Tesla .... And The Numbers Are .... 1Q19

Updates

April 25, 2019: self-proclaimed Tesla bull says 1Q19 was one of the worse debacles he's seen in 20 years.

• Ives slashed his price target from $365 to $275
• Ives identifies himself as a “long-term bull on the Tesla story.”
• “[I]n our 20 years of covering tech stocks on the Street we view this quarter as one of top debacles we have ever seen while Musk & Co. in an episode out of the Twilight Zone act as if demand and profitability will magically return to the Tesla story,” Ives wrote.
• Although Musk said there was no need for additional capital at this juncture, Wedbush thinks Tesla “will likely have to raise $3 billion+ of capital in the near term to sustain [capital expenditure] and debt needs given its current profitability path, which is another black cloud over the name with an inexperienced CFO now at the helm,” the firm wrote.

Original Post

Tesla estimates, link here, estimates --

• for 1Q19:
• adjusted loss per share, range 64 cents to $2.60, with average at $1.30
• revenue estimate, range from $4.40 billion to $5.12 billion, with average of $4.8 billion
• automotive gross margin estimate: +17.8%
• CAPEX, range from $291 million to $625 million, with average of $508 million
• for 2Q19:
• automotive gross margin estimate: +19.5%
• CAPEX, range from $250 million to $650 million, with average of $551 million

Tesla: actual results -- in red bold --

• for 1Q19:
• adjusted loss per share, range 64 cents to $2.60, with average at $1.30 -- $2.90
• revenue estimate, range from $4.40 billion to $5.12 billion, with average of $4.8 billion -- $4.54 billion
• automotive gross margin estimate: +17.8%
• CAPEX, range from $291 million to $625 million, with average of $508 million
• cash position: $2.2 billion; reduction of $1.5 billion from 4Q18
• operating cash outflow: $919.5 million reversing a positive cash flow in 4Q18
• for 2Q19:
• automotive gross margin estimate: +19.5%
• CAPEX, range from $250 million to $6

Guidance: to paraphrase Musk Melon --

• things couldn't be better
• results 1Q19 an anomaly
• back to superior results for the rest of 2019
• meanwhile, it's more fun to talk about autonomous taxis
• let's talk insurance

In comments at the linked article,

• from Doctor R:

Tesl (sic) will rebound. Their Model 3 performance is a great car and the S and X just got some much needed upgrades. 

For a luxury car company they are doing great sales figure wise.

•  from BG:

After listening to Musk answer some pointed questions (notably the first from the JP Morgan analyst), one thing comes to mind - Enron

• no mention in the article about federal credits will come to an end this year. Did analysts bring that up in the Q&A?

Comment: I have no idea how you can spin these results -- "average" consensus, a loss of $1.30/share. In fact, a loss of almost $3.00/share.