US Crude Oil, Natural Gas Reserves At All-Time High -- EIA -- May 1, 2024

Locator: 47117PEAKOIL.

Tag: Hubbert, Hubbert's

I find this is absolutely fascinating and I've not seen folks like Charles Kennedy weigh in on this yet. But a few days ago the EIA reported that US crude oil and natural gas reserves had it a record high -- and it wasn't by just a little. It was a huge increase over the past decade.

And yet, not much was made of the fact that Saudi's published reserves have not changed (in other words, not increased) in that same time period. I trust the EIA data / estimate for the US, although my hunch it is a conservative estimate. I do not trust Saudi's numbers.

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Original Post

Locator: 47099B.

Link here. This absolutely destroys "Hubbert's peak theory." But we knew this years ago.

Now, back to the EIA charts. The EIA link is here.

It seems the EIA was concentrating on the one-year change from 2021 to 2022. 

The bigger story is the "Bakken revolution" -- a metonym for the US shale revolution which began slowly in 2000 in Montana Bakken and then took off in 2007 in the North Dakota Bakken. The Bakken reached its stride in 2012 at which time the Permian began to take off.

So, let's run the numbers based on the graphs.

Crude oil:

• 2000: 22 billion bbls
• 2007: 20 billion bbls (an actual decrease, y/y)
• 2012: parabolic to 30 billion bbls -- up 50% between 2007 and 2012 -- five years
• 2013: peak up to that year -- 40 billion bbls, doubled in thirteen years (from 2000)

In this same time period, Saudi Arabia's reserves remained constant.

• 2015 - 2016: another record set, 48 million bbls
• 2022: trending toward 50 million bbls -- which would represent an increase from 20 million bbls in 2005 to 50 million bbls in 2022 -- is that a 150% increase over seventeen years?

Again, in the same period, Saudi Arabia's reserves remained constant.

This is what bothers me, surprises me, irritates me -- the EIA focused on a one-year change, from 2021 to 2022. Yes, they showed the graphics, but the real story is the 150% increase in US crude oil reserves in half my investing lifetime.

Natural gas?

• from a low of 190 TCF in the 1990s to 700 TCF in 2022
• (700 - 190) / 190 = 2.68 = a 268% jump in reserves.

Holy mackerel. 

I often make simple arithmetic errors and I often misread reports; if any of this is important to you, go to the source. 

Can you imagine what the numbers would have been had we had a national government that actually supported the crude oil / natural gas industry?