Monday, May 15, 2017

Could we see 4% GDP 2Q17? -- May 15, 2017

A 4% GDP for 2Q17 is obviously a bridge too far, but if we actually hit 3.6% it might feel like 4% after the past eight years.

From GDPNow:
Latest forecast: 3.6 percent — May 12, 2017
The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2017 is 3.6 percent on May 12, unchanged from May 9.
The forecast for second-quarter real consumer spending inched up from 2.7 percent to 2.8 percent after this morning's retail sales release from the U.S. Census Bureau and this morning's Consumer Price Index report from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
The forecast for second-quarter real government spending growth fell from 0.1 percent to -0.4 percent following the Monthly Treasury Statement issued yesterday by the U.S. Bureau of the Fiscal Service.

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