Wednesday, May 8, 2013

Random Update Of Whiting's Net Acreage In The Williston Basin Bakken

I'm in the process of going through Whiting's corporate presentation.

I have updated Whiting's net acreage in the Williston Basin Bakken.  The following is a "cut and paste" from the "Snapshot" data link. I don't have time to clean it up right now. The older data is probably from 2Q12 and earlier. The new net acreage data is from their current corporate presentation and is highlighted bold/red.
  • Net Bakken acreage, North Dakota only: 2Q12: 450,000 net acres; net in ND and MT: 703,668 in 2013; as of 12/31/2012, Whiting's acreage cost averages out to $521/net acre
  • According to SeekingAlpha, May 3, 2011: 603,702 net acres; 1Q13: 703,668 net acres
  • Total acquisition cost: as of May 3, 2011 -- $141 million or $243/acre
  • Sanish / Parshall Prospect: 82,533 in 2013; 83,011 net acres and 99 wells in 2010; 106 in 2011; EURs 450 - 950 (middle Bakken) and 400 mboe for upper Three Forks in the Sanish; 2Q12, only 22 stages for best well to date, the Smith 41-12H; initiated pad drilling in the Sanish; costs down $2 million/well --> $7 million/well in Williston Basin; 2Q12 -- maybe 50 more wells yet to drill in the Sanish;
  • Lewis and Clark: 134,861 in 2013; was 128,370 net acres; Lewis & Clark NW of Belfield; 1 rig;
  • Pronghorn: 128,113 in 2013; was 121,403 net acres; Belfield area; TFS Exploration Drilling; Pronghorn is between Belfield and Dickinson;  5 rigs in the Pronghorn. 2Q12: ~ $6.5 million/well;
  • Hidden Bench: 28,556 in 2013; was 30,036 net acres; middle Bakken, TFS. 2Q12 -- "one of the very best projects in the company.
  • Tarpon: 6,265 in 2013; was 6,359 net acres; Watford City area; middle Bakken, TFS; Tarpon Federal 21-4H -- record IP in the Bakken
  • Starbuck: 92,227 in 2013; 91,497 net acres; Montana, west of Williston; Middle Bakken; [prev 88K net acres]; Bakken, Three Forks, Red River
  • Missouri Breaks: 66,095 in 2013; was 62,000 net acres; Montana, west of McKenzie County; EURs - 350,000K
  • Cassandra: 13,816 in 2013; was 13,794 net acres; Ray area, east of Williston; Middle Bakken;
  • Big Island: 122,389 in 2013; 121,673 net acres; Golden Valley County, southwest corner of ND; multiple objectives; earlier presentation 120K; 50 vertical well prospects (2Q12); all successful Madison wells; EURs of 250,000K; completion costs: $3.5 million; now drilling the Red River
  • Other ND & MT: 28,813 net acres in 2013;

Whiting's Analysis Of The Bakken/Three Forks -- Corporate Presentation

Three story lines from the data below:
  • this is data that the USGS did not have at the time of their 2013 survey
  • estimates of the Bakken potential have never decreased; estimates have always increased
  • increased density wells are resulting in increased production from existing wells
I've lost track but how many ever wells you thought Whiting was going to put in their spacing units in any of their prospects, you can starting adding another 3 or 4 wells per spacing unit. In other words, if you thought that Whiting was going to put in 8 wells in a spacing unit, you may have to increase that number to 11 or 12 wells. This is not trivial.

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From Whiting's corporate presentation, from Whiting's website, May 8, 2013
Slide 10

Missouri Breaks Upper Three Forks
  • 3 wells per spacing unit
Hidden Bench Lower Bakken Silt/Higher Density Plot
  • Whiting has identified an additional reservoir between the Middle Bakken and the Three Forks
  • high oil in place
  • may significantly increase reserves in this area
  • Whiting will test this zone: Whiting calls it the "Middle Bakken Silt"
  • Whiting will test it by driling 160-acre spaced wells above and below this target zone
  • Whiting will stimulate these wells with large frac volumes
  • Whiting believes that higher density drilling could also improve recovery efficiency in the Middle Bakken reservoir (EOG has proved that higher density wells improve recovery from existing wells)
Cassandra Lower Three Forks
  • the 2nd bench (TF2) has been charged with oil from the Lower Bakken Shale
  • might support an additional 4 wells per spacing unit
Tarpon Three Lower Forks
  • TF2 has been charged with oil from the Lower Bakken Shale
  • might support an additional 3 wells per spacing unit
Pronghorn Sand Higher Density Pilot
  • sufficient OOIP in the Pronghorn/Upper Three Forks to support 6 wells/spacing unit
Sanish Higher Density Pilot
  • extensive core analysis, the Sanish Field has the highest demonstrated OOIP in the Williston Basin; the Sanish field is "owned" by Whiting
  • to date, development has focused on the Middle Bakken "B" and "C" zones
  • volumetric studies indicate that significant additional OOIP exists in the Middle Bakken "D" zone
  • Middle Bakken "D" could potentially support up to 3 additional wells in the Middle Bakken per spacing unit
From Slide 12, prospect, # of wells/spacing unit

Missouri Breaks
  • existing 4P locations: 4
  • new objectives: 3
Cassandra
  • existing 4P locations: 7
  • new objectives: 4
Sanish
  • existing 4P locations: 7
  • potential high density infills: 3
Hidden Bench
  • existing 4P locations: 7
  • potential high density infills: 8
Pronghorn
  • existing 4P locations: 3
  • potential high density infills: 3
Tarpon
  • existing 4P locations: 5
  • new objectives: 3
In other words, if you "have" a well in the Hidden Bench prospect, be prepared to "have" as many as 15 wells before this is all done. 

Slide 13

Pronghorn Prospect
  • well cost: $7.0 million
  • Whiting intends to test a higher density pilot program
  • intends to drill 6 wells per 1280-acre spacing unit, up from the initial plan of 3 wells per spacing unit
This is from the Whiting Corporate Presentation
The list differs slightly from the linked story below. Among other differences, the original list had CLR #1 and WLL #2.  There may be data out that still has CLR #1. The list will vary slightly from other sources, depending on how figures are derived.

Top ten producers in the Bakken, North Dakota, 2012. See story here.
Barrels of oil per day
List updated from Whiting Corporate Presentation 4Q12 
  • 1. Whiting Oil and Gas Corporation, 66,156
  • 2. Continental Resources, 65,141
  • 3. Hess Corporation, 64,657
  • 4. Brigham Oil & Gas, 50,325
  • 5. EOG, 46,091
  • 6. XTO Energy Inc. 33,148
  • 7. Marathon Oil Company, 31,194
  • 8. Petro-Hunt, L.L.C., 25,743
  • 9. Slawson, 21,058
  • 10. KOG, 20,423
  • 11. Oasis, 20,013
  • 12. Burlington Resources, 19,798
  • 13. QEP, 17,521
  • 14. WPX, 17,043
  • 15. OXY USA, 15,187
  • 16. SM Energy, 12,665
  • 17. Zavanna, 10,991
  • 18. Enerplus, 10,568
  • 19. Hunt, 9,955
  • 20. Newfield, 9,437

Don't Fight The Fed: Some Interesting Graphs From The Minneapolis Fed

Sent to me by a reader, and also linked at Carpe Diem, these are some interesting graphs.

Homeland Security And The Immigration Bill

The stories continue to come out about Homeland Security buying ever increasing amounts of ammunition.

I originally posted this on March 25, 2013, as part of another Bakken-related post.

What was not mentioned in the original post below, or at least not given enough emphasis, was how this relates to the immigration bill now winding its way through Congress.

It is very likely that it is a better bill than some are suggesting. Amnesty will not occur overnight; there will be a long path.

However, the "word on the street" from San Antonio and El Paso south into Mexico will be that Mexicans are now guaranteed citizenship in the US. Some have suggested that the border will be literally overrun. That may or may not happen, but the former governor of Arizona knows first hand what that could mean.

I think the dots are starting to connect: when the immigration bill was being fashioned early in the first term, there were brainstorming sessions looking at the risks involved. I am convinced that at least one bullet (no pun intended) on the PowerPoint presentations was exactly that: when the bill is passed the word on the street will result in an open invitation to all those living south of the border to move quickly to take advantage of the new bill. It's very possible, the new bill will even state that to begin the legal path to citizenship will require that one had been in the country in the year in which the bill passed. That would result in a huge influx, literally overnight.

It is not a stretch that the ammunition and armored vehicles being bought by Homeland Security are connected with the immigration bill. It would be interesting to ask Ms Napolitano that question under oath. She would deny it, of course, but at least her answer would be on the record.

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Originally Posted March 25, 2013 


Arizona, Napolitano, Ammo, Assault Vehicles
It's All Starting To Make Sense

On a completely different note, there have been several articles of the Department of Homeland Security buying excessive numbers of rounds of ammunition. It is being reported that DHS is not acknowledging the purchases, and is stonewalling Congress when asked about the purchases. I have posted the news items, noting them, but not really getting any feel for the story: whether there might be a reason or simply the government buying lots of ammunition for no particular reason.

Now, these photos, videos, and story from Infowars.com:
Footage of hundreds of armored trucks, similar to ones reportedly purchased recently by the Department Of Homeland Security has appeared online, raising more questions over their intended use.
The video was uploaded to YouTube last week by a user who stated that it was shot in the middle of the desert between Hackberry and Peach Springs, Arizona.
It shows hundreds of military style trucks loaded on to a train, presumably in the process of being delivered domestically for law enforcement or military purposes.
I think the dots are starting to connect.
  • The director of Homeland Security is Janet Napolitano. She was the governor of Arizona from 2003 to 2009.
  • The US federal bureaucracy moves very, very slowly. The decision to buy large amounts of ammunition and large number of assault vehicles for domestic use would have taken a fair amount of time from considering the issue to executing the plan.
  • I don't know if folks remember what the big story in Arizona was between 2003 and 2009 that would relate to the subject at hand.
But here's a hint:
  • This article was posted in 2009. I personally don't care for this type of "scare" article. I did not read the entire article, and it is linked here solely for demonstration, to help folks connect the dots.
  • In the 2008 time period and into 2009, the US economy experienced a severe recession; the Mexican economy did not implode; and, there was no mass migration of Mexicans across the border. But I do recall the hysteria was pretty rampant, between 2003 and 2009, about the Mexican economy collapsing, and hordes of Mexicans streaming across the border. 
It wasn't until I saw the videos of the assault vehicles for domestic use that the dots started to connect.

The risk seems to have completely gone away; perhaps it has, perhaps it hasn't. But the bureaucracy moves slowly, and once the plan -- to buy weapons, ammunition, and assault vehicles -- was hatched some years ago, it would have taken a few years to execute.

It all fits very nicely. It doesn't bother me one way or the other. I don't think the arming of Immigration and Customs Enforcement is all that big a deal. I truly doubt arming the ICE is for the purpose of preventing armed revolt in the street by American citizens upset about losing their social security or having to pay for ObamaCare. The dots connect, and if arming the ICE is for the purpose suggested, it sounds more than appropriate. The whole plan seems a bit crazy, but I'm sure the government has done a lot crazier things over the years. But, wow, it sure makes sense. 

Janet Napolitano was governor of Arizona in 2003 - 2009, ground zero (time and place) for impending hordes of Mexicans flooding across the border. She probably lost sleep thinking about the very real possibility. If so, that fear never left her. Once in a job where she could do something about it, she acted with laser-like focus.