Notes From All Over -- Part 2 -- September 23, 2021

TGT: Target announces it will not hire additional seasonal workers for the holidays. If this is accurate, as reported, this is huge. Let's count the ways:

• first and foremost, the CFO has run the numbers and determined the additional cost just not worth it
• shortage of retail workers --> higher hourly wages for those seasonal workers
  
• training dollars
• Target may have surveyed their workers and discovered current workers would like the extra pay for themselves that might include overtime benefits
• apparently we're only talking about twenty extra hours per employee over the entire season (but that was not made clear)
  
• current workers much more efficient than seasonal workers, and perhaps much more loyal staff
• staff shoplifting probably less among loyal employees
• this was not an overnight decision; Target has probably been working overtime (no pun intended) to improve efficiency this past year;
  
• Target may put more emphasis on e-commerce
• twenty-four percent of the twenty-four hours in a day (i.e., about six hours/day) probably accounts for eighty percent of revenue; if Target can spread that out over more hours, sales per employee will go up;
• other comments:
• we'll probably hear some griping (and reporting on that griping) on CNBC during the holidays, but if Target can maintain sales numbers with fewer seasonal employees, shareholders will love it

Covid-19:

• Sophia, a second grader, is absolutely thrilled with being back at school
• elementary students bring home stories about everything that is being discussed at schools. Sophia has not once mentioned (and I never ask):
• anything about Covid at school;
• anything about masking (they wear masks at school); it's become the new norm;
  
• about the teachers that are not in school because they were in contact with someone with Covid and are now quarantined at home;
• about their friends not in school because they are home in quarantine (the school reports the cases each day, and the school is averaging about one student each day being identified for being Covid-positive0;

Market: I'm still looking for that 10% to 20% pullback in the market; now we have this news and/or observations from today:

• maybe, probably, possibly, the Fed will barely start tapering by the very end of the year;
• talking heads suggest Jay Powell was "hawkish" yesterday; yet there was no indication we would see a quarter percent increase in the fed rate before December, 2022 -- that's more than a year from now -- in my mind that's hardly hawkish.
  
• tapering, even if it begins in December, 2021, it won't be complete until July, 2022;
• tapering is not selling; tapering is simply buying less;
• tapering is not a rate hike
  
• infrastructure bill will move along; those US senators holding out are simply bargaining for better deals for their states;
  
• jobs report today moves the Fed calendar to the right (it will be longer before tapering begins, rise in interest rates)
• Delta surge appears to be coming to an end
• the "China-contangion" never occurred
• Dow jumps 500 points in one day (today)
• Apple's P/E has dropped from 37 to 28
• tea leaves suggest WTI will melt up in price
  
• and, of course, my favorite graph (link pending)
  
• so, there you have it
  

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 

DVN: I think DVN was up 7% two days in a row, but am not sure. I have already forgotten what DVN did yesterday. 

One breakout in two different sectors:

• JPMorgan: when it breaks out, it breaks out ...
• Apache: downtrend for the past ten years; if it breaks the trend today ... a monster breakout in the making; lousy finance statement; but great assets;
  

CNBC, best four hours:

• 8:00 - 9:00 a.m. CT
• 11:00 a.m. to noon CT
• 4:00 p.m. to 6:00 p.m. CT

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 

Investopedia: top energy stock picks for October, 2020. Link here.

• Best Value Energy:
• MPC
• APA
• Antero Midstream
• Fastest Growing:
• COP
• OKE
• Valero Energy
• Most momentum:
• Cimarex
• Devon
• Targa Resources
• Russell 1000
• Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF

I got serious about Devon on August 7, 2021, during a vacation to Flathead Lake where I had several days to clear my mind. Link here. 

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

New all-time record: US household net worth set new record. Link here.

• new all-time high: $141.7 trillion at end of June, 2021
• boosted by stock market gains and a pandemic-induced real-estate boom
• equity markets: added $3.5 trillion to household assets
• S&P 500 in 2Q21: 8.5% return with reinvested dividends included
• real estate: added $1.2 trillion
• total: household net worth rose by $5.9 trillion
• let's see $5.9 / $135.8 = 4.3%
• household savings:
• fell to $10.6 trillion from $10.8 trillion (yawn)
• balances in checking accounts rose to $3.6 trillion from $3.3 trillion
• net: -0.2 trillion +0.3 trillion = 0.1 trillion on the plus side
• the plague year?
• household wealth has rocketed b $31 trillion -- 28% -- since the first quarter of the plague year (2020) -- an unprecedented increase.
• real estate paper wealth increased by $1.2 trillion -- lots of spinoffs from this, including increased revenue for state governments through property taxes;
• big question: will "tax-the-rich" AOC be willing to repeal the Trump property tax deduction for high earners?

Good news on inflation: companies are running up against resistance to passing on higher prices to customers.