The Political Page, T+157 -- June 26, 2017

Updates

 
Later, 2:24 p.m. Central Time: wow, the mainstream media is hardly reporting this. And when they do report it, they release bits and pieces in dribs and drabs. This morning the US Supreme Court handed President Trump a huge victory, putting in place an injunction against the lower court ruling that tried to thwart the president's travel bans. That was barely reported. And had it not been for a Presidential tweet one would not know that the ruling was unanimous, 9 - 0, by the Supreme Court. Wow.

Later, 9:13 a.m. Central Time: a huge "hat tip" to Don who sent me the link: "the genius of Trump's tweets."

Google, Twitter and Facebook control much of the news we see today, but Trump’s tweets get around their dominance.

Similar to the Drudge Report website, Trump’s tweets are so well-known that people view his tweets independently of the tech giants.

The Drudge Report receives comparable traffic to Google News and The New York Times — despite the fact Google News prominently promotes the Times in search results and on its homepage.

Drudge isn’t even carried in Google News, since the site merely aggregates links to articles.

Google is the most trafficked site in the U.S. as well as in the world.

Most of the time, Google News is full of articles by the left-leaning media critical of Trump and conservatism.

But Trump’s tweets changed all that. Reporters race to report on his tweets, filling up Google News with articles that are far more favorable to Trump, since there is so little room left for spin with his tweets. A quick perusal of Google News right now reveals this headline near the top, “Trump accuses Clinton of colluding with Democrats to defeat ‘Crazy Bernie Sanders.’” The Washington Post article acknowledges, “Trump took to Twitter Sunday morning…”

There really is very little way to write the headline to make Trump look bad. There wasn’t any extra information to glean something from outside of one short tweet.

Original Post 

Huge presidential win: I almost missed this one. This is a huge win for the president but the way CNBC presented the story, I almost missed it. First, it should have been "breaking news" and it was not. Second, it came as part of a low-key segment from the milk-toast CNBC White House correspondent, who seemed to almost say in passing that the Supreme Court has issued an emergency injunction against lower court actions that tried to hamstring Trump's "travel bans."

Presidential tweets: I generally don't try to read too much into the president's tweets. For me, they are generally very straightforward and don't require a lot of analysis. However, one of the president's tweets this a.m. seems to have a very different message regarding ObamaCare -- a message very different than what he has had in the past.

Two issues:

• first: during the campaign, it was "repeal and replace" -- no compromise on this; it would happen "day 1"
• second: the legislative process has been very, very difficult; but the president continues to push the process along; as recently as last week, his tweets or public statements remained positive and he continued to make telephone calls to senators to get them to support the GOP plan

But, now today, it looks like he is coming around to what others in the GOP have said: just let ObamaCare run its natural course.

His tweet: 

Republican Senators are working very hard to get there, with no help from the Democrats. Not easy! Perhaps just let ObamaCare crash & burn!

For me, I have no idea why the GOP would want to sign off any national health care bill. It is a lose-lose.

By the way, as noted earlier, President Trump can easily weigh in on ObamaCare using executive orders. In fact, I am somewhat perplexed he did not do more along that line while waiting for Congress to get its act together.

The Energy And Market Page, T+157 -- June 26, 2017

Making America great again. BMW's largest factory in the world -- Spartanburg, SC. Capacity:

• 450,000 vehicles/year. Last year, about 411,000 vehicles. Just announced:
• $600 million new investment at Spartanburg between now and 2021
• 1,000 new hires
• will help BMW reach its target of 450,000 vehicles/year at this one factory
• CNBC was quick to point out that BWM planned this move even before Trump talked about BATs -- an unnecessary point in a business story, but an important point for a left-leaning network
• the Spartanburg facility is BMW's worldwide source for SUVs -- the Spartanburg facility is a big, big deal for everyone involved or interested in the story

Making America great again. German-based company will bring a $12 million aviation-related plant to Auburn, Alabama.

Winkelmann Group is a fourth-generation German company that has three divisions including automotive, building and industry, and flowforming, which is a metal-forming technique.

The Auburn site will use the company's flowform technology that primarily builds high-precision, high-strength, thin wall roto-symmetrical parts from various metals.

"With the North America operation, my team will be able to better serve the aerospace and defense industry, as well as the commercial automotive and oil and gas industry in the U.S.," CEO Heinrich Winkelmann said in the release.

Supply problem, or demand problem. The consensus seems to be that with regard to WTI / Brent, it's a "demand" problem, not a "supply" problem. I've bought into that consensus -- that it's a "demand" problem. On CNBC this morning, Kevin Caron of Washington Crossing clearly said it's a "demand" problem. Many moving parts. 

Understanding Permian Gas Takeaway Capacity at Waha Hub, Part 2 -- RBN Energy -- June 26, 2017

Active rigs:

$43.23	6/26/2017	06/26/2016	06/26/2015	06/26/2014	06/26/2013
Active Rigs	58	30	75	192	187

RBN Energy: Understanding Permian Gas Takeaway Capacity at Waha Hub, Part 2.

Permian natural gas production has climbed 1.75 Bcf/d, or nearly 40%, in the past three years to more than 6.3 Bcf/d in 2017 to date, and it’s poised to grow to nearly 12 Bcf/d over the next five years. Note that’s a “dry” or “residue” gas number; gross gas production is a couple of Bcf/d higher. As Permian production growth occurs, pipeline takeaway capacity from the primary trading hub in the area — the Waha Hub — will become increasingly constrained, a trend that will drive pricing and flow dynamics into the early 2020s. How full are the takeaway pipelines now and how quickly will constraints emerge? Today we continue our series on the Waha Hub with a look at current takeaway capacity and flows from the hub.

A reminder, the Waha hub, from an earlier RBN Energy post:

The Waha Hub is situated in northern Pecos County in West Texas near Fort Stockton — about 260 miles east of El Paso. Geologically speaking, the hub sits atop the Permian’s Southern Delaware Basin, an oil-rich part of the larger play. Like any good, liquid trading hub worth its salt, Waha is well connected, with ample receipt, delivery and takeaway capacities. The Waha Hub comprises interconnects with more than a dozen takeaway pipelines, including four major interstate pipelines and nine Texas intrastate pipelines, together totaling more than 10 Bcf/d of takeaway capacity. This capacity is all the more important given that there is little demand near the hub itself — less than 250 MMcf/d, on average — which makes Waha primarily a transit hub.

The EQT - Rice Energy Deal -- Human Interest Story -- June 25, 2017

The update is at this link; worth a read.

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A Japanese Spaghetti Western

To make a very long story very short, I happened to come across a Japanese comedy, Tampopo. I knew nothing about the movie before watching it except that it was about Japanese food and Japanese culture surrounding food.

About a third of the way through I realized that had this been an American film, the lead actor and actress would have been John Wayne and Katherine Hepburn.

After the movie, I googled "Tampopo wiki" and this is what I found:

Tampopo (literally "dandelion") is a 1985 Japanese comedy film by director Juzo Itami, starring Tsutomu Yamazaki, Nobuko Miyamoto, Kōji Yakusho, and Ken Watanabe. The publicity for the film calls it the first "ramen western", a play on the term Spaghetti Western (films about the American Old West made by Italian production studios).

And, yes, John Wayne, not Clint Eastwood. 

Reason #35 Why I Love To Blog -- The Groningen Is Back In The News -- June 25, 2017

Updates

June 26, 2017: Study: Fracing, saltwater disposal have limited seismic impact. From Oil & Gas Journal:

Research from a University of Alberta geophysicist suggests hydraulic fracturing and saltwater disposal have limited impact on seismic events.

A team of researchers led by Mirko Van der Baan found no state- or province-wide correlation between increased hydrocarbon production and seismicity after reviewing 30-50 years of earthquake rates from US states North Dakota, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Texas, West Virginia, and Canadian provinces Alberta, British Columbia, and Saskatchewan.

They also discovered that human-induced seismicity is less likely in areas where fewer natural earthquakes occur. The lone exception was Oklahoma, where seismicity rates have changed dramatically in the last 5 years, with strong correlation to saltwater disposal related to increased hydrocarbon production.

They need to study the Groningen. LOL.

Original Post 

Had I not blogged, I doubt I ever would have ever even known about the Groningen. But here it is again, in the WSJ, and another reason why I love to blog.

For decades, the giant Groningen gas field beneath the flat, green farmland in the north of this country counted among the greatest prizes for Exxon Mobil Corp. XOM 0.65% and Royal Dutch Shell RDS.B 0.43% PLC.

Then the earthquakes started.

The exploitation of Groningen—the biggest gas field in Europe—has been causing tremors for over two decades, rattling a bucolic province with no previous history of quakes and exposing two of the world’s biggest energy companies to a criminal probe and rising reconstruction bills.

Amid a public outcry, the Dutch government has imposed increasingly strict limits that have more than halved Groningen’s gas production since 2013. Now, authorities are proposing another 10% cut in hopes of further reducing earthquakes. And a Dutch public prosecutor is preparing to open a criminal investigation into responsibility for the earthquakes.

Groningen was expected to be one of the world’s largest gas producers for decades to come. Last year, it made up almost 10% of both Exxon and Shell’s total gas production globally and its reserves are among the companies’ largest undeveloped resources.

Again, as usual, the comments are most interesting, though somewhat disappointing considering this is in the WSJ.