Update On A KOG Well Not Fracked For Two Years

Back on June 20, 2013, I posted something I said "was not ready for prime time." Now, we know the rest of the story.

Go back to this link to re-familiarize yourself with this well:

• 18987, 223, KOG, Two Shields Butte 14-21-16-2HS, t4/11; cum 282K 4/13; 

There are four wells on the pad that this well is on. I will only look at this well, assuming a similar story for the others.

What surprised me was this well (and a neighboring KOG well) had some of the worst IPs I had ever seen, and was curious.

Here's the entire production history:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	3-2014	28	10304	10244	3534	6903	6337	483
BAKKEN	2-2014	28	10310	10355	3622	7038	6588	366
BAKKEN	1-2014	31	11942	11937	4203	7897	6735	1069
BAKKEN	12-2013	31	12437	12702	4262	7857	5996	1768
BAKKEN	11-2013	30	11978	11774	4001	7197	4081	3026
BAKKEN	10-2013	31	13253	13207	4557	8925	2681	6151
BAKKEN	9-2013	30	14453	14463	5293	11013	571	10352
BAKKEN	8-2013	31	16490	16410	5741	12938	1882	10963
BAKKEN	7-2013	31	18320	18416	5891	13227	3988	9146
BAKKEN	6-2013	28	18799	18789	6337	13916	5396	8440
BAKKEN	5-2013	31	24082	24140	8336	14066	9562	4411
BAKKEN	4-2013	30	29922	29870	11756	19524	6877	12557
BAKKEN	3-2013	30	39986	39636	33530	22340	0	22251
BAKKEN	2-2013	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	1-2013	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	12-2012	1	1	75	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	11-2012	20	1478	1731	30	1118	0	1058
BAKKEN	10-2012	31	2354	2081	20	1760	0	1668
BAKKEN	9-2012	30	2050	2359	28	1596	0	1507
BAKKEN	8-2012	23	2184	1953	27	1482	0	1415
BAKKEN	7-2012	25	2176	2134	19	1601	0	1536
BAKKEN	6-2012	30	2516	2576	44	1939	0	1852
BAKKEN	5-2012	31	3038	2978	59	2257	0	2166
BAKKEN	4-2012	17	2043	2017	28	1333	0	1282
BAKKEN	3-2012	2	546	561	528	263	0	257
BAKKEN	2-2012	29	2765	2778	1606	1903	0	1819
BAKKEN	1-2012	31	3042	3021	1913	2106	0	2016
BAKKEN	12-2011	31	3222	3232	2933	2259	0	2166
BAKKEN	11-2011	29	3328	3594	774	2885	0	2160
BAKKEN	10-2011	18	1809	1824	1974	1087	0	637
BAKKEN	9-2011	21	1751	1766	181	889	0	364
BAKKEN	8-2011	31	2774	2902	741	1609	0	834
BAKKEN	7-2011	29	2552	2836	12	1581	0	856
BAKKEN	6-2011	30	3650	3285	410	2219	0	1469
BAKKEN	5-2011	26	4007	4006	114	2470	108	1712
BAKKEN	4-2011	10	1713	1535	153	863	0	613
BAKKEN	3-2011	1	0	0	48	0	0	0
BAKKEN	2-2011	1	323	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	1-2011	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	12-2010	0	0	0	0	8903	0	845

1. Note the poor production history for the first two years. It turns out the well was drilled in late 2010, but was not fracked until some time later.

2. The production one sees between 12/10 and 12/12 was from an unfracked well.

3. At the time of the original post, the spacing was still "ICO" -- to be determined.

4. We now know the spacing is 640 acres. Interestingly, however, it is a long lateral but the spacing is the east half of section 16 (320 acres) and the east half of section 21 (320 acres) of 149-92.

5. The well was taken off-line November, 2012, and not brought back on-line until March, 2013. It was during this period that the well was fracked. This well has produced almost 235,000 bbls of oil since it was fracked, and the spacing was only 640 acres.

6. Although not a great well before it was fracked, nonetheless, it produced as much as some fracked wells in other parts of the Basin.

7. The IP of the unfracked well was 223 as noted above. What the scout ticket does not tell us is that the IP of the well when it was finally fracked was 2,061, 27 stages, 4 million lbs of sand.

Back In The Old Days ... Random Follow-Up On A Filloon Rumor ...

It seems like ages ago, but only two years ago, on March 20, 2012, when multi-well pads, especially 6-well pads, were still new and unique, Mike Filloon posted a rumor suggesting a 12-well pad in Alger old field. Just out of curiosity, I updated that stand-alone post. In that section, all located in one quadrant are sited 15 wells. If you want to see the wells, they should be easy to view: they are right off a county road: go five miles west of Ross and then go north 1.5 miles.

Random Note: HRC To Report Huge Well In Marmon Oil Field

26210, drl, HRC, State 157-100-29A-32-3H, Marmon oil field,

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	3-2014	24	11450	12019	30784	15942	9297	6477
BAKKEN	2-2014	18	12195	11448	29916	10946	4343	6477

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A Note to the Granddaughters

If one wants to learn about Stonehenge, the book NOT to read is Stonehenge: A New Interpretation of Prehistoric Man and the Cosmos, John North, c. 1996.

This is an incredible piece of work. If no new book on Stonehenge appears in the next 50 years, this book may be the reason. This is an encyclopedia of a book on the subject. It is incredible; it is amazing what one author can write in a lifetime. If one wants to know everything one could possibly know about Stonehenge this book probably has it. I say "probably" because one could spend hours on it and barely scratch the surface. It will be very difficult for another author to out-do this book.

The book's thesis is that Stonehenge, as well as similar structures and barrows in England, were built "based" on observations of the stars and perhaps less so than on the Sun and Moon or the planets). Stonehenge was probably under construction and modification for two thousand years. The author says that at every phase in the monument's long history aspects of its design were aligned on one or another solar or lunar extreme of rising or setting, although in the earliest phases attention was very probably given to certain stars.

This is the kind of book, perhaps, that is best to skim through first, sort of like a buffet. Check out the offerings before indulging. Go through the buffet line first without a plate, then return with a small plate, with plans to return later for the full deal.

Doing so, I stumbled across three pages of delightful reading on the rising, setting, and nightly path of Venus, the planet. Our older granddaughter and I have a "habit," I guess one would call it, of spotting Venus each night (see below) and commenting on it. Even the younger granddaughter now gets into the act, noting that when "our" Venus is red, it's probably not Venus at all, but Mars.

Some data points from the three pages on Venus in the book on Stonehenge:

• the planet is much brighter than any "fixed" star, even Sirius
• Venus can even cast a shadow, under the right circumstances
• like the Moon, and unlike the fixed stars, it rises and sets on successive occasions at different positions of the local horizon
• Venus seems to us to stick more or less to the ecliptic, the Sun's apparent path through the stars
• Venus wanders away from the ecliptic periodically -- in a highly systematic but complex way
• the general description of the pattern of Venus' behaviour is somewhat like the Moon's
• the crescent form of Venus will not be appreciated by the untrained naked eye 
• when too close to the Sun, the planet will not be visible at all, lost in the Sun's rays
• Venus is visible either before sunrise in the morning or after sunset in the evening, but not both (it is not both an evening star and a morning star in the same 24-hour period)
• Venus is never far from the Sun
• if a morning star, the Sun will be up by the time Venus sets; if seen as an evening star, the Sun will rise before it
• observing the changing patter of a planet's risings and settings is a much more complex activity than observing a star's relatively fixed behaviour

That must have driven early humans nuts, seeing these unpredictable "stars" flit across the evening sky, and some nights not showing up at all.

Venus, Shocking Blue

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 Global Warming: Der Spiegel

Apparently the "science is settled" 

Now shut up and start coloring

Some scientists complain pressure to conform to consensus opinion has become a serious hindrance in the field.

News that Lennart Bengtsson, the respected former director of Germany's Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, had joined the Global Warming Policy Foundation (GWPF), sent shockwaves through the climate research community. GWPF is most notable for its skepticism about climate change and its efforts to undermine the position of the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The tremors his decision sent through the scientific community shocked Bengtsson. 

The scientist said colleagues placed so much pressure on him after joining GWPF that he withdrew from the group out of fear for his own health. Bengtsson added that his treatment had been reminiscent of the persecution of suspected Communists in the United States during the era of McCarthyism in the 1950s.

Fortunately I didn't get the original memo.

[Later, 6:15 p.m. central time: I am in good company. This is purely coincidental. I wrote the above/posted the above earlier today. Many hours later, I was checking for typographical errors in the blog, and happened to check a few links on the sidebar. One of them was the "Coyote Blog."

You know that relative of yours, who last Thanksgiving called you anti-science because you had not fully bought into global warming alarm?

Well, it appears that the reason we keep getting called "anti-science" is because climate scientists have a really funny idea of what exactly "science" is.

Apparently, a number of folks have been trying for years to get articles published in peer reviewed journals comparing the IPCC temperature models to actual measurements, and in the process highlighting the divergence of the two. And they keep getting rejected.
Now, the publisher of Environmental Research Letters has explained why.  

Apparently, in climate science it is "an error" to attempt to compare computer temperature forecasts with the temperatures that actually occurred.  In fact, he says that trying to do so "is harmful as it opens the door for oversimplified claims of 'errors' and worse from the climate sceptics media side." Apparently, the purpose of scientific inquiry is to win media wars, and not necessarily to discover truth.

As noted, apparently with regard to "global warming," the science is settled.]

Saturday Morning, May 24, 2014 -- First Day Of Three-Day Weekend (For Some) -- A Shoutout To The Roughnecks And Truckers

The Los Angeles Times

Drive-by shooting leaves seven (7) dead at UC Santa Barbara; top story, but almost sounds like "business-as-normal" event in Detroit. NBC-LA has more. [This is a "cut and paste" from the Los Angeles Times from the front page of May 26, 2014. It is the "sub-headline" to the headline. This is pure crap: "The severity of Elliot Rodger's mental ills slipped through cracks. His acquaintances, law enforcement officials and mental health professionals say he was deeply sad." 

This guy was not "deeply sad." Excuse me, hellooo... he was deeply disturbed. And he did not fall "between the cracks." 

The headline: "Red Flags Came Too Late." 

What a bunch of crap. His mother and father knew how serious it was. They got him into therapy. They even were able to get the sheriff (and six officers) out to the individual's house, who even says that had they searched his house, his plans to kill everyone would have ended. No, this guy did not fall in between the cracks. Society chose not to do anything about him. Nor could society do anything about it. 

But it sort of puts all the hand-wringing about fracking into perspective. It also puts the risks of transporting CBR into perspective. Already, the Los Angeles Times is turning this into a story about how "we" need to have compassion toward the murderer. And, yes, it's no surprise that the story quickly evolves into "gun rights." The writer mentions in passing that his first victims were stabbed -- perhaps with kitchen knives -- and not killed with guns. There were as many victims killed with knives as with guns in this case.]

The Wall Street Journal

Beef prices spike.

Housing recovery's missing link: first-time buyers.

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Appeals court throws out energy-saving rule

A federal appeals court dealt a blow to electricity-conservation efforts on Friday when it struck down a rule allowing big energy consumers to reap special payments in exchange for cutting their power use.

The D.C. Circuit Court of Appeals nullified a 2011 order by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission that promoted paying businesses to reduce electricity consumption during heavy times of demand.

The court ruled that as a federal regulator FERC had gone too far, encroaching in retail electricity markets that are under the exclusive jurisdiction of states.

The FERC order was considered integral to federal efforts to curb carbon emissions from power plants and support energy-efficiency investments by big consumers, from grocery store chains to aluminum manufacturers.

But electricity suppliers struggling against low power prices and lackluster demand said those payments had become excessive. The Electric Power Supply Association filed the lawsuit on behalf of power generators that sell electricity into wholesale markets regulated by FERC. The group's executive director John Shelk praised the court's ruling, saying it "vindicates what we and so many others said about this ill-advised order all along."

There is a proper role for demand response programs, but it must be compensated appropriately, Mr. Shelk said. While the court ruling doesn't eliminate these programs, it is expected to significantly reduce the size of payments many participants receive. Lower payments will discourage customers from investing in automated equipment that help control and reduce energy use.

Hopefully, a detour off "the road to New England." Another lesson learned from Germany's debacle.

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Tesla doubt? -- Panasonic.

S&P closes at record 1,900:

Mony, Mony, Tommy James and the Shondells

The Dickinson Press

Semi-truck rollover west of South Heart closes I-94, old US Highway 10; photo of first responders but no photo of the actual "event"; stock photo? Jet fuel and pesticide spill; highway closed for three hours; caused headaches for commuters; driver 29 years old; not wearing seat belt; ejected from truck; good news: no mosquito spraying will be needed in this immediate area for a few weeks -- especially if the spill got into standing water along the road.

BNSF official sees "big opportunity" in switch from diesel to LNG locomotives; won't be easy; previously posted.

Week 21: May 18, 2014 -- May 24, 2014

Operations
RBC Capital suggests North Dakota will hit one-million-bopd milestone by early summer
ERF's Prairie Dog well: more than 110,000 bbls in three months
Halcon reports IP of almost 4,000 bopd; no headline; business as usual

CBR
CBR Bakken crude oil tends not to explode if trains stay on tracks
BNSF efforts to improve service 

Fracking
The halo effect -- Motley Fool

Flaring
Governor says days of "going easy" on flaring are over
Gas capture program
Down to 10%?

Pipeline
New pipeline investment opportunity in the Bakken: Enable Midstream Partners

Bakken 101
Oil productivity per rig in the Bakken, Eagle Ford, Permian, and Niobrara
A couple of EOG wells go PNC after 30,000 bbls produced in first month 
Update on Whiting well testing CO2 injection
Natural gas, bi-fuel drilling rigs in the Bakken
Canadian company to try nitrogen flooding in the Bakken/Three Forks
Modeling of the Bakken -- EOG
Random look at a re-entered/re-completed well by Thunderbird Resources
Random look at a re-entered/re-completed EOG well
Five-year drilling and completion trends in the Bakken

Bakken economy
Legacy fund over $2 billion; $80 million being added every month
Swiss developer preparing to break ground on half-billion-dollar project in Williston
The future of Bakken investment -- long essay in The Bismarck Tribune
New underpass west of Williston -- graphic

Miscellaneous
On track for almost 3,000 permits this calendar year
Monterey Shale, California, taken off the table by the feds
WTI oil at $104 as we go into Memorial Day weekend
President Obama announces formation of Federal Fracking Permitting Agency?
It wasn't about Keystone XL after all; it was all about a competing Kinder Morgan pipeline
Shale is a US phenomenon
France, UK to run out of fossil fuel in less than five years