UNP: The Post Mortem; Anticipating AAPL -- January 21, 2021

UNP:

• Motley Fool: Union Pacific continues to dial up its rail productivity.
• Zacks: UNP 4Q20 earnings surpass estimates; rise y/y;
• The Street: UNP falls despite strong quarter;
• FXEmpire: UNP beat Wall Street estimates; buy with target price of $235;
• Reuters: UNP shares fall amid concern over economy, Covid-19 vaccine rollout;

AAPL: Apple forecasted to report record-breaking quarter next week with revenue topping $100 billion. Link here. 

• current record: 1Q20 (one year ago, the Oct - Dec, holiday quarter): $91.8 billion;
• current quarter: 1Q21 (one year later, the Oct - Dec, holiday quarter); forecast: $100 billion+;
• one analyst: $105.2 billion
• another analyst: $108.2 billion
• "iPhone 12 as Apple's most successful product launch in the last five years"
• earnings report will be released at 1:30 p.m. PT Wednesday next week, January 27, 2021;

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Commentary: Day 1

Addendum, 11:45 p.m. CT: this does not bode well. What a mess. And it's just "day 1." Japan has already bought enough vaccine to vaccinate everyone of its citizens. The US, not so much:

Addendum, 10:14 p.m. CT: 

After the original note below, I went back and looked at twitter. The comments all confirm what I'm thinking. Killing the Keystone and banning new leasing on federal land (banning fracking, say some) makes it appear that China is writing the "Build Back Better" plan for the new CEO/CIC.

The Bismarck Tribune's editorial staff clearly supported Joe Biden. It will be interesting to see that same editorial staff comment on banning new leasing on federal land, which accounts for about a third of North Dakota production and about 100% of ND Amerindian income.

Posted, 9:45 p.m. CT.

For investors:

I think the UAL 4Q20 earnings report is the tipping point. United Airlines reported yesterday, I believe; the earnings call was this morning; link here. 

My impression: "everyone" knew the UAL earnings report was going to be bad; "everyone" was ignoring it, hoping that "we" were through the worst of it. Two takeaways from the earnings call:

• the fallout from Covid-19 was much worse than anything UAL had planned for (see linked story); and,
• UAL guidance suggested it would get worse before it gets better

That's where I was shortly after the earnings call this morning. As the day went on, it felt more ominous.

The second shoe dropped as they say. 

Dr Fauci, given free rein, at a wide-ranging news conference, admitted that it would not be at least until autumn, 2021, that things might be "better." That's another eight to ten months. I don't believe him. Things might be better in August but I don't think the "all clear" sign will be given by then. He did not imply that but a lot of folks are inferring that.

The "100 million vaccinated" in 100 days is malarkey. We are already at that rate, vaccinating just short of one million / day. If we fail to vaccinate 100 million in 100 days, it will be a huge "fail." Regardless, the "100 million vaccinated in 100 days" is a very, very low bar considering we were already vaccinating at that rate. 

Apparently Amazon discovered some software code that will help expedite vaccinating the nation. After the new CEO/CIC was sworn in, Amazon said they could help the vaccination drive. 

It bothers me that those who should be good at numbers still can't do simple arithmetic. Today, on CNBC, the CNBC analyst charged with the Covid-19 story noted that "100 million vaccinated in 100 days" is still not enough. With breathless reporting, the CNBC analyst said that "100 million was less than half of the US population." Well that's true, but in fact, it's less than one-third of the US population. The US population is 330 million in round numbers. 

The jobless report this morning was worse this morning than expected. And that was before the new CEO/CIC added hundreds of thousands with high-paying jobs to the unemployment rolls when he revoked the Keystone XL permit and banned new oil and gas leasing on federal lands. According to sources the pipeline operator is already sending out dismissal notices.

It will take a day or two for pundits to start asking the question if this is the right time to be cutting jobs in America, especially high-paying jobs. Of course there is an even bigger question but we'll let that go for now because that's a bridge too far for some. 

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China Flu Watch

Vaccinations doses distributed / vaccinations given (per cent shots used)

January 20, 2021 (Johns Hopkins-MIT-WSJ)
35,990, 150 / 16,525,281 (45.9)

Today, January 21, 2021 (Bloomberg)
37,960,000 / 18,449,288 (48.6)

Futures? trending lower.