Rivian And Lucid -- Tickers -- One Year Out -- October 15, 2023

Locator: 45787EVS.Updates

Later, 12:52 p.m. CT: the way I see it -- with regard to EVs.

There are multiple global markets:

• China, Europe, and the US.
• I only "follow" the US EV market to any extent. I am really only interested in the US market.

There are two EV segments in the US:

• Tesla
• the rest.

If one wants, one can break that down to the following EV segments in the US:

• Tesla:
• becoming quite stodgy;

• "cheap" cars for the masses, the Chevy Bolt; manufacture for: 
• those who cannot afford a second car;
  
• those who cannot afford an EV in the first place; 
• those who live in apartment complexes with limited access to charging; 
• those who cannot install their own charging units; 
• in other words, an EV sector with few buyers;
  

• sedans and SUVs: $70,000 cars; think Polestar, Lucid Air
  
• a second or third car for the very well-to-do; 
• will buy their "first," but won't buy a second
• luxury pickup trucks: DOA

• pickup trucks: the Ford F-150 Lightning
  
• luxury: $85,0000
• under-powered / lack of range for "real" work -- well documented
• really, "for show only" -- for the "rhinestone cowboy" to coin a phrase
  
• luxury sedans and race cars: the Ferrari's
• $100,00+
• quick: when you go out and about today, count the number of Ferrari's you see
  

Original Post

Before we get started, posted earlier as a top story for the week:

• UAW strike in its fourth week
• race to see who can idle the most workers the fastest: management (layoffs); union (strike)

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Lordstown

Lordstown is bankrupt.

Link here, August 15, 2023. 

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Lucid-Saudi

Lucid-Saudi:

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Rivian

Rivian, recent timeline:

Rivian, October 10, 2023:

Rivian, October 6, 2023:

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Reality

Link here.

From the linked article:

The auto industry’s push to boost sales of electric vehicles is running into a cold, hard reality: buyers’ interest in these models is proving shallower than expected.

While EV sales continue to grow—rising 51% this year through September—the rate has slowed from a year earlier and unsold inventory is starting to pile up for some brands. 

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Earlier

Ford and GM: previously discussed. From Barron's:

From the Barron's article:

• with regard to EVs, a short lede with the good news; then --
• the bad news
• EV inventory building; demand dropping;
• inventories are running at 97 days of demand; compared with 57 days for traditional vehicles
• OEM's survived two years of Covid-19 lock down; the UAW strike won't last that long
• winter coming -- bad news for EVs for two reasons
• overall auto sales drop in dead of winter
• winter can cut range of EVs by 25%
  
• sales growth:
• F:
• US EV sales rose 6% y/y (through August)
• Tesla:
• US EV sales rose 30% over same time period
• geography:
• California: EV sales could account for 23% of new sales (wow!)
• Michigan and Ohio: same data point -- 3% (huge ouch)
• both GM and F have lots of assembly plants and employees in Michigan, Ohio
• locals aren't rushing to buy EVS: cold weather can cut EV range by 25%
• EV industry is well out of the early-adoption phase
• poll: all things being equal -- price and range; would you rather buy:
• a Tesla
• a Ford EV
• if you answered Ford EV, you are not paying attention
• like the Barbie movie, let's ask the question again
  
• poll: all things being equal -- price and range; would you rather buy:
• a Tesla
• a Ford EV

Why much is at risk if they "drag their feet." Auto manufacturers, global: I had never seen this graphic before. It's really quite astounding when you think about it. 

And again, one has to ask, how did do many companies get so much wrong. Ferrari with a market cap greater than both Ford and GM (individually, not combined). And Mercedes Benz with a larger market cap than VW, the biggest auto company in the world (by other measures) -- needs to be fact-checked. This graphic is nice to have for the archives. We can check market cap again after the UAW strike is resolved, and again in five years.

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All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them.  

Again, all my posts are done quickly. There will be typographical and content errors in all my posts. If any of my posts are important to you, go to the source.