Huge Correction -- Permian, Bakken, Eagle Ford To Set "Recent" Production Records In November -- Doesn't Get Me Excited -- October 17, 2022

Updates

Later, 12:50 a.m. CT, October 18, 2022: the data below, said to have come from the EIA, was so incredibly wrong, it's been bothering me all night. It was so bad, I took a screenshot of the article so folks would know it was not my error. 

The EIA apparently stated "total U.S. crude oil output is expected to increase by 104K bbl/day to more than 9.1M bbl/day in November, its highest since March 2020.

That can't possibly be correct. US crude oil production is well over 11 million bopd.

Here's the screen shot:
 

First, here's actual US oil production. Data is current through July, 2022. In July, 2022, total US crude oil production was 11,800,000 bopd (11.8 million bopd).

So, what's the deal? Here's the deal:

9.1 million bopd iis not total US oil production. That's onshore production only from seven major regions in the lower 48 states. Total US oil production is now 11.8 million bopd, still down from the peak of 13 million set in November, 2019.

Wow, talk about frustrating when "someone" (SeekingAlpha or the EIA) can't even get basic data ccrrect. In this case, it was SeekingAlpha. The EIA report would have spelled this out correctly. 

Original Post 

From SeekingAlpha today:

• oil production in the Permian Basin is forecast to rise by ~50K bbl/day to a record 5.45M bbl/day in November, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said Monday in its latest productivity report. 
• total U.S. crude oil output is expected to increase by 104K bbl/day to more than 9.1M bbl/day in November, its highest since March 2020, the EIA report said. 
• the EIA also sees oil output in the Bakken shale rising by 22K bbl/day to 1.19M bbl/day next month, the most since December 2020, and 
• in the Eagle Ford shale adding 18K bbl/day to 1.22M bbl/day, its highest since April 2020. 
• with oil "on the verge of exploding higher," Chevron (CVX) and Devon Energy (DVN) are two "top-tier picks," Leo Nelissen writes in an analysis published recently on Seeking Alpha.

"Exploding higher": I believe the analyst is talking about the price of oil "exploding higher," not that production would surge. 

Let's do the percentage change:

• 104K bbl/day to more than 9.1M bbl/day in November:
• 104,000 / 9,000,000 = 104 / 9,000 = 1% -- doesn't get me excited
• 22,000 / 1,000,000 = 22 / 1,000 = 2% -- doesn't get me excited
• that 104,000 bopd -- compare that to the Biden administration releasing 10x that amount the past six months, one million bopd released
• the good news: I thought there were recent reports that Permian production had peaked

********************
Back to the Bakken

Active rigs : 43.

No new permits.

Three permits renewed:

• Whiting (2); two Klose Federal permits, McKenzie County;
• Sinclair: a Bighorn permit in Dunn County

One producing well (a DUC) reported as completed:

• 37367, 558, Petro-Hunt, Jorgenson 158-94-2B-11-3H,