Wednesday, August 9, 2017

North Dakota Drought -- Governor Asks Federal Government To Declare Major Disaster -- August 9, 2017

From The Williston Herald:
Gov. Doug Burgum is asking President Donald Trump for a major disaster declaration for North Dakota counties affected by severe drought conditions that now cover most of the state.

If approved, the declaration would activate the Individual Assistance Program and make direct federal assistance available to 33 counties and one tribal nation, including Williams, Divide, Mountrail, Divide, Dunn, McKenzie and Billings County.

Other counties on Burgum’s list include Adams, Bottineau, Billings, Bowman, Burke, Burleigh, Dickey, Emmons, Golden Valley, Grant, Hettinger, Kidder, Lamoure, Logan, Mchenry, McIntosh, McLean, Mercer, Morton, Oliver, Pierce, Renville, Sioux and the Standing Rock Sioux Nation, Slope, Stark, Stutsman, Ward, and Wells counties.

Wishin' And Hopin' -- Theme Song For Mainstream Media -- August 9, 2017

In today's "fake news" department, "early season storms one indicator of an active hurricane season." Algore and mainstream media are wishin' and hopin' --

Wishin' and Hopin', Dusty Springfield

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This is absolutely one of my favorite songs -- depending on the moment, it may be my favorite song -- I prefer other singers, but how appropriate to have this one show up randomly tonight. Funny how things happen.

If You Go Away, Glen Campbell

One New Permit; Four DUCs Completed -- August 9, 2017

Active rigs:

$49.618/9/201708/09/201608/09/201508/09/201408/09/2013
Active Rigs573373193183

One new permit:
  • Operator: Abraxas
  • Field: North Fork (McKenzie)
  • Comments:
Four producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:
  • 30347, 1,250, CLR, Holstein Federal 9-25H1, Elm Tree, t7/17; cum --
  • 32750, 573, Enerplus, Everest 148-95-12D-01H, Eagle Nest, t7/17; cum --
  • 32751, 417, Enerplus, Denali 148-95-12D-01H-TF, Eagle Nest, t7/17; cum -- (#17975)
  • 33169, 2,067, Enerplus, Elbert 148-95-12D-01H-TF, Eagle Nest, t7/17; cum --

OMG! Stocks Sink! Investors Seek Safety In Gold, Bonds -- The Market And Energy Page -- T+201, August 9, 2017

Yes, that was the banner over at Yahoo!Finance, at the market close: "Stocks sink, as investors seek safety in gold and bonds."

Here's a screen shot of the headline after the close, screen shot taken at 3:09 p.m. Central Time, US markets closed.



So, how bad was the bloodbath?
  • Dow 30: down 0.17%. On a $1,000-investment across the entire Dow 30, one lost $1.70.
  • Nasdaq: down 0.28%. On a $1,000-investment across the entire Nasdaq, one lost $2.80.
Wow, not exactly a bloodbath. Hardly even a nick. I'm not sure it would even qualify as a bruise.

Maybe the anti-Trumpers were talking about the best gauge of the market, the S&P:
  • S&P 500: down 0.04%. On a $1,000-investment across the entire S&P 500, one lost 40 cents.
Could the banner be considered "fake news"?

Wow, this "fake news" really does get tiresome?

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US Natural Gas Exports

It is expected that the US becomes a net exporter of natural gas this year. Something tells me the anti-Trumpers business sites won't make a big deal out of this. Just a few years ago, the US was "frantically" building natgas import terminals: the EIA was forecasting a huge natgas deficit for the US. Now, the US is turning those import terminals into export terminals.

Two days ago it was noted that the Cove Point LNG export facility in Maryland was nearing completion and would begin export operations by the end of the year (2018).

The US will export about 80 million metric tons of LNG annually by 2020; Cove Point will provide about 5.25 million metric tons.

Here are the others:


A nice historical perspective can be found at this post based on an RBN Energy LNG export analysis, October 12, 2016

Another Huge Draw: US Commercial Crude Oil Inventories Decreased By 6.5 Million Bbls -- August 9, 2017

From the EIA's weekly petroleum report:
U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) decreased by 6.5 million barrels from the previous week. At 475.4 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are in the upper half of the average range for this time of year.
Total motor gasoline inventories increased by 3.4 million barrels last week, and are in the upper half of the average range. Both finished gasoline inventories and blending components inventories increased last week.
Distillate fuel inventories decreased by 1.7 million barrels last week but are in the upper half of the average range for this time of year. Propane/propylene inventories remained unchanged last week and are in the lower half of the average range. Total commercial petroleum inventories decreased by 4.6 million barrels last week.

My calculations (parameters previously described) suggest that at the average rate of decline over the past 15 weeks, it will take 35 weeks to "re-balance":

Week
Date
Drawdown
Storage
Weeks to RB
Week 0
Apr 26, 2017

529.0
180
Week 1
May 3, 2017
0.9
528.0
198
Week 2
May 10, 2017
6
522.0
50
Week 3
May 17, 2017
1.8
520.2
59
Week 4
May 24, 2017
4.4
515.8
51
Week 5
May 31, 2017
6.4
509.9
41
Week 6
June 7, 2017
-3.3
513.2
60
Week 7
June 14, 2017
1.7
511.5
57
Week 8
June 21, 2017
2.5
509.0
62
Week 9
June 28, 2017
-0.2
509.2
71
Week 10
July 6, 2017
6.3
502.9
58
Week 11
July 12, 2017
7.6
495.3
47
Week 12
July 19, 2017
4.7
490.6
43
Week 13
July 26, 2017
7.2
483.4
38
Week 14
August 2, 2017
1.5
481.9
37
Week 15
August 9, 2017
6.5
475.4
35

Other highlights:
  • US refinery throughput hit a record: 17.6 million b/d; an increase of 166,000 b/d compared with the prior week
  • US commercial crude stocks fell 6.5 million bbls to 475 million bbls; much faster than normal for this time of year
  • US commercial crude stocks exhibiting largest summer seasonal draw since 2014
  • US gasoline stocks now 5 million bbls below 2016 (a record year); the previous week the number was 11 million bbls below 2016 
  • John Kemp works hard at putting the Reuters spin on all this. From Kemp, via Twitter: US gasoline supplied averaged 9.8 million b/d last week which was just 28,000 b/d higher than 2016 (fails to mention that 2016 was a record year overall)
Bottom line: for bulls, the trend looks good but still a huge glut; comparing numbers ot 2016 is almost meaningless considering how far out of line 2016 was (in terms of glut); the 10-year average has been pulled up by the 2015 - 2017 glut, and it (the 10-year average) is also the wrong metric to follow, though it's really all we have without really changing the goalposts.