The Market, Energy, And Political Page, T+36 -- September 18, 2018 -- And On A Percentage Basis, The Bakken Is The "Growth" Winner

Saudi data: lots of numbers in this article over at oilprice regarding Saudi Arabia. Three data points: Saudi crude oil production; exports; and, crude oil inventories. Of the three, Saudi's crude oil production is most interesting:

• July, 2018: 10.3 million bopd
• August, 2018: 10.4 million bopd

Chinese diesel demand hits peak -- LOL -- in 2030: over at oilprice -- Reuters says Chines crude oil demand will peak in .... drum roll ... 2030 at 690 million tons annually -- almost 14 million bopd; gasoline demand will peak around 2025. If all goes to plan, China will switch from gasoline and diesel to coal to provide electricity for their growing fleet of electric buses.

Forecasts, from SeekingAlpha;

• a new report from the Department of Energy predicts production in the Permian Basin will continue to grow more than any other U.S. shale field next month despite tightening pipeline capacity, which may have fallen below production
• the report predicts the Permian will add 31K bbl/day of oil production in October, bringing the play's overall output near 3.5M bbl/day (31K/3.5 million = 0.8% (not quite 1%)
• the Eagle Ford Shale is expected to add 16K bbl/day, bringing its output closer to 1.5M bbl/day (slightly more than 1% growth)
• the Bakken field in North Dakota is forecast to add 14K bbl/day of oil production to more than 1.3M bbl/day (the most growth, at almost 1.08% growth)

Market: while CNBC continues to talk the market down, no one has mentioned this. All things being equal, a rising bond market is deleterious for the stock market. For the past year, talking heads have set the 10-year bond as the metric to watch. The threshold was seen as 3% by most talking heads. As long as the10-year bond stayed below a 3% yield, the stock market would/should/could go higher; but if the 10-year bond yield went over 3% then one would expect the market to fall. So, what happened today? The 10-year bond yield is ... drum roll ... 3.04% at the very moment the Dow is flirting with an all-time intra-day high ... currently up an incredible 250 points. 

WTI: $70.30.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

BRK-B: completely escaped my attention -- flirting with 52-week highs.

Oil sector: across the board, is going to do well today.

Ethanol: on the ropes. Two ethanol producers in Iowa shutting down. Blaming it on "bossa nova" (loosely translated as "new sheriff in town" -- LOL).

Blame It On The Bossa Nova, Eydie Gormé

Graph Of The Day -- September 18, 2018

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For The Archives

Beating a dead horse but can't resist.

Killed, delayed, deferred:

• Enbridge Northern Gateway
• Enbridge Line 3
• TransCanada Keystone XL
• Kinder Morgan Trans Mountain Expansion

Announced yesterday:

• Kinder Morgan to sell all assets in Canada; says Canada is "closed for business"  

CNI is going to need a lot of help. Speaking of which, check out GBX.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or what you think you may have read here.

Blogging Delayed -- September 18, 2018 -- 100% Of Wells Coming Off Confidential List Today -- To DUC Status

Trump wins again: Germany will import US LNG. Won't amount to much in the short term, but over time ... who knows?

Boom! Bismarck developer lays plans for 2,800-home community. Huge story.

That didn't last long: those "green" decals in California. LOL. See bottom of the post.

Amazon: this is pretty cool. Last week I mentioned the Amazon vans in our neighborhood. Now this story tonight: Amazon just ordered 20,000 new vans.

Strange, strange day:

• Dow (irrelevant) futures up 88 points
• Trump announces more tariffs on China, and threatens to increase them by year-end -- only three months from now
• Chinese stock market in free fall
• Chinese billionaires losing billions
• waiting for news of Chinese bankers jumping out of windows
• WTI flirting with $70 again
• UNP up an astounding4.17% in pre-market trading; up $6.54/share
• headline: 2/3rds of Prime members would bank with Amazon -- maybe Amazon and Schwab will team up
• OAS, NOG could have a huge day
• wow, SRE up over 1%, and now trading above $120
• ever since it was publicly released that Warren sold some of his COP (after the initial few days), COP has gone higher; meanwhile AAPL dropped like a rock yesterday; AAPL will trade a bit higher today

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or what you think you may have read here.

Blogging delayed: I was at Starbucks this morning at 6:00 a.m. or so, arriving by bike before sunrise. Unable to get connected to wi-fi.

Finally biked over to McDonald's -- got on to wi-fi immediately. So, I'm already behind.

Usually when I'm this far behind, it's not even worth blogging for the day.

So, we'll get started when we get started.

Very, very busy at McDonald's. Line very, very long.

Simply ordered on the kiosk and lo and behold, my order delivered to me a few minutes later.

Wells coming off the confidential list today: Tuesday, September 18, 2018

• 34562, SI/NC, Abraxas, Ravin 10H, North Fork, no production data, 
• 34559, SI/NC, XTO, Bobcat Federal 11X-2F2-S, Bear Creek, no production data,
• 33739, SI/NC, Hess, BB-Federal B-151-95-2122H-6, Blue Buttes, no production data,
• 31771, SI/NC, BR, Sanvan 8-1-29UTFH-ULW, Elidah, no production data,

Active rigs:

$69.84↑↑	9/18/2018	09/18/2017	09/18/2016	09/18/2015	09/18/2014
Active Rigs	66	56	32	67	199

RBN Energy: the crude oil hub at Cushing -- who owns what; how it's used.

The crude oil hub at Cushing, OK, has more than 90 MMbbl of tankage, 3.7 MMb/d of incoming pipeline capacity and 3.1 MMb/d of outbound pipes. That’s an impressive amount of infrastructure by any standard. The real marvel of the place, though, is the variety of important roles it plays and services it provides for a wide range of market participants — producers, midstream companies, refiners and marketers, as well as producer/marketer and refiner/marketer hybrids. To truly understand Cushing — what it does and how it works — you need to know the hub’s assets and how they fit together. Today, we continue a series on the “Pipeline Crossroads of the World” with a look at the companies that own Cushing storage capacity and how that storage is put to use.

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Minor Notes

Enbridge: previously announced, from SeekingAlpha --

• Enbridge announces deals to acquire all public equity of sponsored units Enbridge Energy Partners, Enbridge Energy Management, and Enbridge Income Fund Holdings, simplifying its corporate structure and detailing a plan proposed in May
• EEP unitholders will receive 0.335 ENB common shares for each common unit owned, representing an 8.7% increase to the exchange ratio proposed by ENB on May 17
• EEQ shareholders will receive 0.335 ENB common shares for each share owned, which is at parity with the EEP exchange ratio
• EBGUF shareholders will receive 0.735 ENB common shares for each share owned plus C$0.45 cash per share, representing a 9.8% increase to the exchange ratio proposed on May 16, and 11.3% including the cash component
• ENB bought out its Spectra Energy Partners subsidiary in a deal announced in August

Seeing "red." Governor Moonbeam says "green" decals bought before 2017 -- only two years ago -- no good. Need to buy a new car in 2019 if you want a "green" decal. Pretty funny.

XTO Fenton Federal With Huge Jump In Production -- September 17, 2018

See graphic at this link: http://themilliondollarway.blogspot.com/2018/09/for-newbies-this-is-happening-all-over.html.

Check out recent production:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	7-2018	31	14319	13919	40157	22050	96	21539
BAKKEN	6-2018	30	4630	4063	33235	7118	721	6068
BAKKEN	5-2018	1	88	0	2035	137	0	129
BAKKEN	4-2018	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	3-2018	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	2-2018	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	1-2018	4	210	243	232	328	278	0
BAKKEN	12-2017	31	1648	1881	767	2776	2396	0
BAKKEN	11-2017	30	1771	1670	591	2259	1913	0
BAKKEN	10-2017	31	1745	1609	726	2783	1623	776

Three Forks, stimulated June 25, 2010: 905K lbs sand (that's less than a million lbs of sand).

• no sundry form to suggest it was re-fracked
• FracFocus with no data to suggest it was re-fracked

Taken off-line for a few months; production jumps from 2,000 bbls/month to 14,000 bbls/month.

There are thousands of Bakken wells that will go through this cycle before it's all over.


The well:

• 17407, 1,273, XTO, Fenton Federal 11X-20, Lost Bridge, t6/09; cum 228K 7/18; 

This one has a great story, but too late tonight. If I remember, I will post the story tomorrow.

Watford City Posts Largest Jump In School Enrollment In History -- Apparently Those Stories Of The End Of The Bakken Boom Were Highly Exaggerated And Premature -- September 17, 2018

Watford City, from myndnow:

"We had to add another section in kindergarten, we have about 191 kindergartners."

"We had to get a bit creative and move the third graders out of our elementary school, so it's a K-2 building now with a 3-6 building along with a 7-12."

All of this has been caused by the biggest-ever single year student population increase in Watford City's history this fall - a jump of almost 300.

 "We're looking at about 1830 students right now. We have capacity of about 1900-2000, so with another good growth year like this year we would definitely have a space situation."

The district is well down the path to adding another building - with plans for a new elementary school expected to be finalized soon. Holen, who is starting his 14th year at the helm of Watford City's schools, has seen student numbers balloon from 512 in 2008, to the 1830 today.

Elenore, The Turtles