Thursday, May 26, 2016

Brent Oil Hits $50 -- May 26, 2016; XOM, CVX Shareholders Vote "NO" On Liquidating Their Companies

Brent is above $50/bbl. Headline over at Yahoo!Finance early this morning. Let's see what the number is at the opening bell: the "WTI crawler" is $49.96, up 0.81%.

XOM, CVX shareholders vote "no" on liquidating their companies. I can't make this stuff up. Bloomberg/Rigzone is reporting:
Big Oil investors voted to continue doing the thing that has defined the industry since the 19th century: drilling for crude.
Shareholders of Exxon Mobil Corp. and Chevron Corp. overwhelmingly rejected resolutions backed by environmental activists on Wednesday that would have curtailed exploration for new oil fields and funneled the money to investors in the form of higher dividends and share buybacks.
At Chevron’s gathering in San Ramon, California, holders rejected the anti-drilling measure for a second straight year. Chairman and CEO John Watson decried the proposal, saying it “suggests we liquidate the company by paying dividends. Of course, we don’t think that is the proper action to take.”
Job watch:
  • dropped 10,000, to 268,000
  • four-week average: increased to 278,500
The four-week average increasing is interesting; the weekly numbers have shown significant decreases the past two weeks.

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Back To The Bakken

Active rigs:


5/26/201605/26/201505/26/201405/26/201305/26/2012
Active Rigs2984191186214

RBN Energy: Tallgrass' winning strategy for the Rockies Express (REX).
When the Rockies Express (REX) Pipeline was being planned and built a few years ago, no one could have predicted that the natural gas-hungry Northeast REX was developed to serve would soon become a gas-production behemoth able to meet its own needs and have plenty of gas left over. But that’s just what happened, and in response, REX’s owners developed a revised strategy that deals with the reality of Marcellus/Utica production growth by making more and more of REX bi-directional. Now, Tallgrass Energy Partners (TEP), a master limited partnership (MLP), has acquired a 25% interest in REX from Sempra, joining existing co-owners Tallgrass Development (an affiliate with a 50% stake in REX) and Phillips 66 (with a 25% stake), and has laid out a long-term vision for maintaining—and even increasing—REX’s relevance in a still-changing energy world. Today, we consider TEP’s $1.08 billion investment in REX, and the steps that the pipeline’s co-owners are taking to bolster REX’s future.
First an important disclaimer.  We are not an investment advisor.  The purpose of this blog is not investment advice or endorsement.  RBN looks at individual company information to see what the data means for the market as a whole, not for the implications for any particular company’s stock.   You should not rely on anything you read here as the basis for any decision or conclusion regarding TEP or any other security.
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State-By-State GDP

US 1Q16 GDP grew at a dismal 0.5% pace -- their words, not mine.

However, like politics, one might say that "all" economies are local.
The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia has released coincident indexes for the 50 states, which captures the three-month change in economic activity through April 2016.  This is the seasonally adjusted indicator series for each state’s payroll employment, unemployment rate, average hours worked in manufacturing, and wage and salary disbursements.
According to the release, the indexes increased in 39 states, decreased in seven, and remained stable in four.
The states with decreases include North Dakota, Oklahoma, Wyoming, Louisiana, Iowa and Pennsylvania. All share exposure to the oil and gas industry, which has struggled due to low prices.
Texas, while exposed heavily to the energy industry, saw activity increase. Comments recently made by Home Depot’s Chairman and CEO Craig Menear may explain.
If Hillary is elected president, and she is successful in her goal to ban fracking, the GDP story is going to look a lot worse, especially in the swing states of Ohio and Pennsylvania where a lot of fracking is done.


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North Unit 

Video of the "North Unit" taken by our younger daughter during her/her husband's recent trip to North Dakota.

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Can Never Get Enough Of This Song

Directions, Billy Currington

Wednesday, May 25, 2016

Agenda For NDIC's June, 2016, Hearing Dockets

I track the dockets here.

The NDIC index for the agendas for the hearing dockets is here.
Wednesday, June 22, 2016
25068, Cornerstone Natural Resources, Clayton-Bakken, proper spacing, Burke County
25069, Oasis, Tyrone-Lodgepole, redefine field limits, Williams
25070, MRO, McGregory Buttes-Bakken, to grant relief from those portions of Order #26323, 27290, and any other applicable orders which require additional wells to be drilled upon certain drilling units within the FBIR, Dunn County
25071, BR, Dimmick Lake-Bakken, establish a stand-up 2560-acre unit; 13 wells; McKenzie County
25072, BR, revoking or imposing conditions upon the permits for a SWD, McKenzie
25073, Hess, Truax-Bakken, establish two overlapping 2560-acre units, one well on each; and two wells on a third 2560-acre unit, Williams County;
25074, Hess, Blue Buttes and/or Hawkeye-Bakken, establish an overlapping 2560-acre unit; 1 well; McKenzie
25075, QEP, Spotted Horn-Bakken, reduce minimum setbacks, McKenzie County
25076, QEP, Spotted Horn-Bakken, to allow a second bench Three Forks (TF2) well, for an overlapping spacing unit, McKenzie County
25077, QEP, Blue Buttes-Bakken, exception to rule to allow lateral outside the 500-foot corridor, Mckenzie
25078, Bakken Investments II, Big Butte-Bakken, to allow an injectivity test utilizing the EN Person Observation 11-22 well (file # 20315); Mountrail County
25079, Hess, pooling,
25080, Hess, Blue Buttes-Bakken, 11 wells on an existing 1280-acre unit, McKenzie County
25081, BR, pooling, 
Thursday, June 23, 2016
 
25082, RIM Operating, Rennie Lake-Bakken, proper spacing, Burke County;
25083, Emerald, Sheep Butte-Bakken, proper spacing, McKenzie County;
25084, NDIC/CLR, to consider the termination of the Tracy Mountain-Tyler Unit, Billings County
25085, NDIC/CLR, Tracy Mountain field, to review the temporarily abandoned status of CLR Ardene Well 14-8, #13408, Billings County
25086, NDIC/CLR, Tracy Mountain field, to review the temporarily abandoned status of CLR Tracy Mountain Federal Well 2-9, #14609, Billings County
25087, CLR, Elm Tree-Bakken, 1) establish an overlapping 1920-acre unit; 1 well; ii) locating a well within 330 from the east line of a drilling unit; McKenzie
25088, CLR, Elm Tree-Bakken, establish three overlapping 2560-acre units, 2 wells on each; McKenzie, Mountrail Counties
25089, CLR, Sanish-Bakken, establish a 2560-acre unit, 1 well; McKenzie, Mountrail Counties
25090, CLR, Antelope-Sanish Pool, i) establish two overlapping 1280-acre units, 1 well each; ii) 2 wells between existing drilling units; iiii) establish an overlapping 2560-acre unit, 2 wells, McKenzie County
25091, NDIC, review the authorization and permit for Evergreen Mud Recycling LLC to operate a mobile treating plant within the state of ND
25092, Liberty Resources, legalese to recover from a named individual, Williams County
25093, Steffes, location of an indirect heating system in producing locations in ND
25094, Enerplus, pooling,
25095, EOG, pooling,
25096, Liberty Reources, pooling,
25097, Liberty Reources, pooling,
25098, Liberty Resources, pooling,
25099, Sinclair Oil, risk penalty legalese,
25100, Newfield, flaring,
25101, Newfiled, flaring,
25102, Newfield, flaring,
25103, Newfield, flaring,
25104, Newfield, flaring, 
25105, Newfield, flaring,
25106, Newfield, flaring,
25107, Newfield, flaring,
25108, Newfield, flaring,
25109, Newfield, flaring,
25110, CLR, Sanish-Bakken, 13 wells on an existing 1280-acre unit (4/5-152-93), McKenzie, Mountrail Counties
25111, CLR, commingling
25112, Enduro, SWD


Zavanna Reports A High-IP Bakken Well -- May 25, 2016

Note: the agenda for the NDIC, June, 2016, dockets has been posted. Link here

Active rigs:


5/25/201605/25/201505/25/201405/25/201305/25/2012
Active Rigs2883191186215

One well coming off confidential list Thursday:
  • 32224, SI/NC, Hess, EN-Ruud-LE-154-93-2735H-2, Robinson Lake, no production data,
No new permits.

One producing well completed:
  • 28886, 2,342, Zavanna, Gust 2-11 2H, stimulated 8/15; 50 stages, 58 million lbs; Long Creek, t5/16; cum --; a sundry form received April 19, 2016, says the company will cap this well, temporarily; and, produce the well once commodity prices improve; an earlier sundry form shows this well stimulated in August, 2015, but the file report shows it was tested in May, 2016
And that was all.

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 Reconsider Me

Due to time constraints I cannot blog much today; I apologize.

With the November, 2016, election likely to pit Hillary Clinton against Donald Trump -- who would have ever thought -- I can only assume that Bill Clinton, George W. Bush, and Barack Obama have uploaded this to the iTunes play list:

Reconsider Me, Narvel Felts

Minimal Blogging Today -- Traveling In Local Area -- May 25, 2016

Note: the agenda for the NDIC, June, 2016, dockets has been posted. Link here

Original Post
 
All oil refineries in France now shut down -- so what's this all about? Due to strikes.
France's oil refineries are on strike Tuesday with all eight of the country's refineries out of action.
Five of the refineries are controlled by Total and two by Esso. 
The Total CEO was reported as saying that the oil and gas company will "seriously reconsider" investments in France due to the strikes that have forced it to shut down its refineries.
The strikes will put France's "full 1.4 mbd (million barrels per day) of capacity potentially at risk."
Impact?
The strike has resulted in over 2,000 gas stations running dry across France, with drivers lining up for hours to fill their cars. 
Why?
Union workers are protesting against labor reform laws passed this month by President Francois Hollande's government aimed at reforming the country's notoriously inflexible workers' rights – including making changes to the 35-hour work week and making it easier for small businesses to hire and fire employees.
Saudi Aramco probably won't be expanding any time soon in France. 

OPEC's Ability To Ease An Oil Supply Shock Is Now Fading -- Saudi Oil Spokesman -- May 25, 2016

Active rigs:


5/25/201605/25/201505/25/201405/25/201305/25/2012
Active Rigs2883191186215

RBN Energy: market impact of 2016 northeast natural gas demand.

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Is The Conversation Changing With Saudi Aramco IPO On The Horizon?

OPEC’s Ability to Ease An Oil Supply Shock is Now Fading. Spare production capacity set to hit 8-year low, creating an unexpected risk as supply outages eat into the glut -- WSJ
This year, OPEC’s spare pumping capacity—the amount it can bring online within 30 days and sustain for at least 90—will be at its lowest level since 2008, the U.S. Energy Information Administration estimates. It said OPEC spare capacity will decline more than 22% in the current quarter compared with the previous quarter.
Since last year, OPEC members haven’t been able to agree on supply cuts to stem a glut that drove prices down by more than 50% since 2014. Instead they kept pumping full blast. The result: With recent supply outages sending the oil price back up, the cartel has little flexibility to boost production.
OPEC is irrelevant. What are the Saudi numbers?
Saudi officials have long said they can boost production by about 2 million barrels a day over today’s record daily production of 10.2 million barrels. But that 2 million barrels might not be possible in short order, a Saudi oil industry official said.
“If there was a big crisis tomorrow, then the maximum Saudi Arabia can do would be around 500,000, maybe 700,000 maximum,” the official said.
Now that Saudi Aramco is getting ready to complete an IPO, the discussion seems to be changing.  

Other than all-out war in the Mideast, I do not see any chance of "an unexpected risk" of shortage of oil, and even when there have been some huge wars in the Mideast, I do not recall any shortage associated with these conflicts.

Meanwhile, over at oilprice.com, "OPEC head calls for $65 oil." Sixty-five-dollar oil will let the Bakken thrive; won't do much for Venezuela or Saudi Arabia.

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US Trap Laid For Taliban Chief Highly Successful

From The WSJ. Front page. Huge story. Many story lines.

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Chevron To Make Oil Investment Overseas

CVX to make huge investment in Kazakh oil field. Also in The WSJ.
ASTANA, Kazakhstan—A Chevron Corp.-led consortium is set to invest up to $37 billion as it increases output at a giant oil field in Kazakhstan.
The investment represents a rare big commitment by a large oil company to spend on new production during a nearly two-year long slump in crude prices. Companies have been forced to delay or cancel about $270 billion in projects through March since oil prices began their long slide including expensive Arctic developments.
The Kazakh project, called Tengiz, is one of the world’s biggest oil fields and a key source for Chevron’s growth in crude output in the next few years.
Note the byline of that last story: Astana, Kazakhstan. From the blog last year:
By the way, speaking of Kazakhstan, this is from an October, 2014, press release:
The North Dakota Trade Office (NDTO), along with North Dakota agriculture machinery and technology companies, are returning to the KazAgro Farm Show October 27-29, 2014, in Astana, Kazakhstan.  This year, the Ministry of Agriculture of the Republic of Kazakhstan – the main sponsor of the show – has invited NDTO to co-sponsor the program, because of North Dakota’s long-standing relationship with leaders in the Kazakh agriculture sector.
Wow, I love to blog.