A Shout-Out To Another Blogger -- August 11, 2017; More Bad News For OPEC; Sanctions? What Sanctions?

A shout-out to OutrunChange -- recently linked one of my posts. Thank you. Have a great weekend.

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The Market And Energy Page, Part 2, T+203

Wow! Completely unexpected: Reuters is reporting that a "flood" of gasoline is heading to the US Northeast as driving season ends; gasoline coming from Europe and the US Gulf Coast. 

A string of inventory draws in the United States and a revival in gasoline demand alleviated a longstanding glut in the New York gasoline hub, drawing interest from shippers in Europe at a time when buying historically eases at the end of August.

Expectation for increased flows pushed gasoline futures and margins to a two-week low after they surged last week to a more than three-month high.

European exports to North America of gasoline and naphtha, which is used for blending into gasoline, will jump in the coming weeks to the highest in months.

Total East Coast imports are set to reach nearly 850,000 barrels per day (bpd) by the end of August, doubling from a month earlier, according to traders and shipping data.

See related post from yesterday: the nation's biggest fuel pipeline is back in business -- but still not big enough. Making America great again. Who would have ever guessed. I thought Tesla had killed the internal combustion engine.

Speaking of Tesla: lack of "ethical cobalt" undermines Tesla debt issue. -- Financial Times. Tesla and "colonial slaves?"

Russian sanctions? Apparently not when a country needs Russian natural gas. Russian gas producer Gazprom said it used the Opal pipeline to full capacity on Wednesday for the first time since a German court lifted a restriction on the company's access last month.

OPEC: more challenges -- Rigzone is reporting that the IEA has now cut its estimates for the amount of crude oil needed from OPEC in 2017 and 2018. No link yet; just being posted on Twitter. 

Another wow! Has anyone noticed that 10-year Treasuries are down to 2.196% -- at least that's what I'm seeing on the CNBC crawler. And there's an "up" arrow suggesting it was even worse, earlier. Wow. I know nothing about Treasuries but Rick Santelli feels strongly that going through the 3% floor was not trivial. I would assume that banks are going to be making a ton of money when they can borrow cheap money and loan it out at higher rates. I don't know; just idle chatter. 

NDIC Hearing Dockets, August, 2017 -- Highlights

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Disclaimer 

 

Disclaimer: as usual this is done very quickly and using shorthand for my benefit. There will be factual and typographical errors on this page. Do not quote me on any of this. It's for my personal use to help me better understand the Bakken. Do not read it. If you do happen to read it, do not make any investment, financial, job, relationship, or travel plans based on anything you read here or think you may have read here. If this stuff is important to you, and I doubt that it is, but if it is, go to the source.

Full Agenda

The usual disclaimer holds. 

Wednesday, August 23, 2017

26014, NDIC to consider confiscation of assets at Savelkou 7-21, #24147, operated by Strike Oil, Renville County
26015, NDIC to consider confiscation of assets at Artz 22-42, #17606, operated by Strike Oil, Bottineau County
26016, NDIC to consider confiscation of assets at Artz 15-13, #17632, operated by Strike Oil, Bottineau County
26017, NDIC to consider confiscation of assets at North Dakota State 36-12, , #21242, operated by Strike Oil, Bottineau County
26018, Remuda Energy Development LLC, for an enhanced hydrocarbon recovery project in the Little Missouri-Pierre Unit, through injection of water or other fluids; Bowman County;
26019, Oasis, BAnks-Bakken, setback rules, McKenzie County
26020, Oasis, Banks and/or Elidah-Bakken, establish an overlapping 5120-acre unit, 4 wells, McKenzie
26021, Petro Harvester, Short Creek-Madison pool, four sections, 26/27/34/35-164-93, establish four standup 400-acre units; 2 horizontal wells in each; Burke County
26022, Petro Harvester, Woburn-Madison pool, establish two 1280-acre units, one hz well on each
26023, MRO, Eagle Nest-Bakken; establish a 1920-acre unit; 11 wells; Dunn County
26024, Kraken Oil, commingling
26025, MRO, commingling
26026, Petro Harvester, SWD, Short Creek Field, Burke County

Thursday, August 24. 2017

Comment: Liberty Resources appears to have the most cases on Thursday's dockets, by a long, long shot.

26027, NDIC; establish/alter spacing units in Phelps Bay-Bakken, 13-153-95; and Elm Tree-Bakken, 18-153-94, McKenzie
26028, Ballard and Berenergy, Chatfield-Madison pool, redefine field limits and rules, Bottineau County
26029, XTO, St Jacobs-Bakken redefine field limits and rules, Billings County
26030, WPX, Wolf Bay-Bakken, establish an overlapping 2560-acre unit; 1 well; Dunn County
26031, WPX, Reunion Bay and/or Van Hook-Bakken; establish an overlapping 2560-acre unit; 1 well, Mountrail
26032, WPX, Spotted Horn-Bakken, establish an overlapping 2560-are unit; 1 well, McKenzie County
26033, Liberty Resources, North Tioga-Bakken, establish an overlapping 1280-acre unit; 1 well; Burke County
26034, Liberty Resources, Gros Ventre-Bakken, establish a 1920-acre unit, 8 wells, Burke County
26035, Liberty Resources, McGregor-Bakken; authority to use numerous wells located in 8/17-158-95 as injection wells for an enhanced oil recovery pilot operation; Williams County
26036, PetroShale, Mandaree-Bakken; establish an overlapping 640-acre unit; 3 wells, Dunn County
26037, PetroShale, Antelope-Sanish, establish two overlapping 2560-acre units; 1 well each; McKenzie
26038, CLR, exception to rules, Miles 8-6H1 (#33220), McKenzie County
26039, CLR, exception to rules, State Weydahl 11-36H (#32819), Dunn County
26040, Hydroil Solutions; treating plant, McKenzie County
26041, Waste Management, SWD, McKenzie County
26042, Waste Management, SWD, McKenzie County
26043, Nine Point Energy (formerly Triangle Petroleum), pooling
26044, Crescent Point Energy, pooling
26045, Crescent Point Energy, pooling
26046, Crescent Point Energy, pooling
26047, Liberty Resources, pooling
26048, Liberty Resources, pooling
26049, Liberty Resources, Gros Ventre-Bakken, on an existing 1920-acre unit, 8 wells; Burke County
26050, Liberty Resources, Enget Lake-Bakken, on an existing 1280-acre unit; 28/33-158-93, 8 wells; Mountrail County
26051, Liberty Resources, re-work Gohrick 158-95-17-8-4MBH (#28439); Williams County
26052, Liberty Resources, re-work Gohrick 158-95-17-8-5TFH (#28440); Williams County 
26053, Liberty Resources, McGregor-Bakken, re-work, for temporary injection of fluids, 8/17-158-95, Williams County
26054, Liberty Resources, McGregor-Bakken, re-work, for temporary injection of fluids, 8/17-158-95, Williams County
26055, Liberty Resources, McGregor-Bakken, re-work, for temporary injection of fluids, 8/17-158-95, Williams County
26056,, Liberty Resources, McGregor-Bakken, re-work, for temporary injection of fluids, 8/17-158-95, Williams County
26057, Liberty Resources, McGregor-Bakken, re-work, for temporary injection of fluids, 8/17-158-95, Williams County
26058, WPX, Wolf Bay-Bakken, on an existing 1280-acre unit, 28/33-147-92, 10 wells; Dunn County
26059, CLR, commingling
26060, EOG, SWD, Mountrail County

A continued case: 25660.

This is a continued case. I normally don't report continued cases (since they have been posted earlier) but this one seems huge, and one I had missed:

25660, QEP seeks an order suspending and revoking thirteen permits issued to EOG for several Bear Den wells in the Spotted Horn-Bakken pool, sections 30/31-150-94, specifically file numbers: 33303, 33301, 33300, 33306, 33310, 33309, 33308, 33302, 33307, 33299, 33298, 33304, and 33305.

OPEC Production Hits New 2017 High In July -- IEA -- August 11, 2017

Active rigs:

$48.43↓	8/11/2017	08/11/2016	08/11/2015	08/11/2014	08/11/2013
Active Rigs	57	33	70	194	184

RBN Energy: a new, more competitive era for LNG shipping.

I'm shocked! Shocked! From The Wall Street Journal -- global oil supply grows on higher OPEC output despite deal. Cartel's crude production hit new 2017 high in July -- IEA.

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The Market And Energy Page, T+203

Dividends! six energy stocks set to raise dividends as oil prices stabilize -- the story is a bit weak on specifics, but mentions these companies, some of them simply in passing. Take this article with a grain of salt. The six companies: XOM, COP, Marathon (MPC), ONEOK, WMB, and KMI.

Enerplus: not surprising, considering results in the Bakken. Enerplus posts a 2Q17 profit after reporting a loss a year earlier. Adjusted, EPS, 24 cents per share. 

More restaurant closings: from Syracuse.com, data points --

• parent company, DineEquity: IHOP and Applebee's
• will close 160 locations 
• originally only 40 - 60 Applebee's locations expected to close; now 105 - 135 locations 
• IHOP: 20 - 25, up from the original 18 expected
• in another story, it was reported that although both will close locations, they will open some new locations, also

JCP: losses mount; misses estimates; stock craters.

AAPL: shares took big hit yesterday when the Dow pulled back 250 points; today it's up a percent or two.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here.

Tea leaves: scrolling through energy news this morning, the tea leaves suggest --

• traders think the worst is over for oil
• oil companies can adjust to any oil price, as long as it remains stable; WTI seems to be stabilizing; seems to have a new floor -- $45, and the trend is up
• global storage inventories dropping albeit very, very slowly, but on a reasonable track
• "fast and fury" already "old news" -- except on CNN and MSNBC (neither of which are followed by investors)
• being ignored: the end of the US driving season is upon us

Backwardation: the current buzzword on the street. See Reuters article via Rigzone. 

The Nation's Biggest Fuel Pipeline Is Back In Business -- August 10, 2017

From Bloomberg via Rigzone. Colonial Pipeline is back to business as usual -- with more demand to move fuels to the East Coast from Houston than it has space for.

After running below capacity about 45 days starting in July, the largest gasoline pipeline in the U.S. has restarted its practice of rationing space. The company froze shippers’ ability to nominate more fuels this month to maintain the line’s five-day cycle shipping frequency.

To be a big player in the U.S. gasoline market, it’s essential to have a gateway to the high-demand center surrounding New York City. Some traders supply that hub with foreign imports, but 1.3 million barrels a day move north on the Colonial Pipeline from the refining hub near Houston.

Last week the arbitrage, or selling opportunity for European gasoline exports to New York, fell to the lowest level since January 2016. Upcoming imports from Europe will also be stifled as the region’s largest refinery shut unexpectedly. Royal Dutch Shell Plc will attempt to restart one of two crude units at the Pernis refinery Friday.

“Inventories of gasoline have been drawing down across the East Coast and now it makes sense to take more barrels through Colonial’s pipeline,” said one analyst.

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The Katie Ledecky Page

Data points from NBC Sports and FINA:

• 20 years old; Stanford sophomore
• world championships, Budapest, late July, 2017
• 1500-meter freestyle: wins by a whopping 19 seconds; already owned the world record and has the seven fastest times in history for this event
• 400-meter freestyle: Katie Ledecky, #1
• 800-meter freestyle: Katie Ledecky, #1
• 4 x 100-meter freestyle with Katie Ledecky, #1
• 4 x 200-meter freestyle with Katie Ledecky, #1
• five gold medals 

From The New York Times: Bidding to become only the second female swimmer to win six golds at a single world championships, Ledecky settled for silver in the 200-meter freestyle Wednesday evening when Federica Pellegrini of Italy claimed a stunning victory on the final lap.

 Missy Franklin has the 6-gold medal record.

CLR's Kukla Wells Updated -- August 10, 2017

A reader mentioned some good results regarding CLR's Kukla wells. I've updated their production here. Interestingly, they are just south of the nice CLR Candee wells.