Morning Note -- October 8, 2018

Price of gasoline, unleaded:

• Shell, Grapevine, TX: $2.76
• Childress, TX: $2.68
• Colorado Springs, CO: $3.28
• I've seen it as low as $2.55 in west Texas west of Childress; quite remote area

The car:

• my 2011 Honda Civic still gets 41 mpg on open road
• the Jeep Compass I'm driving gets about 32 mpg on the open road according to Enterprise/website; I'm getting significantly less but I'm not driving 55 mpg, downhill, with a tailwind, the usual testing conditions by the OEM
• the Mazda alternative I was offered actually got 31 mpg on the open road, according to Enterprise
• having said that, the Jeep Compass is a very nice drive, but really poor side and rear view visibility compared to my Honda; Jeep Compass has significant delay in moving from a standing stop (at an intersection, etc); the GUI for radio, map, etc., not particularly noteworthy; 
• Honda Civic, Nissan Rogue, Jeep Compass -- in the running for a new car -- depends what we need at the time: crossover SUV or small sedan; I love the Honda Civic

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Jobs: Holy Mackerel!
After Two Lost Decades: 3.7% Unemployment

I don't recall ever seeing an unemployment rate this low. Apparently 49 years ago. That was the year I graduated from high school, 1969, and, oh, by the way, the best year ever for music. 

Link for graphic below.

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Las Vegas Odds

Link here.  Trending toward a "confirmation."

My bet:

• procedural vote to proceed: 99% chance it passes Friday (later today)
• US Senate vote results not known until after 4:00 p.m. EDT, tomorrow, Saturday, 50%
• US Senate confirms Kavanaugh without Pence tie-breaker: 25%
• US Senate confirms Kavanaugh with/without Pence: less than 10%

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Back to the Bakken

One well coming off confidential list today -- Friday, October 5, 2018: 

• 29978, 1,209, Petro-Hunt, Van Hise Trust 153-95-28C-21-3H, Charlson, t8/18; cum --

Active rigs:

	10/5/2018	10/05/2017	10/05/2016	10/05/2015	10/05/2014
Active Rigs	63	59	32	67	190

RBN Energy: part 3 -- E&P's 2Q18 profit growth squelched b stagnant realizations.

The U.S. exploration and production sector has reaped many benefits from its transformation to large-scale, manufacturing-style exploitation of premier resource plays, generating record oil and gas production while slashing production and reserve replacement costs by 50%. While increased efficiency and rising output have moved the industry solidly into the black after three years of losses, profit growth stalled in the second quarter 2018 despite a $5/bbl increase in oil prices to about $68/bbl. The cause is largely beyond the control of the producers: constraints on getting the increased output to markets. In certain producing regions, most notably the Permian Basin, production growth has far outpaced expansions to the infrastructure required to process and transport it. Today, we explain why these constraints are critical to assessing the outlook for industry profitability and cash flow over at least the next two to four quarters.