Global market headlines: markets "dip" after North Korea tests its largest nuclear device to date. "Dips" is right. I don't think any Asian market of note dropped more than 0.75% but I could be wrong; I checked early; did not check the close.
Active rigs in North Dakota:
| $47.53→ | 9/4/2017 | 09/04/2016 | 09/04/2015 | 09/04/2014 | 09/04/2013 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Active Rigs | 56 | 33 | 75 | 196 | 188 |
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ExxonMobil To Invest $200 Million In Argentina's Vaca Muerta
Link here.
Attracting investment to the Belgium-sized Vaca Muerta play, one of the world's largest unconventional gas reserves, is a key priority for Macri's business-friendly administration as it seeks to boost local energy production in order to reduce costly imports.
Last year, Exxon said it could invest more than $10 billion in shale projects over 20 to 30 years in the region. In January, Macri reached a deal with unions and companies to lower very high labor costs and attract investment, though executives note that logistics costs remain high.
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Big Oil to be "usurped" by gas in less than a decade -- The [London] Telegraph.
One of the world’s biggest risk assurance experts in the global energy industry has predicted that gas will emerge as the world’s most important source of energy by the mid 2030s after a slow descent for oil which will peak within ten years and the ongoing decline of coal.
Remi Eriksen, the boss of Norway’s DNV GL, said the group’s first conservative prediction for the future of the global energy industry has revealed a boom in renewable energy which will meet around half the world’s needs – but gas will be the largest single source of energy for decades to come.
“Gas will overtake oil as the world’s biggest source of energy by 2034. By 2050 it will be the single biggest source at 27 percent of demand,” he said. He added that the demand for gas will tower over the use of individual renewable energy sources such as wind, hydro and solar power, although when totalled together renewable energy will make up 50pc of energy use.
“There will be oil and gas in the future, and there will need to be further exploration of our resources because the depletion of existing reserves will be faster than the drop in demand,” he said.
“But it will all depend on cost. The other factor is electric vehicles which by 2030 will really take a bit out of oil consumption from cars,” he added.
For the archives: "the number of coal powered cars has shot up to 2 million worldwide." The article does not say how many automobiles are currently in use worldwide. The number is 1.015 billion (US publisher Ward's estimate). Two million EVs represents 0.2% of all global automobiles.
Speaking of coal-powered cars, two articles from two contributors over at SeekingAlpha regarding Tesla.
- first, this contributor is bullish on Tesla;
- second, this contributor feels Tesla cannot meet its production goals.
The only reason I'm posting the first Tesla link is because it provides the data I was looking for (see below).
The second contributor seems a lot more credible.
I think we will know by the end of 2017, if not sooner, whether Musk Melon can meet his production goals for the Model 3. The other day I posted the EV sales data for August, 2017. Tesla delivered 30 Model 3 vehicles in July, 2017; and, 75 Model 3 vehicles in August.
What is the most current Tesla guidance for Model 3 production? According to the first linked SeekingAlpha article above, posted July 31, 2017:
- July, 2017: 30
- August, 2017: 100
- September, 2017:1,5000
- December, 2017: 20,000
So, did Tesla meet its August guidance? No. Tesla delivered 75% of what it said it would.
I don't know if Phil LeBeau mentioned that.
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The Real Cost For The Tesla Model 3
Tesla is marketing the Model 3 for "mainstream" drivers, for those who would otherwise buy the Honda Civic (around $30,000).
The contributor at the first Tesla link above, he who is bullish, provides the likely cost of the Model 3:
I expect a majority of Model 3 owners to, either at the time of initial purchase or later with an over-the-air software update, opt for the enhanced autopilot ($6,000 after delivery) and full self-driving (additional $4,000 after delivery) features. [$6,000 + $4,000 = $10,000].
The second major consideration is recognizing that customers prefer longer range. As happened with Model S, more than estimated percentage of potential Model 3 customers may opt for the long-range battery, which comes at an additional cost of $9,000.
I estimate that the split between the base model and long-range options will approximate 50:50, but readers should note that this is a very rough initial estimate that is subject to change as more data and management guidance become available.
Readers should also note that Tesla has prioritized the production of cars with long-range batteries in 2H17, which leads to a higher ASP estimate for 2H17 than in 2018.
Putting these two primary considerations together, I estimate that Model 3's ASP will approximate ~$55,000 in 2H17 and ~$47,000 in 2018.Again, this writer is bullish on Tesla.
Update - September 6, 2017. Full EV sales for August, 2017, have been posted:
