Thursday, September 23, 2021

End Of Day -- September 23, 2021

In a long note like this, there were be typographical and content errors. If any of this is important to you, go to the source. Facts and opinions are interspersed; it may be difficult to separate fact from opinions (or personal comments). 

This is not an investment site. Non-Bakken information is posted to help me put the Bakken in perspective when I come back to look at this post twenty-three years from now. 

For the archives, at the close, an incredible day on the market:

  • Dow: up 507 points
  • S&P 500: up 53 points
  • NASDAQ: up 155 points
  • WTI: $73.30 and all signs point to more upside
  • DXY: 93.095; down slightly
  • TYT: 1.435%

Ten year Treasury: the jump in the ten year Treasury today -- to over 1.4% -- is related more to what the central bank in the UK did today rather than what is going on in the US. -- CNBC panelists. From Reuters:

U.S. Treasury yields jumped on Thursday after the Federal Reserve opened the door to raising interest rates as early as next year, a potential move that was reinforced by the Bank of England's outlook on rates and a rate hike by the Norwegian central bank.

UK: if that which is now occurring in Great Britain was happening in the US, the market would have plummeted today, and folks would have been talking about a recession, not just a recession in the US, but a global recession. Here are the headlines in the UK today:

  • energy prices are surging in Great Britain;
  • there is great concern that the country will run out of natural gas this winter, critical for heating;
  • the UK announced that gasoline is now being rationed;
  • gasoline is being rationed because there is a shortage of truck drivers.

The  big question: why is there a shortage of truck drivers all of a sudden. The UK is not a particularly big country (or group of countries). "Shortage of truck drivers" almost has the feeling of a meme. Need to see what Reuters or ArgusMedia says about this. If it is a shortage of truck drivers, the Brits will do just fine.

So, now, let's get the links:

  • large Dutch zinc factory cuts output as Europe's energy crisis widens. Link here.
  • BP now shutting some UK gasoline stations due to lack of fuel. Link here.
  • Not just BP, but also XOM sees fuel retail sites affected by trucker shortage. Link here.
  • Vitol CEO sees gas-led crunch adding 500,000 bopd to oil demand. Link here.
  • Vitol sees Brent jumping to $80+ as energy crunch lifts demand. Link here.
  • Citi not ruling out $100-natural gas. Link here.

Peak oil?

  • shouldn't OPEC+ be ramping up supply fast, if they can. No inventory excuse any more. Link here.

Wheat: the EU has turned to Australia for durum wheat supply in the 2021 - 2022 marketing year amid supply tightness in Canada -- the world's largest producer of that crop. Link here 

US LNG: FERC authorizes / okays feedgas flows to Sabine Pass train 6. Link here

US distillate storage: at the lowest level in the last five years for this time of the year just as talks of gas-to-oil switching demand takes place outside of the US. Link here.

US stagflation: it's coming. And it will be max pain. Link here. For the archives.

US energy crisis: it's coming due to "all-or-nothing environmental climate change policy." Link here.

US electricity gird 101: the US electric power system in the lower 48. Three poorly coordinated, integrated sectors. East, west, and Texas. Link here.

On a lighter note, the US Fed is introducing another animal from the monetary menagerie to join the hawks, doves, bulls, and bears. The market is now, apparently, ready for a fast-moving tapir. Link here.

COP in the Permian: COP looking to sell some of its conventional oil and gas properties in the Permian Basin. Link here.

  • asset size: about $500 million
  • considered less valuable acreage than its unconventional acreage in the Permian
  • lower-value oil and gas producing properties in the Central Basin Platform and the Northern Shelf formation
  • combined production of 13K boepd
  • $500 million / 13K boepd = $40,000 / boepd

COP: steps up pressure to collect payment from Venezuela. Link to ArgusMedia.  

Nike (from CNBC, Fast Money):

  • missed expectations;
    • revenue of $12.25 billion missed expectations of $12.50 billion even though revenues were significantly higher than last year
  • demand not the problem; rather the temporary supply chain issues
  • supply chain issues;
    • sources 45% of its total global supply out of Vietnam
    • Vietnam had country-wide shutdown
    • shipments around the world held up at the ports
  • global sports (Olympics, etc, did well)
  • better numbers in China; numbers not quite as good in the US
  • margins doing well
  • panelists:
    • not a bit worried about Nike; when 45% of their supply is shut down in Vietnam....
    • stay clear near term --- Under Armour doesn't have the same headwinds 
    • thinks Nike tomorrow could be higher than close today; has already recovered some of the sell-off after hours.
  • bottom line: sounds like a scary headline; probably won't amount to much.

Back to the Bakken

NDIC is no longer updating scout tickets, active rigs, the "map." I'm not sure if production data is being updated. This has been going on since mid-July, 2021.

Active rigs, see note above. This is my best guess:

Active Rigs2611596657

Two new permits. #38579 - #38580, inclusive:

  • Operator: Rimrock Oil & Gas
  • Field: Heart Butte (Dunn County)
  • Comments:
    • Rimrock has permits for two Two Shields Butte wells, to be sited in NESE 8-149-92; sited 1925 FSL and 497 FEL; and 1912 FSL and 525 FEL.

Six permits renewed:

  • Hess: six SC-JW Hamilton permits in Williams County; SENE 13-153-99;

These were the Hess SC-JW Hamilton permits announced in 2018, link here:

  • 34998, conf, Hess, SC-JW Hamilton ...
  • 34997, conf, Hess, SC-JW Hamilton ...
  • 34996, conf, Hess, SC-JW Hamilton ...
  • 34995, conf, Hess, SC-JW Hamilton ... 
  • 34994, conf, Hess, SC-JW Hamilton ...
  • 34993, conf, Hess, SC-JW Hamilton ...
  • 34543, conf, Hess, SC-JW Hamilton ...
  • 34542, conf, Hess, SC-JW Hamilton ...
  • 34541, conf, Hess, SC-JW Hamilton ...
  • 34539, conf, Hess, SC-JW Hamilton ...
  • 34538, conf, Hess, SC-JW Hamilton ...

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