Tuesday, January 17, 2012

Mike Filloon on Williston Basin EURs -- SeekingAlpha -- The Bakken, North Dakota, USA

Link to SeekingAlpha.com:

It is my impression that SeekingAlpha.com does not limit access to past articles, so at great risk of losing access tosome wonderful data, I won't "cut and paste" any of Mike's numbers/data. Go to the link to see some incredible data.

But keep a couple of things in mind when looking at these EURs:
  • when the Bakken was first making the news, I remember EURs averaged under 500 million bbls
  • EURs continue to increase
  • these EURs are, for the most part, limited to either the Bakken formation(s) or the Three Formation(s), although often the EURs encompass the entire Bakken Pool, an administrative designation (at least in my mind) based on geology
  • said another way: for the most part, these EURs do not include other pay zones, to the best of my knowledge
  • in a Q&A, I believe it was KOG that suggested in some of its de-risked locations, they are looking at EURs of one million
  • some "Bakken" wells have reached the "average" EUR in less than three years of production; wells in the Williston Basin, including the Bakken, are expected to produce for 39 years -- not 38, not 40, but 39 years, according to at least one source -- if I can find the link, I will link it later
One million bbls at today's dollar rate and $100/bbl, it's easy to do the math --  eight (8) zeros.

Oh, I forgot, one more thing:
These are EURs per well; in the "poorer" locations in the Williston Basin, there may be only two wells/section; in the better locations in the Williston Basin, there could be upwards of ten (10) wells per spacing unit (5 wells/ section) and maybe more. There are already cases before the NDIC commission to place upwards of ten wells in one spacing unit.
I do not know if multiple laterals per well might influence these numbers. After awhile it gets hazy.

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