Thursday, November 14, 2013

Thursday; Marcellus Accounts For 76% Of Natural Gas Growth In US;

Time to move
Boeing's largest union rejected an eight-year contract that would have guaranteed the plane maker's updated long-range 777X jetliner and its wings are built in unionized facilities in the Pacific Northwest.
The rejection brings fresh uncertainty to the process of finding a manufacturing home for the 777X. Boeing threatened earlier to look outside its traditional Puget Sound base should the contract vote fail.
If Boeing moves out-of-state, the union is counting on NLRB to come to its aid. Don't count on it. With ObamaCare, things have changed.

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The nation's railroads are asking safety regulators to require that all existing tank cars that carry crude oil, ethanol and other flammable liquids be modified or upgraded to better withstand accidents or be "aggressively" phased out of service.
They are stopping short of recommending a deadline for the changes to the U.S. tank-car fleet or estimating the cost of the retrofits, which would be needed on 78,000 older tank cars and modifications to some of the 14,000 newer cars that don't already comply with its suggested changes.
The groups said they would leave those deadline and cost details to the Pipeline Hazardous Materials and Safety Administration, the federal agency responsible for regulating tank-car safety, which is beginning to craft new rules on tank cars.
Trade groups representing the railroads—the Association of American Railroads and the American Short Line and Regional Railroad Association—plan to make their request Thursday. Two troubling crude-by-rail accidents—the catastrophic accident in Quebec that killed 47 people last July in an inferno and another in Alabama last week—have shaken the rail industry at a time when crude oil shipments on the major freight railroads have ballooned to a projected 400,000 carloads this year from 4,700 carloads in 2006, according to the AAR.
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Active rigs: 183

RBN Energy: update on Marcellus productivity
The second release of the EIA’s new monthly Drilling Productivity Report (DPR) for November came out on Tuesday (November 12, 2013) showing December natural gas production is expected to increase in four of the six regions covered. But one region alone – the Marcellus – accounts for 76 percent of natural gas production growth. In fact if the Marcellus were a country it would rank 5th in world gas production – ahead of Qatar. The DPR provides a breakdown of rig productivity and production from new and legacy wells and includes access to historical data back to 2007. Today we continue our review of the latest Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) report.
This was a feature story in the StarTribune about a week ago on military veterans returning from wars overseas finding jobs in the Bakken oil patch. 

The Wall Street Journal

Obama "open" to health-law change. This will be a huge mess as they try to patch work this back to "something."

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Hmmm....I always love a mystery. Business owners throughout the US used-smartphone market are reporting they suddenly cannot unlock old iPhones. None of them know exactly what changed, but  AT&T seems to be at the center of it. 
The market is gone," Mr. Ashner said, who said he was on track for $1 million in revenue this year.
"We are closing up." Business owners throughout the U.S. used-smartphone market are reporting the same problem, and like Mr. Ashner none of them knows exactly what went wrong.
Whatever changed, AT&T appears to be at the center of it.
The carrier accounts for 48% of the iPhones now operating in the U.S., according to comScore, and the technology it uses is compatible with most of the world's networks. That gives its phones the widest resale market. Wholesalers had long been able to get AT&T's iPhones unlocked on a mass scale by specialized services, many working out of Asia, for relatively little cost.
That changed about a month ago, when people in the industry say AT&T suddenly made it harder to unlock phones on its network.
"AT&T was very lax for a long time in regards to mobile phone unlocking. If they said no, a third-party unlocker would be happy to unlock any AT&T iPhone or other device for a very decent price," said Will Strafach, who runs a Connecticut-based unlocking company called ChronicUnlocks.
"AT&T is really taking action and coming down hard."
In mid-October, AT&T did stop accepting unlocking requests over the phone and now requires that they be made online, a person familiar with the matter said. The process is only open to current and former customers, who must enter their email addresses and last four digits of their social security numbers, among other information, according to AT&T's website.
The mystery underscores how shadowy the used-phone market remains even as it enjoys explosive growth. Apple Inc., AT&T and others have leapt into the business this year as a way to help their customers trade up to newer models more quickly.
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Under the revised rule, the average workweek has been shortened to 70 hours from 82. They must take one 30-minute break during the first eight hours of driving. And the required 34-hour break between workweeks now must extend over two nights, including the hours between 1 a.m. and 5 a.m.
Those changes are proving more disruptive because they are added on to existing requirements that limit drivers to driving 11 hours a day and require them to rest a consecutive 10 hours.

Eagle Ford: A Stacked Play Like The Bakken -- Surprised? Not Me

Richard Zeits over at SeekingAlpha:
The Eagle Ford may soon become yet another major shale play in the U.S. to be developed using stacked laterals in more than one horizon.
So far, operators in the play have targeted only one "landing zone" within the Eagle Ford for the placement of horizontal wells. In those areas where the Eagle Ford is thick, this landing zone has often been chosen closer to the bottom of the formation, in the Lower Eagle Ford (the shale's thickness varies across the play, from less than 100 feet to over 350 feet; lateral placement also varies depending on the geology in each specific location).
Most recently however, some operators are suggesting that in those areas where the formation is thicker, the Eagle Ford may be successfully developed by placing laterals simultaneously in the Lower Eagle Ford and the Upper Eagle Ford, similar to how this is being done in the Three Forks interval in the Williston Basin. While the benefit of gaining additional economic drilling locations within the same acreage is obvious, another important (and less trivial) upside the industry is focusing on is the potential "synergy" between adjacent fracture stimulations. 
The hope is that the overlapping and intertwined fracture networks from wells located in the Upper Eagle Ford and Lower Eagle Ford would provide a EUR uplift for all wells in the array.

Random Update On KOG's Scanlan, Pankowski, King Wells In Truax

Hastily done; could be errors
  • 18770, 819, KOG, Scanlan 3-5H, Truax, t9/10; cum 181K 9/13;
  • 20857, 358, KOG, Pankowski 4-6H,  Truax, t2/12; cum 114K 9/13;
  • 20856, 1,349, KOG, King 3-8H, Truax, t1/12; cum 84K 9/13;
These are the only three wells in each of three drilling units (one well in each drilling unit).

The siting of two of these wells are somewhat unusual (not as long as they could have been if sited slightly farther to the northwest corners):







Baytex

At the sidebar at the right, I break out the various Bakken operators for easier access. I have, up until now, not included Baytex. It was grouped with "other producers."

Today, I add Baytex to the sidebar at the right.

Baytex:

Wells Coming Off The Confidential List Thursday; Baytex Wells In Northwest North Dakota With Some Ambiguity

Wells coming off the confidential list Thursday:
  • 22112, 233, Petro-Hunt, Fredrickson 160-94-33D-28-3H, North Tioga, t10/13; no production data,
  • 23366, drl, CLR, Atlanta Federal 7-6H, Baker, no production data,
  • 23893, drl, Slawson, Mauser (Federal) 1-18-17TFH, North Fork, no production data,
  • 24999, 535, Baytex, J. Olson 22-15-162-98H-2DM, Blooming Prairie, t5/13; cum 36K 9/13;
  • 25284, drl, Hess, SC-Barney 154-98-1819H-3, Truax, no production data,
With regard to #24999, I am not sure what "DM" means. According to the well file, the Three Forks was the target. There are three 2-well pads sited in that section, 22-162-98. It appears that on each 2-well pad, one horizontal will go north into Blooming Prairie, and one will go south into Whiteaker.

These are the wells:
  • 22019, going south, 1,116, Baytex, Judith Olson 27-34-162-98H-1XN, Three Forks, 40 stages, 1.8 million lbs, t812; cum 107K 9/13;
  • 22020, going north, 239, Baytex, Judith Olson 22-15-162-98H 1NC, Three Forks, 40 stages, 1.8 million lbs, t8/12; cum 74K 9/13;
  • 24999, going north, conf, Baytex, J. Olson 22-15-162-98H 2DM, producing,
  • 24690, going south, conf, Baytex, J. Olson 27-34-162-98H 2XM, Three Forks, producing,
  • 24776, going south, conf, Baytex, Sandvol 27-34-12-98H 3XQ, Three Forks, producing,
  • 25003, going north, conf, Baytex, Sandvol 22-15-162-98H 3PA, producing,
With regard to 1XN, 1NC, 2DM, 2XM, 3XQ, 3PA, no clue. Obviously the number refers to the pad, so 1XN and 1NC are on the same pad. The "X" wells all go south, but the D, N, and P designations are ??? and all go north.

From #24690, "The Baytex Energy team identifies one six foot thick target zone directly above the Three Forks Shale. The top of this target zone is identified by a gamma marker known as the Three Forks 10 Mrk." A similar statement was found in other reports varying from four feet to six feet.

I thought it sounded like Baytex was talking about two "target zones" in these well files, but I don't understand all that I am reading. From #22019, "The Baytex Energy team identifies a 11 and a half foot thick secondary target zone directly above the Three Forks 10 Marker and a primary target, five and a half feet thick, from the Three Forks 10 Marker to the top of the Three Forks Shale. The top of this Three Forks 10 zone is identified by a gamma market known as the Three Forks 10 marker."

It seems in all cases Baytex was targeting Three Forks 10 Marker but also noted a secondary target aone above this target (Three Forks 20 Marker?). 

Bottom line: these are all Three Forks wells which make sense due to the location (northwest North Dakota where the Three Forks might be better than the middle Bakken. All wells seem to target the same Three Forks zone, but it sounds like there is a secondary target zone above the primary target zone. [I have limited time, energy, and interest to sort it out; if anyone figures it out, others will be appreciative. It would shed light on the Upper Three Forks in this area.]