Wednesday, October 14, 2015

Wednesday, October 14, 2015 -- Part III; Trainwreck; The Road To New England

High Voltage Transmission Lines From Canada? 
CBR? Pipelines? New England Has It All

New England looks to Canada for more power. The Wall Street Journal is reporting:
New England’s most populous states are looking to tap Canadian dams and rivers for more of their electricity, a change that officials say would help cut greenhouse-gas emissions and help keep some of the nation’s highest power prices in check.

Canada, with plenty of water and just 35 million people, gets 63% of its power supply from hydroelectric dams, and is adding more with an eye on exports. Getting that power to New England is no easy task—one power-line proposal in New Hampshire has drawn criticism from locals—but policy makers in the region have long been tantalized by the prospect of plentiful, cheap Canadian power.

Massachusetts and Connecticut, home to most of New England’s population and power demand, could add enough new hydropower to supply millions of people through efforts under way in each state. Entergy Corp. threw those efforts into sharp relief Tuesday when it announced plans to shut its Pilgrim nuclear plant in Massachusetts by mid-2019 due to high operating costs and poor market conditions.

The shutdown “not only poses a potential energy shortage, but also highlights the need for clean, reliable, affordable energy proposals,” Massachusetts Gov. Charlie Baker, a first-term Republican, said in a statement. He cited a need for hydropower and renewable resources like wind and solar power.
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And Americans No Longer Care;
They've Moved On

ObamaCare bear market. The Wall Street Journal is reporting:
By liberal and media acclamation, ObamaCare is a glorious success, the political opposition is fading and the entitlement state has gained another permanent annex. The reality, for anyone who cares to look, is different and suggests that ObamaCare is far more vulnerable than this conventional wisdom.
As Exhibit A, note that participation on the federal and state insurance exchanges is badly trailing the original projections and declining over time. About 11.7 million people joined ObamaCare during the open sign-up period last year. But enrollment this summer slipped 15% to 9.9 million with “effectuated” coverage, meaning enrollees who were up to date on their nominal share of the premium after subsidies.
Some churn is inevitable, but the Congressional Budget Office estimated two years ago that some 13 million would participate in 2015, and its most recent revision in March of this year still pegged the figure at 11 million. The CBO nonetheless now projects ObamaCare will more than double in size in 2016 to 21 million, and such a growth spurt is probably necessary to stabilize the insurance markets.
But don’t count on the attrition problem going away given ObamaCare’s high and rising costs, as well as its low quality that is approaching Medicaid levels of coverage. The plans simply don’t offer good value for the money. [I've said from the beginning that ObamaCare is simply high-priced catastrophic health insurance.]
In a new working paper, Wharton economists Mark Pauly, Adam Levine and Scott Harrington estimate how much better or worse off the non-poor uninsured are under ObamaCare. They measure the cost of the plans, the benefits of consuming pre-paid medical care and out-of-pocket payments without obtaining coverage. They conclude that, “even under the most optimistic assumptions,” half of the formerly uninsured take on both a higher financial burden and lower welfare, and on net “average welfare for the uninsured population would be estimated to decline after the ACA if all members of that population obtained coverage.”
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6,000 Felons Head Back To Ferguson 

Just what Ferguson needs: 6,000 more felons: The Wall Street Journal is reporting on Obama’s Tragic Legacy for Black Americans -- adding to harmful policies on school vouchers and the minimum wage: a plan to free 6,000 federal inmates.
As Kanye West might say, I’m starting to wonder if the president much cares about the well-being of poor blacks.
Mr. West was remarking on the George W. Bush administration’s response to Hurricane Katrina, a natural disaster, but the current administration seems keen on facilitating man-made varieties.
At the urging of labor unions, President Obama has pushed for higher minimum wages that price a disproportionate percentage of blacks out of the labor force.
At the urging of teachers unions, he has fought voucher programs that give ghetto children access to better schools. Both policies have a lengthy track record of keeping millions of blacks ill-educated and unemployed. Since the 1970s, when the federal government began tracking the racial achievement gap, black test scores in math, reading and science have on average trailed far behind those of their white classmates. And minimum-wage mandates have been so effective for so long at keeping blacks out of work that 1930, the last year in which there was no federal minimum-wage law, was also the last year that the black unemployment rate was lower than the white rate. For the past half-century, black joblessness on average has been double that of whites.

Last week the Justice Department said it would release some 6,000 inmates from federal prison starting later this month. The goal, according to the White House, is to ease overcrowding and roll back tough sentencing rules implemented in the 1980s and ’90s. But why are the administration’s sympathies with the lawbreakers instead of their usual victims—the mostly law-abiding residents in low-income communities where many of these inmates eventually are headed? In dozens of large U.S. cities, violent crime, including murder, has climbed over the past year, and it is hard to see how these changes are in the interest of public safety.
I love the euphemism: "inmates from federal prison." Inmates? These are felons. To make this work, President Obama needed to grant all 6,000 a pardon, and expunge from their records any history of prison. As long as they are felons, they won't be getting any jobs.

President Obama has cleverly transferred the onus of support for 6,000 felons from the federal government to the states, to all the "Fergusons" across the country. 

Wednesday, October 14, 2015 -- Part II; North Dakota Poised To Thrive -- Forbes

Forbes: North Dakota is still poised to thrive
Perhaps no state benefited more from the energy boom than North Dakota. Long known more for its harsh weather, low population and featureless expanses than for anything positive, the massive deposits on the Bakken formation turned the state into the No. 2 energy producer in the country, trailing only Texas. The prairie state gained 45,000 energy jobs between 2007 and 2014. Now the decline in oil prices promises to eliminate quite a few of them.

But few North Dakotans seem to believe that the energy bust will turn the state once again into a poster child for stagnation. For one thing, North Dakota’s job base has also expanded well beyond oil, with a net growth of 155,000 jobs jobs from 2007 to 2014 — no small beer in a state with a population of 739,000. This growth started well before the oil boom, with employment surging by 50,000 jobs between 2000 and 2007. 
Transportation, logistics, wholesale trade and construction are among the industries that have added jobs, and the state’s technology industry has surged, doubling employment since 2009. The state’s engineer count has expanded 41% since 2009, almost seven times the national increase. Fargo, the state’s largest city but hundreds of miles from the Bakken, has thrived in large part due to the expansion in tech and business services. Overall Fargo has 38% more jobs than in 2000.
Transportation, logistics, wholesale trade and construction are among the industries that have added jobs, and the state’s technology industry has surged, doubling employment since 2009. The state’s engineer count has expanded 41% since 2009, almost seven times the national increase. Fargo, the state’s largest city but hundreds of miles from the Bakken, has thrived in large part due to the expansion in tech and business services. Overall Fargo has 38% more jobs than in 2000.
In the coming years, other industries may help pick up the slack from energy. One prime candidate is aerospace, where North Dakota is touting itself as the “Silicon Valley of drones,” an outgrowth of the conversion of the Grand Forks Airforce Base from launching bombers and tankers to drones. The country’s first drone-only business park is being built on an unused portion of the base. Other industries on the upswing include biomedicine and wind turbine parts.
By the way, did you all notice that the article in Forbes mentioned the Poppers and the "buffalo commons? I've talked about the Poppers and the "buffalo commons" many times on the blog. It's hard to believe the Forbes reference was coincidental. Hoo-ah!



Crude oil prices for 2016, Fitch Ratings report:
States like Texas and Oklahoma that rely on oil and gas development to boost their revenues could struggle to grow their economies in 2016 as crude prices have remained stubbornly weak, according to a Fitch Ratings report released Tuesday.
Fitch said most of these state budgets include price forecasts for crude in 2016 that aren’t supported by a much-watched federal government projection for next year.
In its most recent Short-Term Energy Outlook, the U.S. Energy Information Adminsitration said it expected WTI to average just $53.57 per barrel, an almost 25 percent reduction from its forecast in January 2015 of $71.
In its Biennial Revenue Estimate, the Texas state comptroller’s office said it anticipates crude prices in 2016 to average $64.52, nearly $11 more than the EIA forecast. Oklahoma’s state budget assumes oil prices around $57. And Alaska and Colorado have the least conservative forecasts at about $65 and $68, respectively.
Feds order probe into soaring electricity prices in downstate Illinois. Crain's is reporting:
Federal energy regulators smell a rat in downstate Illinois. The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission has taken the unusual step of ordering a formal investigation into the results of a power auction last spring that caused the energy price paid by Ameren Illinois customers to jump 31 percent beginning in June. After several months of informal probing, FERC, which oversees the functioning of wholesale power markets, gave its enforcement staff subpoena authority on Oct. 1.

The order says FERC investigators will probe any potential evidence of market manipulation or other rules violations.

The officials to be put under oath may well include executives with Houston-based Dynegy, which dominates the power generating market downstate and has acknowledged that a bid by one of its Illinois plants set the “capacity” price that caused downstate electric bills to surge.

At issue is the auction held in April by regional grid operator MISO Energy to determine the price consumers pay power plants for their promise to deliver during high-demand periods when they're most needed. Those capacity costs are embedded in the overall electricity price households and businesses pay.

In that auction, the cost of capacity in downstate Illinois in the year beginning June 1 spiked nearly 9 times to $150 per megawatt-day, from $16.75 the 12-month period before. That will cause the average Ameren Illinois household to pay more than $130 more for electricity this year.

After the price spike, Illinois Attorney General Lisa Madigan asked FERC to overturn the result and conduct a formal investigation. FERC said no to reversing the outcome, but yes to the probe.

Wednesday, October 14, 2015: A Great Day For Blogging, Though Blogging Will Be Delayed A Few Hours

Active rigs:


10/14/201510/14/201410/14/201310/14/201210/14/2011
Active Rigs67190183192195

RBN Energy: the Energy Transfer / Williams acquisition. First in a series. A keeper. Will be archived at the source.
In a $38 Billion transaction announced September 28, 2015, Energy Transfer Equity (ETE) agreed to gobble up The Williams Companies in a deal expected to close during the first half of 2016. The combination of these two companies creates a U.S. midstream giant that will own infrastructure including gas pipelines carrying as much as 45% of U.S. Lower 48 dry gas production, processing capacity producing16% of domestic natural gas liquids (NGL’s) and crude oil pipelines in the Permian, Eagle Ford and Bakken. Today we take a look at the liquids infrastructure assets in this giant deal and provide a download of RBN’s maps of the infrastructure involved.
The financial intricacies of the ETE acquisition of Williams (let’s call it “The Deal”) are complex to say the least. ETE is today the parent company of the Energy Transfer group and a publically traded Master Limited Partnership.
 ETE sits atop four companies – three of which – Sunoco LP (SUN), Energy Transfer Partners LP (ETP) and Sunoco Logistics Partners LP (SLX) – are also publically traded MLPs with the fourth being Energy Transfer LNG – the vehicle behind the group’s proposed Lake Charles LNG export terminal. The Deal calls for a new company called Energy Transfer Corp (ETC) to take over the reins from ETE at the top of the group – ruling over four MLPs with Williams Partners LP (WPZ) joining SUN, ETP and SLX as well as Lake Charles LNG (that will become an MLP when and if the terminal comes online (expected mid-2020). The big deal is that ETC is a C-Corp entity – meaning that it is treated as a corporation for tax purposes and therefore does not have all the tax advantages associated with MLPs. The advantage of C-Corp status is access to a broader spectrum of institutional investors (MLP’s are messy investments for tax reporting). C-Corp status also reduces some of the baggage associated with MLP structures that have lost significant market value since oil prices crashed in 2014. For example ETE rival Kinder Morgan transformed back to a C-Corp in November 2014 by acquiring its Kinder Morgan Energy Partners MLP in a $76 billion transaction. ETE’s acquisition of Williams leaves a considerably more messy mixture of C-Corp and MLP structures in place than the Kinder deal but one that the company claim has more optionality. That means the four MLPs under ETC retain much of their own identity and WPZ retains its name and public listing.
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Doing Just Fine, Thank You

Being reported by Reuters/Rigzone:
U.S. shale oil and gas producers have seen smaller-than-expected cuts to their credit lines, a sign that banks could be relaxing their lending standards to help companies avoid technical defaults.

Tuesday, October 13, 2015

Twelve (12) New Permits; 2/3 Bakken Wells Go To DUC Status; CLR With A Huge Well; Active Rigs Tie Post-Boom Low -- North Dakota; October 13, 2015

Active rigs:


10/13/201510/13/201410/13/201310/13/201210/13/2011
Active Rigs67191184192195

Twelve (12) new permits --
  • Operators: QEP (8), Abraxas (4)
  • Fields: North Fork (McKenzie), Grail (McKenzie)
  • Comments: the Abraxas permits are for Stenehjem wells in section 22-150-97 (a well pad); the QEP permits are for eight more KDM wells  in section 7-149-95; that will bring the number of wells sited in this section to 24;
Wells coming off confidential list Wednesday:
  • 28536, SI/NC, Hess, HA-Sanford-LE-152-96-1819H-1, Westberg, no production data,
  • 28895, SI/NC, Zavanna, Blackjack 24-13 2TFH, East Fork, no production data,
  • 29474, 1,088, CLR, Candee 5-9H1, Chimney Butte, 4 sections, Three Forks, 30 stages, 6 million lbs, a 6-well pad (Candee/Kukla) t5/15; cum 60K 8/15;
Four (4) producing wells abandoned: two Petro Harvester wells, Wright and Steinhaus in Bottineau County; MRO's Boy Chief in Dunn County; and, Silver Oak Energy's Rankin well in Slope County

OXY USA puts two wells on temporary abandon list: the F. Skachenko and the Kary wells, both in Dunn County

One (1) producing well completed:
  • 30693, 163, EOG, Wayzetta 69-2531H, Parshall, ICO, no production data, 
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29474, see above, CLR, Candee 5-9H1, Chimney Butte:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
8-201551164567
7-2015101509094
6-20151510513819
5-20152784122758

Random Update On Kuparuk River Oil Field, North Slope, Alaska -- October 13, 2015

From wiki:
The Kuparuk River Oil Field, or Kuparuk, located in North Slope Borough, Alaska, United States, is the second largest oil field in North America by area.
It produces approximately 230,000 barrels per day of oil and is estimated to have 2 billion barrels of recoverable oil reserves.
Kuparuk was discovered by Sinclair Oil in April 1969 at the Ugnu Number 1 well, named for the nearby Ugnuravik River. Oil was found in the Kuparuk sandstone on the Colville structure. Production was first announced by ARCO in 1979 and planned to start in 1982. Production actually began December 13, 1981, on five small gravel drilling pads. Production was expected to peak in 1986 at 250,000 barrels per day, but did not peak until 1992 at 322,000 barrels per day.
Today Oil & Gas Journal announced:
ConocoPhillips Alaska Inc. has started oil production from its Kuparuk drill site on Alaska’s North Slope (ANS). Known as Kuparuk Drill Site 2S, or DS2S, the project is expected to add 8,000 bopd gross at peak production
The project includes 14 development wells, a gravel road, a drilling pad capable of handling 24 wells, power lines, pipelines, and other surface facilities. The drill site is in the southwestern section of Kuparuk field.
Let's see: 8,000 bopd / 14 development wells = 571 bopd/well
Or, 8,000 bopd / 24 wells = 333 bopd/well