Distillate Fuel -- August 27, 2020

 From last month, July 22, 2020, Reuters:

U.S. crude oil and distillate inventories rose unexpectedly and fuel demand slipped last week, the Energy Information Administration said on Wednesday, as a sharp outbreak in coronavirus cases hit U.S. consumption. [As a sharp outbreak in coronavirus cases hit US consumption? Say what? The coronavirus pandemic has been going on since at least March, 2020, in US.]

U.S. crude production ticked higher and refined products supplied, a proxy for fuel demand, declined. The market has recovered from the doldrums of April, when U.S. prices briefly dropped to more than negative-$40 a barrel, as producers trimmed supply due to a slump in demand amid lockdowns to control the pandemic. [The "-$40/bbl" has become a meme -- in reality it was an anomaly reflecting the imperfections, the chaos, the imbalances of an energy revolution. The issue was quickly resolved.]

Crude inventories rose 4.9 million barrels in the week to July 17 to 536.6 million barrels, compared with analysts’ expectations in a Reuters poll for a 2.1 million-barrel drop. Production rose to 11.1 million barrels per day, up 100,000 bpd.

Distillate stockpiles, which include diesel and heating oil, rose 1.1 million barrels to 177.9 million barrels, their highest since December 1982, data showed. Analysts had expected a 618,000-barrel drop.

Can anyone really take any of this seriously? Do folks really think analysts have such incredible precision, such incredible crystal balls? Distillate in storage is trending toward 200 million bbls; week-over-week, inventories rose by 1.1 million bbls (1.1 / 176.8 = 0.6% increase week-over-week). But even worse, the forecast was for a change of 618,000 bbls from 176.8 million = 0.3% change.

The takeaway is simply this: US distillate stockpiles are at their highest since 1982, almost forty years ago, Ronald Reagan was in his second year of his eight-year presidency. And this week, the US distillate inventory rose once again.