24/7 Wall Street On North Dakota Rig Counts -- May 27, 2015

24/7 Wall Street is reporting:

Is it possible that the never-ending rig count decline is ending in North Dakota? There could be good news headed the way of companies like Whiting Petroleum Corp., Nabors Industries Ltd, and XTO under Exxon Mobil Corp. . It appears as though the rig count in North Dakota may be confirming what some analysts and investors are looking at as a trough in the rig counts in North Dakota.

The current active drilling rig list in North Dakota was 84 for the May 25, 2015, date. While this is down from 191 at the same time in 2014 (and versus 186 in 2013 and 214 in 2012), it is little changed from the prior two weeks. North Dakota is effectively the second largest state for oil now, thanks to the Bakken shale region.

The news did not act as a driver for the stocks on Monday, but a strong “market sell” bias may be more of an issue than the North Dakota rig counts. It is one issue to try to call a bottom and another issue entirely for certain investors to try to say that the long decline may finally be reaching close to a trough. Picking exact bottoms can be a sucker’s game. Picking a trend can create large gainers, as long as the move isn’t more than 10% or 20% off the mark. As a reminder, stocks pop and drop on any given day, but the stock market tries to start discounting big trends sometimes two quarters out.

Regular readers know the fallacy of tracking rig counts to try to determine "the bottom."

I track rig counts to give me an idea of the amount of "activity" in the Bakken. Rig counts, as a single data point, is relatively useless to predict oil production coming out of North Dakota.

Crescent Point Energy To Acquire Legacy Oil + Gas For Shares -- May 27, 2015

Reuters is reporting (a big "thank you" to a reader for sending the link):

Crescent Point Energy Inc, Canada's No.4 independent oil and gas producer, said on Tuesday it has agreed to acquire Legacy Oil + Gas Inc for shares and debt worth C$1.53 billion ($1.23 billion), adding oil production in its core regions in Western Canada and North Dakota.

Crescent Point is offering 0.095 of its own shares for each Legacy share. Based on Crescent Point's closing price on Monday of C$30.00, the offer is worth C$2.85 per Legacy share.

Long, long history.

Two New 4-Well Pads Proposed By QEP In Heart Butte -- May 27, 2015

From two recent daily activity reports:

This is based on what I read but I could have misread something. I know the oval in section 24 should be a bit farther up. Don't make any financial or investment decisions based on what I post at this blog. If this information is important to you go to the source. I post this information solely for my own use to better understand the Bakken. Readers can use it however they want but don't quote me on it.

Wednesday -- Back To The Bakken With Some Great Stories, May 27, 2015

Active rigs:

	5/27/2015	05/27/2014	05/27/2013	05/27/2012	05/27/2011
Active Rigs	84	190	187	214	172

RBN Energy: nice update on Bakken operators. If that link is unavailable, here is another link, which will only be available a limited period of time.

Oil-Weighted exploration and production companies (E&Ps) are slashing capital spending in 2015, as they need to regain control of their costs in today’s lower oil price environment. With robust oil prices over the past three years, these companies only posted middling profitability as capital and operating costs ate up much of their incremental revenue.

The Large Oil Weighted E&Ps are cutting back less than the Small/Mid-Sized Oil Weighted E&Ps as they are more financially secure and have more ability to spend through the price cycle.

The Small/Mid-Sized Oil Weighted E&Ps are focused on getting their spending in line with cash flows and to get to a point where they are self-funding their capital investment. Today we explore how each of the companies in the two oil-weighted peer groups is trying to resolve these issues.

At Seeking Alpha, COP expanding in more ways than one:

Summary:

• ConocoPhillips' Bakken/Three-Forks operations will continue to pump out production growth through 2017 and beyond.
• Downspacing projects may boost Conoco's drilling inventory and resource potential.
• The Middle Three-Forks remains the emerging play to watch going forward.
• Expect an update on ConocoPhillips' completion optimization tests by year-end.

North Dakota, Montana, and South Dakota house the Bakken and Three-Forks formations, one of the symbolic oil-weighted plays of the North American energy revolution. Several shale developers have built up sizeable positions in the area to create lengthy production growth runways for themselves.

ConocoPhillips has made developing its unconventional resource base, which includes shale plays, its top priority going forward as its Surmont 2 and APLNG facilities are brought online this year. After building up a 620,000 net acre position in the Bakken/Three-Forks region that is primarily located in McKenzie and Dunn counties [two of the most prolific counties in the area], ConocoPhillips plans on putting its acreage to good use.

Filloon update on the Bakken, at Seeking Alpha:

Summary:

• Core areas of the top U.S. plays produce excellent economics at $60/bbl realized oil prices.
• Production per foot continues to improve, and at a faster pace than investors realize.
• Oil service costs have decreased in 2015, and should continue to head lower through year-end.
• We believe the Permian is the best area in the United States, and FANG has excellent acreage in Midland County.

Many have become bearish the oil markets; oil and gas have been removed from portfolios. However, we believe the pullback has created an opportunity. Buying unfavorable sectors is a common practice as markets recover. When dollars exit, value is found. Selling a down industry is a common mistake, as the initial pain of the pullback is realized and dollars are removed before the industry recovers.

The greatest fear of investors is the economic validity of unconventional production. This stems from a lack of understanding. Fracking has been around for decades, but its use in horizontal production has not. We believe current oil prices support the profitability of shale, and current well data supports this. Many of the newer plays have become uneconomic, as have marginal areas of the Big Three. The Bakken, Eagle Ford, and Permian still have significant inventories of core wells to complete.

The Canadian Fire Continues; Statoil And MEG Energy Evacuating Non-Essential Staff -- May 27, 2015

An update on an earlier story on this fire, Reuters at Rigzone is reporting:

Statoil ASA and MEG Energy Inc evacuated non-essential staff from oil sands projects in northeastern Alberta on Tuesday as wildfires raged through the key crude-producing region.

The two are the latest of several oil producers, including Cenovus Energy Inc and Canadian Natural Resources Ltd , to move staff away from the potential danger.

At least 233,000 barrels per day of oil sands production, 9 percent of Alberta's total oil sands output, have been suspended in the province's northeast because of the fire risk, though none of the projects have been damaged.

The Alberta government said there are 66 forest fires now burning in the province, with 19 considered out of control. Statoil evacuated around 110 employees from its 20,000 barrel per day Leismer project as a precaution, although production is unaffected and the company does not anticipate having to shut down operations.