More Roundabouts For Williston -- February 19, 2017

From The Williston Herald:

A plan for road improvements in the Williston area calls for as many as 13 roundabouts, mostly in the western and northern parts of the city.

The plan, which was unanimously recommended by both the Williston and Williams County planning and zoning boards Thursday night ...

The transportation plan lists more than 30 projects that may be needed between 2016 and 2030.

In all, the short-term projects add up to nearly 36 miles of road and a cost of more than $350 million.

Much more at the link. 

In my experience, there are few intersections that are better served by traffic lights than round-abouts or "circles." Very few intersections. In addition, round-abouts are considerably less expensive. In fact, it's hard to even compare the price of one with the other. 

*****************************

Trout Dinner 

EURs -- Bakken 2.0 -- February 19, 2017

For an explanation of this table, go back to this post.

Disclaimer: this data in this table has not been quadruple-checked nor certified by outside agencies. In a long spreadsheet and a long note like this, there are bound to be typographical and factual errors. In addition, the data in column 5 of the table below (EURs) was taken from graphs which in some cases were hard to read. The data could be very, very incorrect. If this is important to you, go to the source which is linked above. 

A random look at the EURs of recent Whiting wells in the Bakken. In the early days we were talking about EURs of 300,000 and getting excited about EURs of 500,000. Then Mike Filloon started noting EURs of 1.5 million and there was even talk of some wells with EURs of 2 million bbls of oil.

Again, just a random look at the EURs of recent Whiting wells in the Bakken. There are fourteen Whiting wells in this list, arranged by EURs, in descending order. The Carscallen well at the top has a EUR of 2 million bbls of oil. The Rolla Federal well at the bottom has an EUR of 1.5 million:

Group Description	Group	Permit	Well	EUR (1,000’s)	Sand (lbs)	Field	County
	N	32340	Carscallen 31-14-4H	2000	10 million +	Truax	WMS
	O	32338	Carscallen 31-14H	1700	5 million +	Truax	WMS
	O	32368	Carscallen 31-14-2H	1700	5 million +	Truax	WMS
Rolla Federal Group A	Q	31712	Rolla Federal 21-3-1H	1700	7 - 15 million	Twin Valley	MCK
Rolla Federal Group A	Q	31710	Rolla Federal 21-3-1TFH	1700	7 - 15 million	Twin Valley	MCK
Rolla Federal Group B	R	31711	Rolla Federal 21-3-2TFH	1700	7 - 15 million	Twin Valley	MCK
Rolla Federal Group B	R	32329	Rolla Federal 11-3-1TFHU	1700	7 - 15 million	Twin Valley	MCK
Rolla Federal Group B	R	31715	Rolla Federal 21-3-3TFH	1600	7 - 15 million	Twin Valley	MCK
Rolla Federal Group B	R	32326	Rolla Federal 11-3-1H	1600	7 - 15 million	Twin Valley	MCK
Banks Field	T	32764	Chameleon State 31-16HU	1600	7 - 15 million	Banks	MCK
	N	29693	P Bibler 155-99-16-31-30-1H	1500	10 million +	Epping	WMS
Rolla Federal Group A	Q	31706	Rolla Federal 31-3-3TFH	1500	7 - 15 million	Twin Valley	MCK
Rolla Federal Group B	R	32328	Rolla Federal 11-3-2TFH	1500	7 - 15 million	Twin Valley	MCK
Rolla Federal Group B	R	31705	Rolla Federal 31-3-2TFH	1500	7 - 15 million	Twin Valley	MCK

***************************

The Book Page

The Art of Beatrix Potter: Sketches, Paintings, and Illustrations by Emily Zach, Steven Heller (Foreword by), Linda Lear (Introduction), Eleanor Taylor (Afterword), c. 2016. I don't find it at Amazon.com. At the big box store, it's priced at $40 (of course, less expensive for members and those with coupons) but through B&N on-line, $26 and free shipping.

Turner: The Extraordinary Life and Momentous Times of J. M. W. Turner, Fanny Moyle, c. 2016.

Quantum Fuzz: The Strange True Makeup of Everything Around Us, Michael S. Walker, c. 2016.

The Ancestor's Tale: A Pilgrimage to the Dawn of Evolution, Richard Dawkins and Yan Wong, c. 2016. 

The book I would like to see: DAPL: Letting Things Play Out. In fact, there could be a series of "Letting Things Play Out" just like the book series for "dummies." Other examples of letting things play out: Baltimore riots; Benghazi; and, the emergence of ISIS.

*********************************

Dreamliner

From Quantum Fizz, linked above, p. 318:

Boeing Company may have staked its future on carbon-fiber-reinforced polymer (CFRP) technology in developing its model 787 Dreamliner, the most advanced new generation in commercial aircraft ...

Following test performed earlier in relation to military aircraft design, wings and fuselage are no longer made from sheets of aluminum but instead use CFRPs to from a super-strong lightweight component...

... Boeing has been able to improve range and fuel efficiency (by 20 percent) without increasing the size of the aircraft, bucking the historical trend. 

The longest-range variant of the 787 can fly over 9,000 miles (from NYC to Hong Kong) without refueling.

As of March, 2016, Boeing had orders for 1,139 aircraft from 62 customers.
But this is a competitive world. Responding to the threat that the Dreamliner posed to its business, Airbus in January, 2015, introduced its A350, an aircraft of comparable capacity that is made of 53% of composite structures, as opposed to Boeing's 50%. 

Variants of the two aircraft seat 225 to 350 passengers at a cost per aircraft ranging from $225 million to $356 million.

Now look at all the aircraft flying at any given moment, and imagine that all these aluminum behemoths are now made with 50% less aluminum. No wonder Alcoa split off its smelting and refining businesses.

Nice Bump In Production In Two Whiting Chameleon Wells After Being Shut In For Less Than Two Months -- February 19, 2017

Nice bump in production after being off-line for less than two months:

• 22621, 1,561, Whiting, Chameleon State 153-97-16-21-2H, Banks, t7/12; cum 122K 12/16; 

A update regarding this data is found at this post.

Monthly Production Data:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	12-2016	31	8287	8321	10044	26469	10233	16143
BAKKEN	11-2016	30	8796	8783	12339	28131	11721	16320
BAKKEN	10-2016	10	3755	3707	11821	8657	3520	5108
BAKKEN	9-2016	5	127	432	165	625	610	0
BAKKEN	8-2016	31	826	669	1000	3953	3830	30
BAKKEN	7-2016	31	818	889	1107	3603	3502	8
BAKKEN	6-2016	30	868	886	1326	3974	3876	8
BAKKEN	5-2016	31	910	897	1259	4510	3723	694
BAKKEN	4-2016	30	958	912	1063	4853	4328	437
BAKKEN	3-2016	30	1456	1594	1759	6257	6110	57
BAKKEN	2-2016	28	1210	1360	630	3615	3508	23
BAKKEN	1-2016	31	806	469	322	2136	1939	104

Nice bump in production after being off-line for less than two months:

• 19859, 1,102, Whiting, Chameleon State 153-97-16-21-1H, Banks, t7/12; cum 145K 12/16; 

Monthly Production Data:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	12-2016	31	6115	6141	7397	19521	7538	11890
BAKKEN	11-2016	30	6491	6479	9087	20744	8633	12021
BAKKEN	10-2016	11	2148	2171	12955	12653	4839	7781
BAKKEN	9-2016	5	273	454	150	1152	1137	0
BAKKEN	8-2016	31	1699	1577	1134	5942	5830	19
BAKKEN	7-2016	31	1846	2004	1309	6759	6658	8
BAKKEN	6-2016	30	1926	2031	1432	6895	6759	46
BAKKEN	5-2016	30	2249	2261	1847	6804	5454	1261

The Market And Energy Page, T+30, February 19, 2017

Hard to believe it's been just 30 days since Donald J. Trump sworn in as president. I took a quick look at the front page of today's New York Times: the headline story was a congratulatory essay on all his successes in his first 30 days. Just kidding.

I'm still wading through the SeekingAlpha story on Whiting's wells in North Dakota. It would take a month of Sundays to do a really good job going through that analysis but hopefully we can have some fun with it. As "exhaustive" as that analysis was, I do think there are aspects of Bakken 2.0 that were not discussed, or at least not discussed in depth. It looks like the players to watch in the Bakken right now are Marathon, Oasis, and Whiting.

The other day I posted a link to this Rigzone story: can other basins ever catch up to the Permian's prosperity? I did not see much written about "prosperity" in the Permian in that article. I think the headline writer was looking for some alliteration. What I saw in the article was a lot of talk about "future activity." I don't understand why this is so surprising. Folks have to remember two things:

• after paying upwards of $50,000 / mineral acre, public companies better start showing some kind of return on that investment; and,
• they better start drilling if they want to "hold their leases by production"

This is exactly what was seen in the early days of the Bakken Boom, Bakken 1.0.

Blogging about the Bakken has taught me a lot. Perhaps the biggest lesson: don't invest in common shares in US shale oil companies. LOL.

But back to the linked article. "Upwards of $50,000 / mineral acre"? From the article:

Data from East Daley shows that acquisition prices in the Permian have returned to – and in some cases, exceeded – prices during the height of the shale revolution. Four Permian deals averaged roughly $29,000 per acre in 2014. While most of 2017 is still at hand, deals within the last year have exceeded $40,000 per acre. And in more recent months, M&A is still trending close to $30,000, according to East Daley’s data.

Recent deals in the Eagle Ford were priced close to $16,000 per acre, but in October, RSP Permian bought Permian acreage in the Delaware region for an estimated $48,000 per acre. And prices could go higher, said Darin Turner, Invesco Ltd. managing directorand portfolio manager.

“I could see somebody paying above that,” Turner said. “That can be very location specific [within the Permian], but we wouldn’t be that surprised to see a higher land cost.” 

Bad news for Saudi: of the major US shale oil plays, the biggest may be the Permian and operators can make money on $30-oil in the Permian. Saudi will go broke at $50 oil and only recently came out with a new budget based on $80-oil after years of a budget based on $100-oil. 

February 19, 2017 -- Active Rigs At 40

Active rigs:

	2/19/2017	02/19/2016	02/19/2015	02/19/2014	02/19/2013
Active Rigs	40	38	127	186	182

Prediction: A reader predicts 50 active rigs before summer.