Wednesday, May 14, 2014

Twelve (12) New Permits -- The Williston Basin, North Dakota, USA; EOG Reports A Huge Well Thursday; Has Anyone Ever Thought Of Naming One Of The California Faults After George W. Bush?

Wells coming off confidential list Thursday:
  • 25598, drl, HRC, Fort Berthold 147-94-2B-11-3H, McGregory Buttes, no production data,
  • 25853, 1,203, EOG, Wayzetta 34-2829H, Parshall, t12/13; cum 147K 3/14;
  • 26266, drl, Petro-Hunt, Van Hise Trust 153-95-28D-21-5H, Charlson, no production data,
  • 26341, drl, HRC, Miller 157-101-12D-1-3H, Otter, no production data,
  • 26437, 2,124, BR, CCU Corral Creek 11-28TFH, Corral Creek, t4/14; cum --
  • 26457, drl, XTO, Broderson 31X-27D, Siverston, no production data,
  • 26795, 493, CLR, Snider 1-21H1, Ukraina, t3/14; cum 2K 3/14;
  • 26878, drl, XTO, FBIR Guyblackhawk 24X-27H, Heart Butte, no production data,
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25853, see above, EOG, Wayzetta 34-2829H, Parshall, 146K:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
3-20144621022724
2-20144661823141
1-2014199870
12-2013312390
11-201320070
 
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Active rigs:


5/14/201405/14/201305/14/201205/14/201105/14/2010
Active Rigs189190208173114

Twelve (12) new permits --
  • Operators: KOG (4), XTO (3), Newfield (2), CRL (2), Armstrong Operating
  • Fields: Truax (Williams), Siverston (McKenzie), Tobacco Garden (McKenzie), Juno (Divide)
  • Comments: Armstrong has a permit for a wildcat well in Slope County; Armstrong has a history of targeting the Lodgepole, 12-135-101 is 2.6 miles NNE of the new Amidon court house
Wells coming off the confidential list were posted earlier; see sidebar at the right.

One (1) producing well completed:
  • 26748, 552, OXY USA, Wittinger 4-8-5H-143-95, Murphy Creek, t4/13; cum --  
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"Pushy" Women At The New York Times Not Tolerated

This almost makes Los Angeles Clippers owner Donald Sterling look like a saint: the publisher of the NY Times fires the executive director because she asked for equal pay AND she was thought to be "too pushy." Of course, one can debate whether that was true: whether she asked for "equal pay" -- I certainly don't know if that's true, but that's what "they" say -- and no one would really know, except perhaps the publisher, if she was fired because she was "too pushy," but a very good Times reporter should be able to piece together the pay package the female executive editor was receiving and compare that to the pay package received by her male predecessor.

Something tells me the delta would be startling.

I can't wait to see the next NY Times editorial arguing for equal pay for equal work.

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Never Mind

Governor Moonbeam said that a 4-foot rise in ocean levels would inundate Los Angeles International Airport in 200 years. I don't know what he's worried about; by that time folks will be taking the bullet train from Los Angeles to just about everywhere....

A spokesman to the governor later said that the governor misspoke. The airport is some 200 feet above sea level.

Airport authorities went on to assure Californians that airport operations will be operating normally 200 years from now. When asked about this weekend, they could not guarantee that operations would be running smoothly.

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Maybe It's Time To Rename It The George W. Bush Fault

Maybe it's not fracking that is causing all those earthquakes. Talk about drivel. Let's just quit teaching plate tectonics and rename the San Andreas Fault the George W. Bush Fault so WHEN the big one actually does hit (again), we know what to blame: the George W. Bush Fault. LOL.

Wind Farms Still Cost About $2.5 Million / MW; Three Times More Expensive Than Natural Gas

I can never remember the cost comparisons but here was one back on March 24, 2014:
  • Solar: $3 million / MW
  • Wind: $2.5 million / MW
  • Natural gas: $865,000 / MW
Back on March 19, 2014:
So, that's the ball-park, I guess, for wind, about $2.5 million / MW of electricity.

HoustonBusinessJournal is reporting:
A massive wind-power installation backed by Colorado billionaire Philip Anschutz is moving closer to reality, with an application filed with Wyoming authorities to build and operate what may be the biggest wind farm in North America.
The Chokecherry and Sierra Madre Wind Energy Program wind farm is being developed by the Power Company of Wyoming LLC, a subsidiary of The Anschutz Corp. It involves 1,000 wind turbines capable of generating up to 3,000 megawatts of power — enough to support the electricity demands of about 900,000 homes.
The $6 billion wind farm was proposed in 2008, and received a go-ahead from the U.S. Department of Interior, via its Record of Decision on the project, in 2012.
A companion project — a $3 billion, 725-mile power line to be built by TransWest Express LLC, also backed by Anschutz — is being studied by the federal Bureau of Land Management (BLM). 
Without the transmission line:
  • $6,000,000,000 / 3,000 MW = $2.0 million / MW (compared to about $500,000 - $1 million for natural gas)
With the transmission line:
  • $3.0 million / MW
So, the numbers still seem to hold true: about $2.5 million / MW for wind, perhaps 3x what it would cost for natural gas and even more than what coal would cost. And yes, the increased monthly utility bill will be paid by the .... homeowner. Industrial manufacturers will get reduced rates.

The Phenomenal Bakken Phenomenon

Bloomberg is reporting:
U.S. crude production climbed to a 28-year high last week as the shale boom moved the world’s biggest oil-consuming country closer to energy independence.
Output rose 78,000 barrels a day to 8.428 million, the most since October 1986, ... attributed to shale deposits in the Bakken (North Dakota) and the Eagle Ford (Texas).

The U.S. met 87 percent of its energy needs in 2013, and 90 percent in December, the most since March 1985, according to the EIA, the statistical arm of the Energy Department. 
Crude output will average 8.46 million barrels a day this year and 9.24 million in 2015, up from 7.45 million last year. 
Next year’s projection would be the highest annual average since 1972.
The EIA forecasts that the gain in production at shale fields will be augmented by greater offshore output this year and next. Crude output in the waters of the Gulf of Mexico will climb by 150,000 barrels a day in 2014 and by an additional 240,000 barrels in 2015, following four consecutive years of declines, according to the May 6 report.

For Investors Only; Infill Density In Stockyard Creek To Be 16 Wells/Driling Unit -- Samson Oil & Gas

Yahoo!'s In-Play still seems to be on the fritz, as they say. It's finally post today's notes, but it is several hours behind. Deere's earnings weren't reported though they are out; they were not a pretty sight, and that probably explains today's market.

Samson Oil & Gas repots its weekly operations update: Co reports the infill development plan for North Stockyard is to drill 8 middle Bakken wells and 8 Three Forks wells.
  • Rod pumps were installed on Little Creature and Tooheys wells, and both are currently pumping. 
  • The Bootleg 5-14-15TFH well has been drilled a measured depth of 11,675 feet, which is the total depth of the intermediate hole landing in the Three Forks Formation. The rig is currently preparing to run the 7 inch production casing. The rig will then be skidded to the Bootleg 4-14-15TFH well, which has been drilled to surface casing depth of 2,418 feet, where 9-5/8 inch casing was run and cemented. The intermediate hole will be drilled from this depth. 
  • Hydraulic fracture stimulation operations are planned to start on both Matilda Bay wells on May 14th.
Six companies announce increased dividends or distributions including Clorox.

The Dow is off slightly but almost all energy stocks are up, and some are up nicely, probably due to the price of oil continuing to rise; today, up another half-percent, solidly above $102/bbl. Interestingly enough, the price of gasoline in our neighborhood is down; the least expensive is about $3.35/gallon.

Trading at new 52-week highs: BAX, TRN.

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KMOV (St Louis, MO) is reporting:
Employees at an Affordable Care Act processing center in Wentzville with a contract worth $1.2 billion are getting paid to do nothing but sit at their computers, a whistleblower tells News 4.
The facility is operated by Serco, which is owned by a British company awarded $1.2 billion partially to hire workers to handle paper applications for coverage under the new healthcare law.
A worker tells News 4 weeks can pass without employees receiving even a single application to process. Employees reportedly spend their days staring at their computers.
“They’re told to sit at their computers and hit the refresh button every 10 minutes, no more than every 10 minutes,” the employee said. “They’re monitored, to hopefully look for an application.”
Nice work, if you can get it, not the employees, but the CEO. I assume the contract was a fixed fee contract; as the number of applications dwindles, the CEO lays off more workers. If the contract were based on the number of applications processed, the company would likely need one or two workers.

Active Rigs Trending Down Again -- May 14, 2014

I apologize for the delay getting started. I started the day biking and am now just getting to the computer.

Active rigs:


5/14/201405/14/201305/14/201205/14/201105/14/2010
Active Rigs189190208173114


RBN Energy: coordinating the natural gas and electricity industries.
The most significant of FERC’s proposed changes is to move the start of the “gas day” —that’s the time when any change in a daily nomination will take effect— up from its longstanding 9 AM Central Time to 4 AM Central, in order to allow gas nomination changes to better match the ramp-up in electric loads.   The electric industry has long explained that if they’re right at the end of the prior gas day when everyone turns on the lights, heat, and computers, it is very difficult to have enough gas scheduled to supply the ramp-up of the generators.  Basically, the flowing volume on, say, Wednesday morning is the tail end of the daily amount that was nominated in the middle of the day on Monday—a day before the selection of generators for Wednesday took place.  On top of that, generators explain that at the tail end of the gas day they are often balancing flows to make up for higher takes earlier in the day, which restricts their availability of supply right when they need it (this explanation doesn’t get a lot of sympathy on pipelines where shippers are supposed to take their gas at even hourly rates, but nonetheless it’s a fact).
From the responses we’ve seen so far, it seems like most producers haven’t been all that happy about the change in the gas day.  The stated concern is that not many wellhead facilities are remote-controlled, so someone actually has to go to each well and make physical adjustments when changes are made.  With the new rules, that would be happening sometime between 2 AM and 4 AM Central, or 1 AM to 3 AM in the Rockies, or midnight to 2 AM in the far west.  As compared with today’s schedule, where the earliest anyone has to be somewhere is between 5 AM and 7 AM in the west, the argument goes that this could mean a whole lot more midnight drives on dirt roads or no roads in the middle of nowhere, and it could mean that critical operations where safety is paramount would be carried out around the time other people are leaving the bar, not in morning daylight.   There are plenty of dedicated well-operation technicians, and they are no stranger to difficult operations, but the producers argue that the FERC’s proposed 4 AM Central Time start of the gas day would impose an unnecessary safety issue across the industry. 
The Wall Street Journal

Here we go again: White House and regulators are backing off on stringent mortgage rules; back to the housing bubble?


US reconsiders crude-oil export ban. Won't happen in my investing lifetime, but fun to talk about. Heard on the street: Energy Secretary Ernest Moniz's comments about "considering" US oil exports don't offer real support for crude prices.

Okay, how does this happen? Rep John Conyers, age 84, didn't file enough valid signatures to make the August 5, 2014, ballot for the Democratic primary -- thus forcing him into a write-in campaign to win his 26th term in the House. Apparently the lawmaker used several unqualified people to collect a significant portion of his petition signatures, among other problems. State law requires those who round up petition signatures for candidates be themselves registered to vote. That nasty voter ID law. Wanna bet he ends up on the ballot?

Tea-Party candidate wins in Nebraska likely making him the next senator in the antiestablishment mold of Senator Ted Cruz.

Makes the front section: Karl Rove questions Clinton's sanity.

Front page story on the western sage grouse.

Russia bans US sales of rocket engines; also bans US astronauts from International Space Station.

This is interesting: US steel imports are approaching record levels. I wonder who is using all that steel? Oil and gas industry; rail industry, no doubt.

Front page, second section: some farmers grow worried. US rail snarls have delayed fertilizer deliveries in the upper Midwest, raising fears that farms in the Dakotas, Minnesota, and Wisconsin won't have adequate nutrients to sow corn, wheat, and barley. Not a problem: go "organic."

Canadian canola farmers feeling crushed. The rail delays that slowed shiopments of grains in North America this past winter continue to ripple across western Canada, hurting canola farmers while providing grain processors with an abundance of cheap seed.

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Beyond ridiculous: high-tech bicycling.
I was a little embarrassed when I stepped into the elevator with my neighbor. I was wearing bright orange spandex, with an LED display protruding from my sunglasses. I wheeled in my brand new bicycle, equipped with two iPhones, a GPS unit and a small, Bluetooth-connected computer.  
You won't see me in spandex. You won't see with sunglasses, much less an LED display protruding from same. Nor will you see one, much less even two, iPhones or a GPS unit or a small Bluetooth-connected computer. Maybe someday I will get a GPS monitor. You probably won't even see me with a helmet. The only thing my bike and I are decked out in is lots of reflective tape and lots of white and red lights.
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Best article in the Journal today: concerts in New York and Washington, DC, will celebrate the most-performed classical-music composer alive. Maybe a stand-alone "note to the granddaughters on this one.

The Los Angeles Times

Landmark tax law Proposition 13 could get first change since 1978. Going down a slipper slope.

Median net worth of grads under the age of 40 still with student debt is only $8,700. The Obama legacy:
The financial travails of people under 40 with student-loan debt extend far beyond the college loans themselves, according to a new study. 
That’s because people with student loans often have other types of debt as well, such as car loans or credit-card borrowing, that weigh heavily on their overall financial well-being.
As a result, college graduate heads-of-household under 40 with student debt have a median net worth of only $8,700, according to the analysis by the Pew Research Center. That’s a fraction of the $64,700 the same group without college loans is worth.
The median student debt is about $13,000, a seemingly manageable amount.
But because of the other loans they’ve taken out, the median total indebtedness of college graduates under 40 with student loans is $137,010, according to the study. That is almost twice the $73,250 debt level for their counterparts with no college debt.
Back to the '70s: Orange County clears way for court-ordered treatment of mentally ill.

LA Times on Benghazi: "what does it matter?" At the end of the day, it will be the military that will be shamed for not tkaing the bull b the horn when given the order to "stand down" by someone other than the commander-in-chief. No one knows where the commander in chief was when Benghazi went down. Hillary was not in the chain of command. The real question: where was the commander, US Africa Command, or whichever joint command had responsibility for Libyan operations.

The Dickinson Press

The Press could have gone with a hundred different headlines, but chose the only one that could be viewed as a negative. And, in fact, they are wrong: production probably hit the 1-million-bopd milestone in April. The figures The Press cited were outdated but the most recent ones available. Both Reuters and the MDW suggest that North Dakota hit the 1-million-bopd milestone in April. Flaring dropped from 36% to 33% and will likely fall to a surprising 25% or better next month. Maybe we'll see that as a headline next month. I doubt it.

On the other hand, although not yet there, and possibly not there until the end of the year, The Press headlines that Minnesota wind power met renewable-mandate eleven years early, mostly because of North Dakota wind farms. No mention of all the dead migratory ducks, whooping cranes, eagles, and drones.

The Million-Dollar Man
, Lana del Rey