Updates
October 12, 2012: FT - Turkey steps up military presence along Syrian border
Turkey has increased its military presence along its 900km border with Syria, scrambling jets and dispatching scores of tanks in the continuing face-off between Ankara and Damascus.
Two fighter aircraft flew along a stretch of the border after a Syrian helicopter bombed the nearby Syrian village of Azmarin, while Turkish media reported that up to 250 tanks were in the border area.October 12, 2012: WSJ, page A13, editorial -- Turkey's Dangerous Assad Dilemma;
The Sunni-Schiite schism stretches from Iran and Iraq to Syria and Hezbollah's reign in Beirut, versus a Sunni bloc from North Africa to the eastern Mediterranean, clustered around Turkey, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia.
Syria is the prize, and the epicenter, of this contest. Hard as Mr Erdogan (Turkey's prime minister) would try to keep the struggle for Syria within tolerable bounds, the cruelty of the civil war there would overwhelm his policy. He had pledged himself to the removal of Assad, but the dictator had not obliged. Nor had Washington -- particularly President Obama, obsessed with self-preservation -- been the ally Mr Erdogan had hoped for.October 11, 2012: WSJ, page A10 concurs -- Syrian conflict grows on two fronts -- Turkey forces Damascus-bound plane to land; American sends troops to Jordan
October 10, 2012: Nobel peace prize winner sends US troops to Jordan.
The revelation of U.S. military personnel so close to the 19-month-old Syrian conflict suggests an escalation in the U.S. military involvement in the conflict, even as Washington pushes back on any suggestion of a direct intervention in Syria.October 9, 2012: pipelines from Iran and Iraq to Turkey are blowing up. Mysteriously.
October 8, 2012: Israel launches airstrike over Gaza after rockets from Gaza hit Israel; supposedly hits a mosque; Israel says Iran 2 - 4 months from "path to nuclear weapon";
October 8, 2012: Turkey shells Syria for sixth day. Turkey president says worse case scenario playing out in Syria; Turkey will do what it takes to protect itself.
October 6, 2012: In the original post, I mention the 3:00 a.m. phone call from Libya that "we" all slept through. The rank-and-file in the intel community is starting to rally behind their immediate leadership: the White House simply did not respond to the Libyan threat -- either a mistake or on purpose.
The Drudge Report says the White House is starting to point fingers; maybe/maybe not, but the administration is now trying to get its story straight. Maybe this is the story that should air two days before the election rather than the documentary on the Bin Laden mission. For which Michelle and Barack were given credit, not the intelligence community.
It will be interesting where this story ends: an opportunity for a Pulitzer Prize if any reporter is interested. It should not be too difficult to find off-the-record, anonymous sources from the intel community. Look for some "leaked" e-mails.
Original Post
A regular talking head says Iran is ready to implode; sanctions taking a toll. He says governments topple due to inflation, riots in the streets. He failed to mention that before a government fails, they often do very rash things.
Iran leadership has said Israel's days are numbered. The US official position on that (if the president represents official position): Iran's posturing is just "noise."
Then, in the last hour or so, we get news that Turkey has authorized military action INSIDE Syria. Maybe it's just me, but there's something scary about a NATO country authorizing military action inside a non-NATO country. Just saying.
With all the internal problems Syria has at the moment, it's hard to believe that Turkish military action could be the catalyst for regime change. It's hard for me to believe that Russia will idly stand by and let that happen.
In the grand scheme of things, I do believe Syria has a closer relationship with Russia than with the United States. In the grand scheme of things, I do believe Turkey has a closer relationship with the United States than with Russia.
This will be interesting to follow.
Of course, we all know what happened in Libya when the 3:00 a.m. call came in and we were sleeping. I think about that when I connect the stories above and haven't heard anything from Saudi Arabia. I doubt the princes are unaware of what's happening in their neighborhood.
And Egypt isn't exactly quiet. Wow, Israel has to be watching events in Syria very, very closely. And Egypt on its west. And Iran. This is not good.
This is simply idle chatter, just thinking what it must be like to be living in the Mideast these days. It has to be very, very interesting.
