Eight Wells Coming Off Confidential List -- July 13, 2020

Updates

Later, 10:24 a.m. CDT: AAPL 18 cents short of $400. TSLA blows through 1750.  IMUX, up 5%. 

Later, 10:05 a.m. CDT: story yet to be reported -- huge strain on NYC policemen's pension fund. The guys with the green visors anticipate "x" number of retirements each year. Two story lines:

• increased number of retirements per year for the next five years; and, 
• by retiring early, pension funds will be paying out benefits for a much longer period of time

Later, 9:18 a.m. CDT: holy mackerel -- AAPL up $13/share today; trending toward $400/share.

• Others:
• IMUX: up 2%; trading at $12.51; 
• TSLA: blows through $1700. Is "short squeeze" hypenhated?

Original Post

Focus on fracking posted overnight. Link here. Low prices appear to be driving drillers to abandon horizontal drilling for cheaper vertical wells. If accurate, probably a Texas phenomenon; not seeing it in the Bakken. With only a dozen active rigs in the Bakken fairly easy to keep track of drilling activity. See this note from last Friday.

TSLA: to blow through $1600 today. Short squeeze next story for this stock. See this post.

OPEC basket: pretty much unchanged, at $43.46. Link here. Remains well below $53 which is needed to clear current accounts and way below $82 on which Saudi budget is based.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

AAPL: at the most recent Apple presentation -- last month? -- one presenter mentioned that Apple Pencil users --once they pick it up, never want to set it down -- that's absolutely correct. I can no longer use my iPad without the Apple Pencil. It's really quite an interesting phenomenon.

IMUX: holy mackerel! In pre-market trading, up 16%. Up almost $2.00/share. Could open above $14.

Repeating: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

GOYA: the Goya boycott has failed. Spectacularly. There's a bigger story here that's not being reported.  

***********************************

Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

$40.212	7/13/2020	07/13/2019	07/13/2018	07/13/2017	07/13/2016
Active Rigs	11	56	67	59	30

Eight wells coming off confidential list --  

Monday, July 13, 2020: 43 for the month; 43 for the quarter, 489 for the year:

• None.

Sunday, July 12, 2020: 43 for the month; 43 for the quarter, 489 for the year:

• 37260, drl/IA, BR, CCU Pacific Express 32-19TFH-R, Corral Creek, t--; cum --; see this note;
  
• 36507, SI/A, Whiting, Rauser 11-28-1H, Pembroke, t--; cum 117K in 5 months; a 34K month;
• 36216, drl/NC, XTO, Allie 31X-24A, Capa, no production data,

Saturday, July 11, 2020: 40 for the month; 40 for the quarter, 486 for the year:

• 36388, SI/A, Whiting, Ogden 11-3HU, Alger, t--; cum 70K in 3 months; a 26K month;
• 36217, drl/NC, XTO, Allie 31X-24EXH, Capa, no production data, 
• 35926, drl/A, CLR, Jamestown Federal 13-17H, Banks, t--; cum 76K in 3 months; a 27K month; see this note;
• 31522, SI/A, CLR, Steele Federal 8-24H1, Banks, t--; cum 136K in 4.5 months; a 38K month;
• 29470, drl/NC, Hess, TI-Beauty Valley-158-95-1423H-2, Tioga, no production data,

RBN Energy: Is the crude market headed for an ugly replay of this spring?

The crude oil market may be approaching another rough patch, with the trajectory of the COVID pandemic and OPEC+ again poised to inflict a double whammy on U.S. producers. For the past couple of months, refinery demand for crude has been rebounding as the U.S. has made tentative steps toward reopening. Over the same period, domestic production of oil declined and then flattened out, and now appears to be headed for a midsummer uptick as more shut-in wells are brought back online. But there’s potential trouble just ahead. The months-long imbalance between crude supply and demand boosted U.S. oil inventories in commercial storage to record-high levels over the past few weeks, with even more oil flowing into rented space in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) salt caverns. Worse yet for producers, a resurgence of the coronavirus may put some parts of the U.S. back into semi-lockdown, and if that happens, refinery utilization could take a second tumble. That could push more crude into storage or onto supertankers for export, even as OPEC+ is talking about relaxing their production cuts. Today, we examine the trends that could be problematic for U.S. oil producers and refiners in the second half of 2020 and beyond.

Like many a 25-year-old guy or gal eager to head out with friends for tacos and beers, U.S. producers and refiners would like nothing more than for life to get back to normal — the way things were just a few months ago. Producers long for $55/bbl WTI and easy pipeline access to key markets; refiners, for 90% refinery utilization rates and respectable refining margins. However, the reality is that COVID is hanging around and spreading in many parts of the U.S. and there’s a real possibility that the quick return to normal that all of us have been hoping for may not come to pass. It may take time, and crude-focused producers and refiners may be in for another round of angst.