Notes From All Over, Part 1 -- December 17, 2019

Hard to stop a train: video at this url -- https://www.foxnews.com/us/new-hampshire-climate-activists-seen-in-video-trying-to-block-freight-train-hauling-coal-tweet-claims.

Ford: keeping America great. Ford will invest $1.45 billion in two metro-Detroit auto plants; hire 3,000 more people: SUVs, pickup trucks, and EVs. Note: if SUVs are on truck chassis, it is my understanding the automotive CAFE standards do not apply. I could be wrong.

Doing what they can:

• Sanders: resist!
• Buttigieg: change course!
• Pocahontas: here's the thing ...
• Biden: what just happened?
• Hillary: recalculating ... recalculating ... recalculating.

Boeing's decision: the nuclear option. BA fell 15% yesterday; pre-market trading looks like it might fall another 1%. [Later, at opening falls another $1.00 or so, but as much as $4.00 down before it "recovered."] [Later, Boeing removes Boeing 737 MAX from schedule until April, 2020.] The Boeing 737 MAX story is tracked here.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, career, travel, job, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

Recession? What recession: PowerLine.

Note: I would assume there's a difference among: recession; slow growth; market pullback; profit-taking; correction; bear market; and, crash. And, then, of course, we haven't even begun to talk about duration, time span.

Boris: kicking the can down the road. Now says, "Brexit, deal-or-no-deal, by December 31, 2020." That's more than a year from now and on that news the British pound slumps.

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The Market

Nose-bleed levels. Thoughts about where market will be February 15, 2020. One of three things will be true: the major indices will be higher, lower, or about the same as they are now, on February 15, 2020.

• Headwinds: 
• 4Q19 earnings will be reported between now and then
• buy on the rumor; sell on the news
• profit taking
• fear
• China-US jawboning
• Mexico pushes back on USMCA
• Tailwinds:
• most investors FOMO; eager to put their side-lined cash into their IRAs, 401(k)s as soon as they can after the first of January; tons of money ready to go into these managed accounts
• Huge unknown
• geopolitical events
• price of oil
• trending toward $70 would be incredible for the oil companies
• trending toward $50 is very possible; Saudi will do what it takes to prop prices; doubt they would launch the nuclear option (flood the world with oil if fellow OPEC members did not toe the line)

All things being equal, I think the 4Q19 earnings (a headwind) will be offset by all that money pouring into retirement accounts after the first of the year (a tailwind). 

My hunch, from where the major indices are now, December 16, 2019:

• the S&P 500 will be down 5% on February 15, 2020
• the Dow will be down 7% on February 15, 2020
• the NASDAQ will be down 10% on February 15, 2020

Personal: as always, I remain fully invested but for the first time ever that I can recall, I am purposely selling some non-dividend shares to buy dividend-paying shares; commission-free trades have changed everything.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, career, travel, job, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

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Reflections

Lion And Mouse

A Lioness Ready To Burst Out

Olivia, 13 years old, was challenged, as part of a middle school are contest, to create something to "reflect" her self-image, or something to that effect. Her collage has been selected to compete at the next level. This is a collage, not a painting or drawing.