What Happened To That Recession That Never Came? December 29, 2023

Locator: 46417ARCHIVES. 

Personal investing: bought WMT and CAT. Last trades of the year. Sold entire WBA position.

Market: last trading day quiet, subdued, no new records.

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For The Archives

Josh on CNBC, "Half Time Report" -- again, he has it exactly right this morning.

Link here.

At the linked article, the comments are most important. One would think the Fed now has a quiver full of arrows to take on the next challenge. All things being equal, it all comes down to the Fed. But all things are not equal: presidential election year; Israel-Hamas; Ukraine-Russia; stimulus money winding its way through the economy. 

For the market, for WOOPs which grandchildren who are paying attention, great opportunity to move a lot of idle cash into 529s.

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Energy

CVX: one of Barron's top ten for 2024.

Oil: best-performing asset in 2024 -- BofA.  Hope springs eternal.

Oil: agree completely. And this isn't going to change any time soon. And for Gen Zers and millennials whose only car is an EV, their EVs are small (e.g., Chevy Bolt), used for local trips and have minimal impact on gasoline demand.

Coal: US coal production rose 7.5% year/year. I find that amazing. 7.5% is not trivial. I bet if you asked most millennials, they would get this one wrong. Assuming millennials are even interested. And I doubt that they are.

California, E-trucks, and the ports: link here. Something tells me it's not as rosy as Mr Diaz is making it sound. It will be interesting to see if his company is still around in 2026. And the bigger picture: look how much it will take to build out the infrastructure to accomplish what California and the ports have mandated. And note that every one of the EV trucks he bought-- Nikolas -- were recalled with the promise that Diaz would get them back "sometime" in 2024. If Nikola survives financially. The bigger question: why didn't he go with Daimler EV trucks? Nikola is in the middle of moving battery operations from California to Arizona.