On February 9, 2022, looking at global crude oil production, I wrote the following:
- Historically: higher prices have led to increased production; groups to watch as oil trends toward $90 / bbl:
- first tier:
- US
- US shale operators
- US offshore (ex: Guyana)
- Russia
- Saudi Arabia
- second tier:
- OPEC - some Africa (outside Saudi Arabia, Russia, Libya)
- Iran: in second tier only if one believes Biden will lift sanctions
- Mexico: I'm being generous not moving Mexico to background noise
- Canada: without Keystone XL and adequate seaports, pretty much flat-lined production;
- background noise:
- Ecuador -- not OPEC
- some Africa including Libya -- OPEC
Being reported today:
PEMEX: previously reported that Pemex would begin curtailing exports of crude oil this year, and completely end exports in 2023. There may have been an explanation and, if so, it just got worse. From Bloomberg: forecasts now suggest that Mexico will have to import crude oil to produce enough fuel for its own country.
So, not only is Mexico moving from being an exporter of crude oil but now becoming an importer of crude oil.
From February 13, 2022, this is what conventional oil production in terminal decline looks like, graphic might have been drawn by Hubbert:
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