Weekly EIA Petroleum Report, Inflation Watch -- We're On Pool Time -- January 31, 2024

Locator: 46693B.

Just 'cause everyone has an opinion, mine, before the announcement:

• no change in Fed rate today
• higher for longer
• Fed doesn't cut unless there's economic distress
• there's no economic distress
  
• language will suggest next cut won't be in March; June at the earliest, and then up against the election;

After the announcement, unchanged, remains at 5.25 -- 5.50%:

• markets drop significantly more -- LOL -- what were analysts thinking
• great news for investors; no need to rush into buying anything; stick with your long-term investment plan; the market is not going anywhere for awhile
• consumer spending accounts for two-thirds of the GDP and the "consumer" remains strong
  
• only "thing" the Fed rate affects: housing -- buying and renting
• cut Fed rate significantly, and I can guarantee you our local grocery stores are not going to lower prices based on Fed rate -- the drop in "basis points" will be inconsequential for grocers 
• exhibit A: least expensive rotisserie chicken than I've seen in a long time.
  

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Crazy Traders / Analysts

The Fed "adjusts" rates, generally, one quarter [twenty-five basis points] every two or three months once the Fed starts moving one direction of the other.  

Q: Why does the Fed need to cut rates?
A: so if the Fed cuts the rate from 5.5% to 5.25%, that will prevent a recession?

Crickets.

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Other Stuff

Inflation watch: people that know, know. In case you missed it. It's $8.49 at Albertson's / Tom Thumb in same neighborhood.

Weekly EIA petroleum report:

• US crude oil in storage: 5% below five-year average.
  
• US crude oil imports: 6% less than last year.
  
• refiners: 82.9%. I can't recall when it's been this low this long.
  
• distillate in storage: 5% below five-year average.
  
• jet fuel supplied: up 1.7% compared with last year.
  
• gasoline demand: link here.
  

I used no gasoline today. I made two grocery trips -- on bike. One to Walmart and one to Dollar Tree.

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We're On Pool Time