WSJ: "50%, Is In Effect, A Coin Flip" -- October 15, 2023

Locator: 45786ECON.

I have a dozen or more posts in draft status. In a few minutes, I will post them.

For now, the headlines and/or stories that caught my attention this morning were two:

China: the era of China's global dominance is over. Look at the URL. 

Recession: consensus view -- recession is no longer the consensus view. Agree completely; the Fed has quit raising rates and this will cause tech to soar; EVs may recover. Link here. Did you all see Jamie Dimon's JPM's numbers? Holy mackerel. And some (like Charlie Munger) have said we are already in a recession. Needs to visit Texas. Changes in latitude, changes in attitude.

From the linked article:

Economists are turning optimistic on the U.S. economy.

They now think it will skirt a recession, the Federal Reserve is done raising interest rates and inflation will continue to ease. In the latest quarterly survey by The Wall Street Journal, business and academic economists lowered the probability of a recession within the next year, from 54% on average in July to a more optimistic 48%.

That is the first time they have put the probability below 50% since the middle of last year. The median probability was 50%, in effect a coin flip.

But it wasn't 50%; it was "a more optimistic 48%." I find it amazing the writers had to explain to WSJ readers that 50% was, "in effect," a coin flip. Okay.

If I lose the first coin flip, I'll ask for best of three.

Then best of five. 

LOL.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 

All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them.  

Again, all my posts are done quickly. There will be typographical and content errors in all my posts. If any of my posts are important to you, go to the source.

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Bonus Feature Story
EV Sales -- The WSJ

Link here.

From the linked article:

The auto industry’s push to boost sales of electric vehicles is running into a cold, hard reality: buyers’ interest in these models is proving shallower than expected.

While EV sales continue to grow—rising 51% this year through September—the rate has slowed from a year earlier and unsold inventory is starting to pile up for some brands.

Some car companies, such as Ford Motor F -1.58%decrease; and Toyota Motor -2.16%decrease;  are tempering their expectations for EVs and shifting more resources into hybrids, which have been drawing consumers at a faster clip.

If these numbers continue to worsen, the longer the UAW remains on strike, the more likely Ford will pull back some of its already generous offers.