Chips -- Update, Commentary -- AMD To Build A Supercomputer? July 3, 2024

Locator: 48040TECH.

With regard to tech, chips, and investing, I consider this a big deal (for me). Note the usual disclaimer -- everywhere on the blog and also at the bottom of this page.

In the big scheme of things, I see:

• NVDA: GPUs
• AMD: CPUs
• MU: memory
• NPUs: multiple, proprietary
• AAPL: SoC

Tabs at the top of the page:

• Chips.
• Tech.

The big source: wiki.

• transistor county;
• system on a chip;

System on a chip: Apple and Broadcom graphics at wiki --

A quick perusal of all these sites, plus:

• the blog, January 20, 2023;
• Chip War, Chris Miller, c. 2022;
• around 2022, I pivoted from energy to tech and developed an investing map based on that book

Putting that altogether ....

.... so, when I saw this, I was quite pleasantly surprised.

AMD: to build a supercomputer, 30x larger than the world's largest operational supercomputer? Link here. Press release from AMD:

Be sure to read the comments at the link. Particularly this one: https://x.com/WatchThisIWC/status/1808252744056426652. 

So, it that just idle chatter coming out of nowhere? It sure seems "pie in the sky," but then this credible source, tom'sHARDWARE:

Possibilities:

• US public: only intel agencies, and AMD wouldn't be discussing this if that's where the offer existed
• US private: there are only a few companies that could pull this off; think of the trillion-dollar market cap club: Amazon, possibly; Apple, no; MSFT, no; Musk (TSLA), possibly; NVDA, obviously not.
• sovereign nations:
• as noted above, US, no
• Saudi Arabia: wouldn't surprise me
• Japan: why?

The timing is incredibly interesting. An AMD press release following an international conference: see above.

The Frontier computer at wiki.

Then to come full circle:

Putting that altogether ....

.... so, when I saw this, I was quite pleasantly surprised. As an investor, this is almost actionable intel:

• unlike global warming, climate change, the tech revolution is not controversial;
• the tech revolution is very, very real
• huge FOMO among sovereign countries, and large market-cap publicly-traded companies
• unlike the dot.com bust several decades ago, "real" hardware -- not just webpages and dreams -- are being sold
• the tech revolution is being "run" by huge, well-known, well-managed tech companies, not be start-ups that we saw during the dot.com bust
• unlike the dot.com period when start-ups depended on huge amounts of hedge-fund support, the companies involved in the tech revolution have huge cash reserves; they have huge cash reserves and/or equity valuation that is not considered wildly out of line
• this revolution is occurring despite high interest rates; imagine what happens when the Fed makes that first cut;
  
• tech companies are growing into their evaluations
• Exhibit A:
• Nvidia: a p/e of 73
• AAPL: below it's "usual" p/e
• AVGO: 73; 10-1 split pending
• QCOM: 27
• INTC: 33
  

While writing the above:

• MSFT hits a new all-time high;
• AAPL turns positive again; if closes in the green, will set a new record; hits a new all-time high;
• NVDA snaps several-day losing stretch and is now (nicely) green today;
• MU up nicely today.

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Disclaimer Briefly Reminder

• I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market, 
• I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
• See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. 
• Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them.
• Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market, 
• I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple.