018 has been sending out a small but growing number of VLCCs filled to the brim with U.S.-sourced oil.

LOOP is still the only Gulf Coast facility capable of fully loading VLCCs.

Otherwise, VLCCs exporting crude are generally reverse lightered in specified deepwater lightering areas in the Gulf — a couple of onshore terminals (Moda Midstream’s Ingleside facility near Corpus Christi, and Seaway’s Texas City terminal) can load VLCCs about halfway at their docks, then top them off via reverse lightering.

The initial round:

• EPD: a 2-million bopd Sea Port Oil Termianl (SPOT) 30+ miles off the coast of Brazoria County, TX
• Enbridge/Oiltanking: a proposed 2-million bopd Colt Offshore Loading Terminal about 30 miles south of Freeport, TX
• Jupiter MLP: a 1-million bopd terminal project six miles off Brownville, TX
• Tallgrass Energy: a proposed 1-million bopd terminal near the mouth of the Mississippi River and Venice, LA
• Trafigura: a proposed 0.5-million Texas Gulf Terminal 15 miles off Corpus Christi
• Carlyle Group: Lone Star Ports, onshore crude export terminal on Harbor Island, near the entry to the Corpus Christi Ship Channel; would deepen the channel entry to 75 feet to allow full loading of VLCCs

Latest: two newer offshore crude export terminals; both filed applications with MARAD over the past few weeks --

• Sentinel Midstream: a proposed 1-million bopd Texas GulfLink project; 33 miles off the coast of Freeport, TX
• Phillips 66: a proposed 1-million bopd Bluewater Texas Terminal (Bluewater, for short); 17 miles off Corpus Christi

As a reader suggested when RBN Energy posted the LNG export terminal list, just because a company has filed an application doesn't mean the project will get off the ground (or in this case, get off the water). So, that's the disclaimer, as it were.

So, let's add up the "export capacity" for the above listed proposed projects:

1. EPD: 2
2. Enbridge: 2
3. Jupiter: 1
4. Tallgrass: 1
5. Trafigura: 0.5
6. Carlyle (onshore): unknown, but let's call it 1 million b/d
7. Sentinel: 1
8. Phillips 66: 1
9. Total: almost 10 million bopd new export capacity

Is 10 million bopd plausible? See this note posted earlier today. Wood Mackenzie says the Permian will add 4 million bopd takeaway capacity by 2022 and that will still be much less than required by the mid 2030s.

Just imagine when the rest of the world runs out of oil (as predicted by the Peak Oilers) and the US government applies a $25/barrel tax on all outgoing crude oil to pay for "Medicare For All." Something tells me Occasional-Cortex will be able to do the math by then. Okay, I'm joking (choking?) on that one.

What a great country.

Click On The Link At Your Own Risk .... July 9, 2019

Disclaimer: I am not responsible for contributing to your addiction if you click on the link.

I simply don't have time for this.

Link here.

I never should have clicked on the link.

I can't quit watching ... and it's 30 minutes long. And now I'm hooked.

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The Book Page

One of my favorite openings to any book was from Isak Dinesen's Out of Africa:

I had a farm in Africa, at the foot of the Ngong Hils. The Equator runs across these highlands, a hundred miles to the North, and the farm lay at an altitude of over six thousand feet. In the day-time you felt that you had got high up, near to the sun, but the early mornings and evenings were limpid and restful, and the nights were cold.

I was reminded of that when reading Norman Sherry's biography of Graham Greene, volume II: 1939 - 1955, page 153:

Greene swore in Ways of Escape that for the first six months in Freetown [Sierra Leone] he was a happy man, for he was in a land he loved: though the evidence of his letters suggest his happiness and his love were intermittent. Yet in retrospect, he felt able to quote Kipling: 

"We've only one virginity to lose. And where we have lost it here our hearts will be."

'At thirty-one in Liberia I had lost my hear to West Africa.' -- Graham Greene, letter.

Greene's liking for West Africa is best expressed in Hargreaves's conversation in The Human Factor:

It's what politicians call a realistic policy, and realims never got anyone very far in the kind of Africa I used to know. My Africa was a sentimental Africa. I really loved Africa ... The Chinese don't, nor do the Russians, nor the Americans ... How easy it was in the old days when we dealt with chiefs and witch doctors and bush schools and devils and rain queens. My Africa was still alittle like the Africa of Rider Haggard.

And the Africans liked the eccentric British.

Making America Great -- The Permian -- July 9, 2019

All last week we were inundated with stories coming out of Saudi Arabia and Russia that the two would simply out-wait the US. It looks like the wait will be quite awhile.

This story over at Rigzone is really quite remarkable: how fast the Permian is growing and how much more infrastructure is needed.

Here is Wood Mackenzie's take:

• the takeaway capacity in the Permian is way behind production potential of the Permian
• expect another wave of pipeline construction by the end of the decade (are you listening Saudi Arabia, Russia?)
• "as production growth expands well into the 2030s, US Gulf Coast-bound pipeline capacity will tighten -- repeat -- well into the 2030s, pipeline capacity will tighten
• by the mid-2030s, Permian pipeline utilization will exceed 92% in the absence of further investment
• a moderate overbuild will occur early next decade
• by the end of 2022, approximately 4 million bopd of new capacity will be added
• repeat:  by the end of 2022, approximately 4 million bopd of new capacity will be added; that's literally around the corner; no state lines to cross; no international issues; no federal government interference; it's all Texas, baby
• this 4-million-bbl build assumes seven (7) proposals for new Permian pipelines
• two to three years of overbuild but production will then catch up
• "We are in the midst of one of the largest crude infrastructure investment booms in US history, with much of the investment focused on the Permian basin. As massive as this current investment wave is, we don't think the story is yet finished."
• even after this build, Wood Mackenzie anticipates another all for up to 500,000 bpd for the Permian, during the middle to latter half of the next decade

All that talk by the Saudi energy minister that the kingdom will simply out-wait the US is simply that: talk.

******************************
Newfield To Divest Its Natural Gas Assets in Oklahoma's Arkoma Basin

Story here.

*******************************

Polling? More Fake "Science"?

How accurate can polls be when, for Bernie Sanders:

• The Economist: 9%
• all other polls: 13% (Quinnipiac) to 19% (Politico) for Sanders

Yes, the dates of the polls may be key, but still ....

Link here.

At 9%, he's just one of the pack well behind Biden; at 19%, he's a contender.

*********************************

Flashback

Posted elsewhere on the blog earlier, but definitely worth re-posting: https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-11-10/trumps-geographic-landslide.

Two Wells Coming Off Confidential List Today; Active Rigs Back To 60 -- July 9, 2019

Note: temporary weight restrictions in place on Williams County roads due to rain. 

Wells coming off the confidential list today -- Tuesday, July 9, 2019: 8 for the month; 8 for the quarter;

• 35544, SI/NC, WPX, Delores Sand 29-32HY, Antelope-Sanish, no production data,
• 34095, 2,457, CLR, Colter 8-14H1, 41 stages; 10.2 million lbs; Bear Creek, t3/19; cum 75K 5/19;

Active rigs:

$58.09	7/9/2019	07/09/2018	07/09/2017	07/09/2016	07/09/2015
Active Rigs	60	65	56	29	74

RBN Energy: new entrants in the race to build offshore crude export terminals, part 6.

The competition to develop the one or possibly two new offshore crude oil export terminals that the U.S. will likely need by the mid-2020s has been under way for more than a year now, and the field of contestants continues to expand. Within the past few weeks, both Phillips 66 and Sentinel Midstream filed applications with the U.S. Maritime Administration (MARAD) — Phillips 66’s project would be located off the coast of Corpus Christi and Sentinel’s in the waters off Freeport. And who knows, maybe another deepwater project or two capable of fully loading Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCCs) might still be in the offing. Today, we update our series on prospective offshore crude export terminals with a look at the P66 and Sentinel project details revealed by their applications to MARAD.

One of the more interesting questions in the U.S. energy business today is which of the seven individual companies and joint ventures planning to build new deepwater terminals for exporting crude off the Texas and Louisiana coasts will be the first to reach a final investment decision (FID) on their project. The query regarding who crosses the FID line first is particularly important because, as we said a couple of weeks ago, the Gulf Coast — with an estimated 5.1 MMb/d of crude export capacity in place — will likely need at least another 1 MMb/d of capacity by 2024 or so as production keeps rising in the Permian and other major shale plays. While still more export capacity may be required in the mid-2020, the palpable fear of a capacity overbuild suggests that only a few of the proposed offshore terminals (and onshore-terminal expansion projects) will be able to secure the necessary throughput commitments to advance their plans to construction.