Irrationally exuberant?

From Bloomberg, January 22, 2010:

"[North Dakota oil] output may reach 300,000 to 400,000 barrels a day by mid- 2011 and stay at that level for 10 to 15 years, said Lynn Helms, director of the North Dakota Mineral Resources Department. The state’s previous estimate was 220,000 to 280,000."

It should be noted that the governor of North Dakota says the state's current production nearly matches the state's capacity to transport 360,000 barrels of oil per day, so this prediction that we may reach 300,000 to 400,000 barrels a day eighteen months from now is not all that earth-shattering. What is interesting is that the director feels that the output could stay at that level for 10 to 15 years.

With regard to capacity (this is getting to be an old story): at the end of 2009, the state's capacity was 250,000 bopd. With the upgrade of the Enbridge pipelines and introduction of EOG's railroad tanker (Stanley, ND), 110,000 bopd in capacity was added, making a total of 360,000 bopd at the beginning of 2010.

Going forward there will be two opposing forces affecting daily production: a) better technology; b) more regulation (regarding fracturing, cap and trade, water).