This Should Be Bullish For The Market -- July 27, 2025

Locator: 48696TARIFFS.

Ten biggest winners.

US farmers are also huge winners with the trade deals with the EU and Japan.

The US and the EU reach a trade deal.

On April 7, 2025, my thoughts on how the Trump 2025 tariff / trade talks play out. I would have to say, I called it just about right. LOL. 

That was a very long blob but it ended with:

• Who gets left holding the bag: China or the EU?

It turns out that EU was the last major country / region to make a deal. China and US had reached a deal earlier. 

Whoo-hoo!

I don't recall anyone else calling the trade talks as early as April 7th!

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The Energy Story: US-EU Trade Deal

Apparently the 30-second elevator speech will be this:

President Donald Trump announced a sweeping trade agreement with the European Union (EU) on Sunday, setting a baseline 15 percent tariff on European imports — including automobiles — while keeping existing 50 percent duties on steel and aluminum in place. As part of the deal, the EU committed to purchasing $750 billion in U.S. energy products.

$750 billion trends toward $1 trillion.

Timing is everything.

The deal will help the EU pivot away from Russian natural gas.

Details to follow.

In a sidebar to a reader following the energy news being reported regarding the US-EU deal:

Yes, everyone talked about "tariffs."  In fact, Trump had a bigger vision -- the entire "trade balance" which was so much bigger than simply tariffs. I spoke to that several times.

CNBC folks concentrated on "tariffs."  That was a big piece of it, especially on countries with which trading balances were not a big deal, but where regulations, outright hostility, huge trading imbalances, the tariffs were just a small part of the overall trading picture.

Much more important, especially long term, is bringing jobs back to the US (a lot of domestic and foreign auto manufacturers are expanding in the US) and shipping huge amounts of natural gas to foreign countries. If the EU is locking in a huge amount of natural gas from the US, it means that there could be a relative shortage for this natural gas for other countries or they will pay higher prices.

I would argue that the Trump administration has "won" a lot, especially for the American worker. And, Trump was smart not to let this drag on, getting this settled in the first six months of his presidency.

All things being equal, this should be incredibly bullish for American stock market tomorrow.