You Want To See Sparks Fly This Week? This Would Do It -- July 28, 2019

This has been so baked into the market and into the American collective consciousness for so long, that if the Fed does not cut rates this week, folks in California are going to hear screams of pain all the way from the corner of South Main and West Wall sometime Wednesday afternoon.

Link here.

Did someone say the Fed cut rate eight times in eight quarters while Obama was president?

Under Trump, none.

This will be the first rate cut in a decade according to the link.

I'm almost hoping the Fed doesn't cut rates just to see the tweets that will emanate from the West Wing bathroom.

Having said that, I'm not a bit convinced a rate cut is needed. Seriously.

A few months ago I would have argued differently; things looked a bit rough.

But the first estimate for 2Q19 GDP coming in at 2.1 doesn't seem all that bad. Not great but ...

... my reading of RV sales, for example, suggests no recession in the near term.

It looks like the markets are moderately concerned ... futures are all down a bit tonight.

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By the way, if the Fed cuts rates by a half-a-point (rather than a quarter percent), that will be scary. That tells me the Fed interprets RV sales as foreshadowing a recession by the end of the year.

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Speaking of RVs. How are the boaters doing in/on Lake Mead? Glad you asked.

Lake Mead's water level rose by another 0.04 feet yesterday. I can't make this stuff up. See the link.

0.04 feet.

0.04 x 12 = 0.48 inches.

The lake is almost 1,100 feet deep, and their instruments are sensitive and accurate enough to measure a half-inch change in depth.

Of course, having said that, oil companies are operating with similar precision two miles deep in the Bakken.