Polar Vortex? What Polar Vortex? -- Active Rigs In North Dakota Hit Second Highest For This Date -- November 20, 2014; WMB Increases Its Dividend; BNSF Announces Increased CAPEX; Filloon On NOG; Roofs Collapsing In Western NY From Weight Of Snow

Natural gas fill rate. See this link for background. Today's number: -17. Natural gas up t $4.44; and oil up a bit today. (Dynamic links.)

Later, Reuters is reporting:

New England should have enough electricity to meet demand this winter but the natural gas pipeline constraints that caused price spikes on the coldest days last winter will be a "concern" again this year, the region's power grid operator said Thursday.

ISO New England, the grid operator, warned the region's dependence on gas puts it in a "vulnerable position" because current pipelines cannot deliver all the gas required for both heating and power generators, especially during cold weather.

Jobs: huge miss, but Reuters and Bloomberg still see silver lining. Remember, retailers are holding on to all their employees and struggling for more to meet expectations of a huge holiday season.

• Reuters link here. 
• Bloomberg link here.

Active rigs:

	11/20/2014	11/20/2013	11/20/2012	11/20/2010	11/20/2009
Active Rigs	186	185	181	159	65

[Update: an astute reader noted this (I missed it): the chart above does not include 2011 -- this was a "cut and paste" from NDIC). There were certainly more rigs on this date in 2011 than 186, so today's number of active rigs is the second highest for this date. I will correct the graphic when I get back to a corrected NDIC graph. A big "thank you" to the reader who noted this.] I assume there are factual errors or typographical errors, but it is what it is. This is all the more remarkable because North Dakota just went through the same polar vortex that the rest of the nation to the south and east of us experienced.

Four of five wells coming off confidential list today went to DRL status. BR has a huge well (see below); note -- 10,000 bbls in 7 days; all natural gas was flared; I track the Corral Creek wells here; the area does have access to the natural gas gathering pipeline system but flaring still seems to be significant.

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How Good Is The Bakken?

10,000 barrels of crude oil in seven (7) days :

• 27889, 1,992, BR, CCU Olympian 11-2MBH, Corral Creek, t9/14; cum 10K 9/14;

NDIC File No: 27889    
Well Type: OG     Well Status: A     Status Date: 9/24/2014     Wellbore type: Horizontal
Location: LOT3 2-146-94    Latitude: 47.501622     Longitude: -102.623788
Current Operator: BURLINGTON RESOURCES OIL & GAS COMPANY LP
Current Well Name: CCU OLYMPIAN 11-2MBH
Total Depth: 21007     Field: CORRAL CREEK
Spud Date(s):  5/20/2014
Completion Data
   Pool: BAKKEN     Perfs: 11183-21007     Comp: 9/24/2014     Status: F     Date: 9/29/2014     Spacing: U
Cumulative Production Data
   Pool: BAKKEN     Cum Oil: 10,223     Cum MCF Gas: 7579     Cum Water: 6790
Production Test Data
   IP Test Date: 9/29/2014     Pool: BAKKEN     IP Oil: 1,992     IP MCF: 1373     IP Water: 1008

Monthly Production Data

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	9-2014	7	10223	9933	6790	7579	0	7562

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Jobs

Now, back to the stories on first time claims for unemployment benefits. I track the weekly data here, at one time planning to quit tracking it but continued tracking it when the government admitted they manipulated the data "one week."

1. Last week's numbers were awful: they surged 12,000 applications -- well out of the ordinary.

2. It turns out last week's number was undercounted: this week it was revised upward, 3,000 more applications.

3. Expectations for this week by expert analysts: a "dip" to 285,000.

4. In fact, applications hit 291,000. So last week, the initial number was 290,000, revised upwards brings us to 293,000, and at 291,000, it essentially was "no change." The headline at Reuters: jobless claims fall; continuing claims lowest since 2000. Bloomberg headline: fewer than 300,000 in US file jobless claims for 10th week. Wow.

5. Neither article says that the continuing claims dropped because the extended benefits -- remember this? the benefits used to extend out for 99 weeks -- "ran out."

6. It's always buried, but if you look, you will find that the four-week average, less volatile (their words, not mine) actually increased to 287,500 from 285,750. I assume after folks shovel themselves out of the snow in the northeast, the claims will go up again.

7. It always takes Wall Street a few minutes / hours to digest the information. But they eventually get it right, and they know that Janet Yellen is following this data closely. Today's news is not good for the Fed. Before the jobs data was released, Dow futures were down as much as 80 points (last night); at the moment, the Dow is up slightly. If it finishes in the green, it will be the 9th or 10th day out of ten or eleven days that the Dow has been in the green, setting new records almost every day.

This is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or what you think you may have read here. Make no travel plans based on what you read here. I post quickly and frequently; typographical and factual errors are likely. If this information is important to you, go to the source.

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For Investors Only

I see WMB increased its dividend (again). It was 32.5 cents at the end of 2012. It was 56 cents in September, 2014, and now it's been increased a penny to 57 cents/share, a 4.13% yield.

 BNSF, a huge bet on the future of America: Investor's Business Daily is reporting --

Berkshire Hathaway's BNSF Railway plans to spend $6 billion in 2015 to upgrade and expand its facilities to meet rising demand for rail transportation services.

It would be a 9% increase for the Fort Worth, Texas-based company from its planned $5.5 billion capital spending this year.

The bulk of the 2015 expenditures will go to replacing and upgrading rails, ties and other track components, the company said.

The railroad will add 330 new locomotives to its fleet of 7,500 and replace others that are nearing the end of their useful life.

Filloon on NOG. 

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Back to the natural gas fill rate (first item at this post above: actually I was going to comment, but no comment is really needed. Just to go the link for the information. I had never followed the natural gas fill rate until this year, and it looks like a great year to learn about it.

Okay, this note I sent to Don:

I wrote about that once -- the huge amounts of natural gas being produced in the Marcellus and yet the rate is a negative fill rate and the New England area will still have problems. So, being the novice that I am, I pointed that out. Steve (I believe it was, but I forget) pointed out that the problem is that there is not enough pipeline to take the natural gas from the Marcellus (even though it's in their backyard) to New England, and even to neighborhoods in Pennsylvania and New York state. (New England activists protested against additional pipeline as recently as two weeks ago.)

RBN Energy talks about that at length; I think it was yesterday that they had another article on Marcellus takeaway -- and it's "all" being reversed to go to the Gulf.

They say following this polar vortex there will be a warming spell that will melt the snow, but I doubt it will be enough to melt the lake ice or do much to change the temperature of the water. And another cold spell is forecast to follow this polar vortex.

Link here to Lake Erie temperatures, which at the moment appear to be 5 - 8 degrees cooler than normal for this time of year (a dynamic link).

See also this link that a reader sent in after noting the above comments.

Last winter, gas demand and prices hit record highs because there was not enough gas available to heat homes and businesses and for power generation on the coldest days due to the pipeline constraints. That left several generators unavailable when needed most, threatening grid reliability.

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At the moment:

• the Senate voted against its own energy chairperson, all but guaranteeing another anti-Obama Senate seat (latest polling: Cassidy: 56%; Landrieu: 41%);
• oil is holding its own, even though there are rumors that OPEC won't cut production;
• active rigs in North Dakota are at their highest for this date;
• jobless data will force Janet Yellen to stay the course; and,
• it's back to warm and sunny weather in north Texas (better bike-riding weather).

What's not to like; what a great country. Even with all the free ObamaPhones.

Oh, I forgot. My Starbucks was free today -- I usually forget to take advantage of all my "free" coffees; the "stars" expire at the end of every month, I believe.   

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Three More Feet!

Global Warming, 2014 - 2015

Unnamed Autumn, 2014, Polar Vortex

The unnamed 2014 autumn polar vortex: the headlines started appearing November 11, 2014:

• Minnesota shatters snow record from 1898 -- predicted by warmists -- global warming will result in more snow 
• Arctic blasts pummels USA -- unexplained; stuff happens 
• Only six (6) states not expecting snow in coming week (and one of them may be Hawaii) 
• Winter still a month away 
• Twelve (12) years since Dallas has had two consecutive days so cold  
• Wyoming wind chill warning: 35 below  
• Central Ontario snowfall could reach 20 inches  
• Cold to freeze East  
• Shattering snowfall records in Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan -- predicted by warmists -- global warming will result in more snow 
• All 50 states brace for freezing temperatures -- November 13, 2014 
• Cold freeze moves east -- November 13, 2014 
• Denver cold shatters two records, including low temp record set in 1882 -- November 13, 2014 
• Coldest November in decades -- November 14, 2014 
• Michigan town receives one month's snow -- in one day --November 14, 2014 
• Storm dumps four (4) feet of snow on Wisconsin town -- November 14, 2014 
• Ice on Lake Superior -- almost a month early -- November 16, 2014 
• Harsh cold to set records in south, freeze northeast -- November 16, 2014
• Snow on the ground in DFW area; 27 degrees -- November 17, 2014 
• 50% of nation covered in snow -- November 17, 2014 (this was on ABC Nightly News, also)
• Most snow this early in a decade -- November 17, 2014
• Four (4) feet of snow expected in upstate New York -- November 17, 2014
• Record cold in Boise, Idaha, Monday morning, possibly again Tuesday -- November 17, 2014
• Deep freeze blankets USA -- November 18, 2014
• Coldest November morning since 1976 -- November 18, 2014
• 1,360 records shattered in one week -- November 18, 2014
• "Global warming" activists huddle together together in Capitol -- November 18, 2014
• I-90 closed in Buffalo, NY; snow -- November 18, 2014
• Buffalo, upper NY state gets slammed -- November 18, 2014
• 74 inches of snow predicted overnight in Buffalo, NY -- November 18, 2014 
• Cuoma deploys organized militia (National Guard) -- November 18, 2014 
• 7 feet of snow in upstate New York -- November 19, 2014
• Natural gas futures soar -- November 19, 2014 
•  Snow stranded in NY; 100+ trapped; man trapped in 12-ft drift -- November 19, 2014
• Supersnow, stranded in NY -- November 19, 2014
• 8 feet and counting -- November 19, 2014
• Biggest power grid hits monthly record -- November 19, 2014 
• Cuomo calls for "NFL Snowday" -- November 20, 2014
• Forecast: three more feet! -- November 20, 2014 
• All-time snowfall record? -- November 20, 2014
• Buffalo Bills - NY Jets relocated -- November 20, 2014
• 141-year-old cold record falls in Florida -- November 20, 2014
• Ice forces earliest closure EVER of upper Mississippi -- November 20, 2014

From Daily Mail today:

• Three more feet of snow is expected in Buffalo today - making it eight feet since Monday night
• Sections of the New York State Thruway remain closed 
• Some truckers and other motorists have spent three days stranded in their vehicles waiting for the road to open 
• Thundersnow is coming to Buffalo, bringing dangerous lightning strikes 
• Weekend thaw and rainstorms could cause flash flooding as snow melts rapidly 
• Roofs are collapsing across western New York from the weight of the snow 

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ObamaCare

Lies, Lies, And More Lies

Bloomberg is reporting:  Obamacare hit goal by including 400,000 unpublicized dental subscribers. My hunch is that sooner or later we will learn that an additional 1.4 million dogs and cats enrolled in veterinary clinics will eventually be included in the ObamaCare count. Big Health and Big Pharma are going to do very, very well.

[Update, White House responds: Responding to a report that the White House included dental plan sign-ups in Obamacare enrollment numbers, Secretary of Health and Human Services Sylvia Burwell writes, 'the mistake we made is unacceptable' -]

[Update, from Bloomberg: "stupid is as stupid does."

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Politics

For the first time ever, I heard the Massachusetts senator referred to as Pocahontas on talk radio at 1:28 p.m. November 20, 2014, almost a month after my first entry with that.  LOL. Makes my day. 

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Immigration

My note to Don on immigration (written before THE non-televised speech):

One of the things that has resulted from all the noise over Obama's immigration executive order, based on the bits and pieces that are being released: the most vocal immigration advocates will see that POTUS has over-promised and will under-deliver.Based on what is likely to be said, it sounds like POTUS waited way too long; all the noise, and everyone is going to be disappointed.

The GOP will be disappointed on geeky constitutional terms; the liberal Dems will be disappointed on how little is being done by POTUS. And this will be the last any president will do for quite some time.

It appears the undocumented "immigrants" will still need to go through a process. Attorneys that take them through this process will make about $5,000 / individual based on an immigration attorney I spoke with in California. She was a Hispanic lawyer, does pro bono work offering help for Latinos to get their legal documentation -- she says lawyers can easily charge $5,000 for services. And, of course, those high-priced lawyers will get their paperwork moving through the system more quickly. The good news is that folks willing to pay $5,000 are probably not your typical out-of-work terrorists. The problem is political -- with an executive order -- but that's why we have checks and balances. But at the end of the day I think the extremists are going to be very unhappy that he mostly just "legalizing" what is already occurring in the trenches. Also, many immigrants are not going to go through the process because background checks could expose many others living in their homes that are not eligible at all to be here.

This is something I've not heard discussed: an executive order, as this will be, is "clean." A bill with the very same language would have had a lot of unrelated amendments attached, mostly pork.

It is ironic, but the POTUS EO may be exactly what the GOP hoped for. The end of any more discussion on immigration in the immediate future; a "clean" bill; and simply legalizing what is already happening. Now the GOP can go back to securing the borders.

It will be interesting if I feel the same way after the NY Times prints the EO.

By the way, Nancy Pelosi's comparing this EO with the Proclamation of Emancipation is completely bogus on so many levels.

[Update, 9:58 CT, November 20, 2014: just following the speech, just as I predicted -- the most extreme immigration advocates are not happy with the POTUS immigration EO. Top story over at Yahoo!Finance right now: Obama's immigration tweaks leave Big Tech wanting more.

President Barack Obama plans to make life a little easier for some foreign tech workers, but Silicon Valley representatives are disappointed his immigration rule changes will not satisfy longstanding demands for more visas and faster green cards.

In a speech on Thursday, Obama outlined plans to use executive authority to help millions of undocumented people. He also announced minor adjustments to cut red tape for visa holders and their families, including letting spouses of certain H-1B visa holders get work permits.

 What little I've seen, this EO was all about checking off the box (✓ immigration reform) without much substance.]