Director's Cut -- April, 2020, Data

Updates

June 13, 2020: a reader provided this assessment of the decline in US crude oil production:

No surprise with the decline in production of oil in USA.
-Shale wells decline rate of 6-8% per month.
-Rig count down for horizontal rig count down by 70+ percent
-Horizontal wells deplete ~70% on first year on average.
-Some wells shut in due to low spot price. Generally transport costs are fixed by pipeline increasing breakeven price to oil producer.
-Bankers will not be willing to loan $$$ to oil production companies unless you see solid $50+ oil prices.
-Shale oil production is more than 50% of oil production in USA.
-Large and small oil are cutting spending for shale, but keeping the long term projects going. One can drill and complete a shale well in months, not years.

Oil in storage is no surprise.
-Looking at EIA data, most of oil in storage increase is on Gulf Coast PADD 3. Other areas are even to down. https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/weekly/crude.php#menu
-IMHO the contango purchased oil is being delivered to California and Gulf coast.
-Tanker rates have decreased for both spot and long term charters indicating that the contango oil is being delivered.

IMHO price of crude should be in the $50s in a few months due to contango deliveries and continued reduction of oil production due to drilling downturn. Before shale oil a legacy oil will drilled vertically would typically decline 10-15% per year, unlike 70% for a shale well.

Original Post

Disclaimer: usual disclaimer applies. As usual, this is done very, very quickly. It is not proofread. There will be factual and typographical errors on this page. If this is important to you, go to the source. It is generally updated in segments, so until the entire report is completed, there may be old data still present. 
Link here.

Month-over-month crude oil production decreased by 14.8% ... Saudi Surge / destruction demand due to Wuhan flu.

Comments:

• second month that "global economy" really started to tank due to Wuhan flu;
• completions: huge drop in the number of completions -- down to 58 completions (preliminary) compared to 120 the month before; but similar to a month before that, 57 in February, 2020;
• as a reminder, completions dropped from 70 wells in January, to a meager 57 wells in February (average 2.258 wells/day vs 1.966 wells/day); the greatest amount of oil produced by a Bakken well is in its first full six months after being fracked; a decrease in the number of completed wells is historically problematic;
• DUCs decreased by almost 3%; the greatest amount of oil produced by a Bakken well is in its first full six months after being fracked; a large number of DUCs were completed but that could not offset the number of new completions, 58, vs 120 in the previous month, March, 2020;
• so, DUCs decreased from 972 to 944 month-over-month but number of new wells completed plummeted from 120 (March, 2020) to 58 (April, 2020);

Disclaimer: As usual, this is done very, very quickly. It is not proofread. There will be content and typographical errors on this page. I need to check the figures later. If this is important to you, go to the source.

The Director's Cut

Data For April, 2020

North Dakota Oil and Natural Gas Production

Disclaimer: usual disclaimer applies. As usual, this is done very, very quickly. It is not proofread. There will be factual and typographical errors on this page. If this is important to you, go to the source.

Link here to past reports.

DUCs and wells off-line for operational reasons are tracked here.

A huge, huge "thank you" to Lynn Helms and his staff at the NDIC getting this information out in a timely and transparent manner. I am not aware of any other state that does such a good job providing such data.
 
Crude oil production:

• April, 2020, preliminary: 1,219,086 ( (96% from the Bakken/Three Forks; 4% from legacy pools)
• previous months:
• March, 2020, final: 1,430,107 bopd
• February, 2020, final: 1,451,681 bopd
• January, 2020, final: 1,430,511 bopd (all-time time was November, 2019)
• December, 2019, final: 1,476,777 bopd
• November, 2019, final:1,519,037 bopd -- new all-time high after final figures come in;
• revenue forecast: 1.4 million bopd
• October, 2019, final: 1,517,936 bopd -- previous all-time high
• September, 2019, final, 1,443,980 bopd -- very, very wet September that impacted oil fields
• August, 2019, final, 1,480,475 bopd (previous all-time high)
• July, 2019, final: 1,445,934 bopd (previous all-time high)
• June, 2019, final: 1,425,230 bopd (previous all-time high)
• month-over-month, bbls: decreased by 2,110,021  (April, 2020 -- March, 2020)
• month-over-month, percent: -14.8%  (April, 2020 - March, 2020)

Gas production:

• April, 2020, preliminary: 2,712,168 MCF/day
• March, 2020, final: 3,128,393 MCF/day; 87% capture;
• February, 2020, final: 3,109,750 MCF/day; 87% capture;
• Previous months: 
• January, 2020, final: 3,019,938 MCF/day; 84% capture rate (improved, month-over-month)
• December, 2019, final: 3,061,412 MCF/day; 84% capture rate (improved, month-over-month)
• November, 2019, final: 3,165,585MCF/day; new all-time high on a per-day basis; all time on a monthly basis, October, 2019)
• 83% capture
• October, 2019, final: 3,070,616 MCF/day
• 81% capture
• September, 2019, final: 2,946,391 MCF/day (note -- fell below the 3-billion threshold previously reported)
• August , 2019, final: 3,014,419 MCF/day -- an all-time high
• July, 2019, final: 2,944,816 MCF/day
• June, 2019, final: 2,885,293 MCF/day

BOE, March, 2020, preliminary:

• April, 2020, preliminary:
• natural gas: 2,712,168 MCF/day = 451,953 boe
• crude oil: 1,219,086 bopd
• total boe, preliminary for March, 2020: 1,671,039 boepd
• all-time high, November, 2019: 2,046,547 boepd

Producing wells:

• April, 2020, preliminary: 15,465
• March, 2020, final: 16,280 -- this sets a new all-time high for producing wells
• previous high for previous wells: October, 2019: 16,169
• February, 2020, final: 16,149
• January, 2020, final; 16,014
• December, 2019, final; 16,042
• November, 2019, final: 16,110
• October, 2019, final: 16,169 (new all-time high)
• September, 2019, final: 16,115
• August, 2019, final: 15,964 (all-time high was 15,954, July 2019)
• July, 2019, final: 15,954 (another new all-time high)
• June, 2019, 15,752

Wells off-line:

• May, 2020: when I went through the May, 2020, data (as it was released in early July), it was very, very obvious that ND Bakken operators shut in their wells in May, not April).
• April, 2020, preliminary
• inactive: 2,168
• DUCs: 944
• total: 3,112 (for all that talk about all the wells coming off line, that does not appear to be true in the Bakken; operators simply drilled fewer wells)
• March, 2020, final:
• inactive: 2,161 
• DUCs: 972
• total: 3,133
• March: it makes sense that inactive wells are up; DUCs are down; when DUCs are completed, neighboring wells are shut in to protect them; 
• February, 2020, final: 
• inactive: 2,091
• DUCs: 1,027
• total: 3,118
• January, 2020, final:
• inactive: 2,607
• DUCs: 1,024
• total: 3,631
• December, 2019, final:
• inactive: 1,920
• DUCs: 958
• total: 2,878
• November, 2019, final:
• inactive: 1,726
• DUCs: 919
• total: 2,645

Permitting:

• May, 2020: 59
• April, 2020: 62 (considering all that is going on, not bad)
• March, 2020: 68
• February, 2020: 60
• January, 2020: 61
• December, 2019: 67
• November, 2019: 79
• October, 2019: 126
• September, 2019: 92
• August, 2019: 127
• July, 2019: 141
• June, 2019: 127

Rig count:

• Today: 10 (all-time high was 218 on 5/29/12)
• April, 2020: 35
• March, 2020: 52 
• February, 2020: 54
• January, 2020: 55
• December, 2019: 55
• November: 55
• October: 56
• September: 61
• August: 62
• July: 57
• June: 63

Fort Berthold Reservation data partitioned out.

Completions:

• April, 2020, preliminary: a whopping decreases from previous month; down to 58;
• March, 2020, final: a whopping 120 wells were completed in March, 2020
• February, 2020, final: 57
• January, 2020, final: 70 (revised)
• December, 2019, final: 88 (revised)
• revenue forecast: 90
• November, 2019, final: 92
• October, 2019, final: 102
• September, 2019, final: 117 (revised up from 94) (revised a second time, up from 112)
• August, 2019, final: 102
• July, 2019, final: 137
• June, 2019, 102 (revised, last month's report); revised again, now, 123
• May, 2019, 113 (final)

 Gas capture:

• statewide, captured: 88% (flat)
• statewide, captured:
• April, 2020: 2,398,014 MCF/day -- captured -- still ahead of May, 2019, which was an all-time high at that time; down 17% month-over-month;
• March, 2020: 2,711,084 MCF/day  -- final -- new all-time high
• February, 2020: 2,699,065 MCF/day (final) new all-time high
• January, 2020: 2,553,067 MCF/day (final)
• December, 2019: 2,557446 MCF/day (final)
• November, 2019: 2,594,922 MCF/day (new all-time high)
• October, 2019:  2,524,405 MCF/day
• September, 2019: 2,429,487 MCF/day
• previous all time high was May, 2019: 2,287,761 MCF/day
• FBIR Bakken:
• April, 2020: 85%
• March, 2020: 83%
• January, 2020: 83%
• December, 2019: 81%
• November, 2019: 81%
  October, 2019, captured: 70% (was 79% in September)(75% reported two months ago, August, 2019)

Off line, to end of March, 2020: 3,136 -- back in January, 2020, it was -- 3,631; 

• DUCs: 944 (down 28 from the 972 in March)
• inactive well count: 2,168 (up 7 from 2,161 in March)
• wells off line for operational reasons are tracked here;  
• if I recall correctly, December, 2019, was a fairly "mild" winter by North Dakota standards;
• January: huge jump in DUCs and inactive wells; 
• February, 2020, was a fairly mild month, as I recall; 
• March, 2020: DUCs down a bit, but inactive wells out-numbered DUCs 
• April, 2020: Saudi Surge; demand destruction; WTI plummeted in price;

A year earlier, April, 2019, the "off-line well" data:

April, 2019:

• DUCs: 962, down 6 from last report
• inactive: 1,625, down 72 from last report
• total: 2,587 (down from 2,664 last month; this represents about 1,000 more wells than will be drilled this calendar year; 2,561 is about what North Dakota will complete every three years)

Rig count:

• Today: 10
• May: 17
• April: 35
• March: 52
• February: 54