Monday, February 5, 2018

Resilience -- I'd Like To Buy An "E" -- February 5, 2018

Resilience; Perhaps, having seen the challenges with the "grid" in Germany and the "grid" in Australia, it appears the "FERC" in the US is introducing a new concept into the discussion: "resilience." Link here at UtilityDive.
In a January 8 order, the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission soundly rejected the notion that, to keep the lights on in regions served by bulk power markets, it was necessary to compensate power plants capable of housing 3-month fuel stores. In closing the docket directed by the Department of Energy’s Notice of Proposed Rulemaking, however, FERC opened a “national conversation” about grid resilience.
Regional Transmission Organizations have 60 days to respond to questions posed by FERC, followed by 30 days of “reply” comments from other stakeholders.
In the new proceeding, FERC proposed that resilience means the “ability to withstand and reduce the magnitude and/or duration of disruptive events, which includes the capability to anticipate, absorb, adapt to, and/or rapidly recover from such an event.”
Resilience is a term commonly used in climate adaptation discussions to describe the ability of a community, industry, or ecosystem to adapt to changing temperatures, precipitation patterns, extreme weather events and sea level rise.
The concept has deep roots in multiple disciplines. In engineering, resilience is — as FERC proposes — the capacity of a steady-state system to return to equilibrium after a disturbance. Another more dynamic definition — what some scholars call ecological resilience — references how much outside force a system can take before it changes structure and begins to follow a different, stable set of rules.
Drawing on both concepts, economic resilience describes the capacity of an economy to recover or recreate itself after a shock, in ways that mitigate aggregate losses and negative distributional impacts. 
It's an opinion piece, but does provide some insight into where the discussion is headed. You can bet the wind/solar folks will have a place at the table. The question is whether "we"  have learned anything from the lessons that Germany, Spain, Denmark, Australia have all learned when it comes to the cost of renewables.

Let It Snow, Let It Snow, Let It Snow: The Political Page, T+15 -- February 5, 2018

Updates

February 9, 2018: first snowfall ever in parts of Morocco
Up to 282 cm (110 inches) of snow in the Middle Atlas. That’s more than 9 feet.
Since February 3, 2018, significant snowfall has hit several regions of Morocco, for the first time ever for some.
From February 6 to 7, up to 282 cm of snow was recorded by the National Meteorological Directorate on Jbal Habri (Ifrane) and 272 cm at Michlifen Station.
February 7, 2018: To all the new snowfall records being set this year, add another one -- Erie, Pennsylvania, has broken its all-time snow season record -- call the Kennedys -- call Algore -- they all said our grandchildren would never see snow again.

But now we have Winter Storm Liam and it's going to set more records. Mother Nature never quits. Mother Nature must not have gotten the "global warming" memo. LOL.

From the linked article:
Erie, PA, broke its all-time snowiest season record today; the previous record was set 17 years ago (2000 - 2001). The city still has 30% of its average snowfall yet to happen through spring.

As of 1 p.m. EST Wednesday, the season's snowfall total was 152.1 inches at Erie International Airport, more than 12 feet of snow. This breaks the previous snowiest season of 2000-01 which had 149.1 inches. Snowfall records date back to the 1931-32 winter season, according to the National Weather Service.
Claustrophobic yet? Island fever yet?
 
February 5, 2018:  no links but the snowfall in Moscow over the weekend was incredible; the most ever recorded in one weekend since weather records have been kept. Mayor of Moscow called it the blizzard/snowstorm/snowfall of the century. It's quite a story; easily found despite no link.
 
Original Post
 
Oh, the weather outside is frightful .... Moscow, February 4, 2018:



The headlines keep coming: now, this -- snowfall around the world --
Posted yesterday but re-posting
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China

Speaking of China, I've never been able to wrap my head around the history of the Far East. China has always fascinated me but try as I might, I seem to make no headway.

Some years ago, trying to keep track of cities and regions in China, I put together a pretty nice map that has actually held up over time.

From an earlier post: 
Today's there's a headline article over at Yahoo!Finance about Nanking, China, a "second-tier" city in that country with a population of over 8 million, similar to that of NYC. The best thing I ever did with regard to geography on the blog was "fix" a picture in my mind of what China "looks like." Nanking? Where is it? If it were on the US map, it would be a suburb northwest of Charleston, SC, (Shanghai) up the Yangtze River. Maybe similar to Summerville, SC, where we lived for several years. 


Last week I saw a new book at the local Japanese bookstore and without hesitation, bought it: A New Literary History of Modern China, edited by David Der-Wei Wang, c. 2017. The map above has come in quite handy, interestingly enough.

For example, there are currently four direct-controlled municipalities of China (US cities on the map):
  • Beijing (Philadelphia)
  • Tianjin (NYC)
  • Shanghai (Charleston, SC)
  • Chongqing (east of St Louis, MO; maybe I should label it Memphis/Nashville, TN)
The book is the fourth in a series being published by Harvard University on the modern literary history of various countries. The first book was on France; then came Germany; and, the third in the series was on America. I have not seen any of those but will see if they are available at Half-Price Books.

But I digress. The Literary History of Modern China has 161 essays by 143 authors, with a total of 957 pages. The introduction is 28 pages long.

I'm in the process of "cataloguing" each of the essays -- they cover the literary history of China from the 17th century, though there are references to earlier works.

As noted, there are 161 essays; I have catalogues the first 68 so I still have a ways to go. But already I'm starting to get a feel for Chinese history, as it progressed through the Ming and Qing dynasties, and into the revolution in 1916 - 1917 or thereabouts and the founding of the Chinese Communist Party and now into China of the 20th and 21st centuries.

Monday, February 5, 2018 -- Americans Push Back On Wind

For the archives: the Philadelphia Eagles defeat the New England Patriots. But that's still not enough to turn this market around. Apparently one of the most exciting Super Bowl games in NFL history (I don't know; I did not watch it).

Was it Timberlake singing Prince, or was it Pink singing the National Anthem? Super Bowl LII had lowest ratings in eight (8) years.

Missed it by that much:  The Eagles (with their back up coach; back-up offensive coach; backup quarterback) prevented the defending champion Patriots from claiming a sixth Super Bowl to match the Pittsburgh Steelers for the most wins ever.

Making America great again, from EIA via Twitter:


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Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

$65.042/5/201802/05/201702/05/201602/05/201502/05/2014
Active Rigs584042136191

RBN Energy: US oil, gas, NGLs now inextricably linked to global energy markets.

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Wind

Two stories sent to me by readers. First, this one from Fairmont, MN.
Wind Locked, LLC is a non-profit company made up of residents and landowners in Faribault and Martin County who oppose the construction of a wind turbine industrial zone on agricultural land and rural homesteads.
According to the company’s website, “Members feel these projects are unsafe and an inappropriate use of land rights, privacy, and federal tax subsidies.”
With the goal to keep large wind turbines out of the area, the company acquires and holds the wind easement rights of its members’ properties for conservation and environmental purposes.
And then this from The Christian Science Monitor: Oklahoma, America's #2 wind producer, sours on the industry.
With ever more spiky wind turbines cropping up across its open lands, Oklahoma has just become the #2 state in the country for wind energy production.

Now a new project -- Wind Catcher, which is slated to be one of the largest wind farms in American -- is facing stiff resistance and could be scrapped altogether.

The Wind Catcher case comes amid a pushback on wind incentives, galvanized by a state budget crisis and influential oil and gas interests. In the past year, Oklahoma has ended two key incentives that even wind proponents admitted were in some ways "too generous."

But some are pushing not only to remove all subsidies, but to levy a new tax on wind.

Enid stands to benefit from the $4.5 billion Wind Catcher project, which includes plans to build a 350-mile transmission line that would pass through the area.

Public Service Company of Oklahoma (PSO) which is investing $1.3 billion in the project, says Wind Catcher will save Oklahoma electric customers an estimated $2 billion over 25 years. That would be a relief for many in a state where summer electric bills often run $400 r more a month

But there's a problem.

PSO skipped a required competitive bidding process for building the transmission line. That was intentional; it wanted to finish the project before a federal tax credit expires at the end of 2020. Now it needs an exemption from the Oklahoma Corporation Commission (CC), which regulates public utilities.

The state's attorney general is not buying into it.
Much more at the link.

Sunday, February 4, 2018

Stockton, California, In The News Again -- February 4, 2018

During the previous (federal) administration I began a number of "Doomsday" chronicles -- there just seemed to be so many such stories coming out of the "Great Recession."

A number of cities during that period were having major financial problems (some of them still do). I tracked them under "Doomsday: US Cities." The first entry was dated February 4, 2010, and the first three cities: Chicago; Detroit, and Stockton (CA).
A judge accepted the California city of Stockton's bankruptcy application on Monday, making it the most populous city in the nation to enter bankruptcy. 
California's 13th largest city; more than a billion dollars in debt. Every city employee-retiree was given health (sic) for life and for one dependent. Will be the country's largest city to "successfully" enter bankruptcy.
Stockton, CA, is back in the news. Actually it isn't news. It was first reported a few weeks ago. I thought I had blogged about it but apparently not. But now, another link to the story tonight over at Drudge: California city to experiment with "universal basic income."
The mayor of Stockton, California, is leading an experiment with “universal basic income,” which is set to start by giving low-income residents $500 a month, no questions asked.
Mayor Michael Tubbs calls his city “ground zero” for issues like wage stagnation, rising housing prices and loss of middle-class jobs that affect the nation.
The Central Valley city went bankrupt in 2012, and for decades it has been trying to diversify its agriculture-based economy
I assume if you need "basic income" from the state you do not pay taxes of any kind but you still have full citizenship rights and privileges. I don't know if these families are required to give up food stamps; unemployment insurance; Medicaid, subsidized housing; WIC; SNAP; to name just a few perks.

It will be interesting if Mark Perry writes about this.

The Market And Energy Page, T+14 -- February 4, 2018

Exxon: the tea leaves suggest that Exxon has been behind the "8-ball" for quite some time. I first noted it when I suggested Exxon was "a day late and a dollar short" entering the Permian. First, they were way late getting into the Permian; second, they way overpaid; and third, there is some question about the quality of the play itself. Bloomberg says both Exxon and Chevron were late to the party.

Market pullback: If you thought you had buying opportunities on Friday, looking at Dow futures, it looks like Monday will be another day for opportunistic buying. Just saying.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, trading, travel, job, or relation-related decisions based on what you read here or what you think you may have read here. If this is important to you, go to the source.

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File Under: What Has CLR Been Doing For The Past Ten Years?

The date of this news item: October 18, 2017. Four months ago.

From NASDAQ.com a few months ago:

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The Apple Page

Apple Music now has 36 million subscribers, could eclipse Spotify in Unites States later this year. The 36 million is an increase from well over 30 million reported just a few months ago. Apple has confirmed that Apple Music is growing at a faster pace than Spotify in the US. On a worldwide scale, Spotify maintains a sizeable lead over Apple Music.

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Notes to the Granddaughters

Absolutely beautiful day here in north Texas; almost shirt-sleeve weather, and not a cloud int he skky.

But Sophia loves her umbrella.