Tuesday, November 29, 2016

Trump Not Even In Office Yet But US Consumer Confidence At 9-Year High; US GDP Growth Revised Up To Strongest Expansion In Two Years -- WSJ -- November 29, 2016

US consumer confidence at 9-year high. Bloomberg.  Data points:
  • highest level since 2007: Obama sworn in, January, 2009 -- wow, wow, wow
  • consumer confident increased to 107.1 from a revised 100.8
  • forecast was 101.5
  •  present conditions gauge rose to 130.3, highest since July, 2007, from 123.1
Now that is something President-elect Trump should tweet tomorrow morning at 5:00 a.m. Central Time, just as MSNBC "Morning Joe" is coming on the air.

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Healthy Upward Revision In US 3Q16 GDP

Link here. Data points:
  • 3Q16 revised upward to 3.2%
  • strongest growth in two years
  • analysts' forecast: 3.0% from initial estimate of 2.9%
  • accelerated from the 2Q16 "more modest" 1.4%
Meanwhile, looking ahead, GDP Now for 4Q16: 3.6%, unchanged from previous forecast.

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US Home Prices Set New Record Amid Healthy Sales

US News. Data links:
  • home prices slightly above the peak it set in July, 2006 
  • prices rose 5.5% from a year earlier (September data)
  • the milestone comes after almost four years of gains
  • largest gains: Seattle, Portland, Denver -- 
  • those gains in Seattle, Portland, Denver? Those cities have the distinction of reporting the largest annual gains for the eighth straight month
  • cities where home prices still remain far below their pre-recession peaks: Miami, Tampa, Phoenix, and Las Vegas 
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The Market

There have been nine trading days since the Trump election (one was a half day). To the best of my knowledge there were only two down days: one was trivial (down about 30 points) and the other not much worse (about 60 points down).

It looks like we might have another "up" day on the market today.

Dow 30:
  • New highs: 99, including Aetna, Boeing, Humana, MDU.
  • New lows: 20.

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