Friday, December 15, 2017

Director's Cut Is Out; October Data; Bakken Daily Production Jumps Over 7%; Yet, DUCs And Inactive Wells Increase -- December 15, 2017

Director's Cut for October, 2017, data.

Link here. NDIC site for calendar and links for past and current Director Cuts here.

The usual disclaimer applies. I do "this" quickly and there will be typographical and factual errors. If this is important to you, go to the source.

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The Data

Oil production
  • October, 2017: 1,185,499 bopd
  • September, 2017: 1,107,345 bopd
  • Delta: +78,154 bopd, +7.1%
  • huge jump in production
Producing wells:
  • October, 2017: 14,250
  • September, 2017: 14,199
  • Delta: an increase of 51 wells; an increase of 88 wells; 0.4% increase
Permitting
  • November, 2017: 119
  • October, 2017: 147 
  • September, 2017: 104
  • August, 2017: 101
  • July, 2017: 146 (huge jump)
Oil price (WTI), breakeven price statewide = $21
  • today: $49.25
  • November: $49.75
  • October: $43.56
  • September: $39.56
  • August: $37.93
  • July: $35.83
  • June: $34.72
Rig count:
  • today: 53
  • November: 54
  • October: 56
  • September: 56
  • August: 56
  • July: 58
  • June: 55
Wells not producing, total: about 2,300 wells not producing; that exceeds the number of wells completed in any year during the boom
  • waiting on completion: 899, up 36 from the end of September to the end of October;
  • estimated inactive well count: 1,471, up 27 from the end of September to the end of October
Takeaway capacity:
  • October data: including CBR to coastal refineries is more than adequate
  • September data: including CBR to coastal refineries is more than adequate
  • August data: including CBR to coastal refineries is more than adequate
  • July data: including CBR to coastal refineries is more than adequate
  • June data: including CBR to coastal refineries is more than adequate
  • May data: including CBR to coastal refineries is more than adequate (major change in verbiage)
Natural gas capture, getting "worse" and FBIR is major issue:
  • statewide: 84% (previous -- 83% [trending down to flat])
  • FBIR: 74% (previous -- 71% [somewhat better after a terrible month last month)
  • goal: 88% through October 31, 2020; then 91%
  • comment: last month was terrible; it's getting better on FBIR

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